Tariffs don’t work until they do
Comments
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We passed on the meaningless agreement. That's why talks stopped. China wanted the intellectual property stuff out and we walkedUW_Doog_Bot said:The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.
They need us more than we need them. And we are proceeding with that in mind
Kind of a new thing compared to our give away the store elites
Can China wait for the chance of their butt boy Biden winning? Stay tuned -
Even if Biden is the guy and they get their way I don't think they can debt spend their way to growth for another year and a half without an open US market. Last I looked they are sitting on a mountain of debt in the neighborhood of 250%+ of GDP. It's why they've been doing everything they can to create a monolithic police and security state so that when the bill comes due they won't need to run tanks over dissidents they'll just quietly make them disappear to organ farms for harvesting.RaceBannon said:
We passed on the meaningless agreement. That's why talks stopped. China wanted the intellectual property stuff out and we walkedUW_Doog_Bot said:The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.
They need us more than we need them. And we are proceeding with that in mind
Kind of a new thing compared to our give away the store elites
Can China wait for the chance of their butt boy Biden winning? Stay tuned -
This. And that's when the shit really hits the fan. As we saw in 2008, the world's economy is not tied exclusively to tech ... housing is fucking massive to the economy.UW_Doog_Bot said:The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.
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Chinese have been using Beverly Hills real estate as a bank. China periodically clamps down on cash leaving. Big effect on pricescreepycoug said:
This. And that's when the shit really hits the fan. As we saw in 2008, the world's economy is not tied exclusively to tech ... housing is fucking massive to the economy.UW_Doog_Bot said:The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.
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China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html -
I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.greenblood said:China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts. -
Already approved? By whom?greenblood said:China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
Just like North Korea denuclearization?
If you can’t trust the Chinese to negotiate a trade deal who can you trust? -
Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.UW_Doog_Bot said:
I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.greenblood said:China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though. -
It will be and won't be 2008. You've got a lot of differences in how things are interlaced. This resembles the Asian Financial Crisis build up a lot more than the US recession IMO.creepycoug said:
This. And that's when the shit really hits the fan. As we saw in 2008, the world's economy is not tied exclusively to tech ... housing is fucking massive to the economy.UW_Doog_Bot said:The Chinese Leadership can agree all they want. There's no way they are going to actually make the structural changes required to meet the demands made. It's either going to be a meaningless agreement made for show by both parties or put on your big girl panties for real tariffs to start. Chinese debt bubble could go pop because of it which also might mean another real estate adjustment across the globe. Either way, should be chinteresting.
While there's a whole lot of Chinese money going into real estate around the globe atm last I checked figures for the US housing market still peg foreign investment at less than 5% of total. (Realistically who fucking knows though, see the panama papers)
China is a house of cards but who in their right mind invested in China as anything other than a high risk proposition? They don't even actually recognize property rights after all.
China is also only the second largest market, by a long ways at that, as opposed to the US, plus European debt doesn't look so tied to it. The Chinese market can definitely effect foreign markets, but not remotely the way the US market does globally.
Then you also need to figure out if China dips into recession is that going to cause further monetary flight from China that may offset the decrease in total available demand from China.
Then figure out if the CCP is going to survive a recession or not. Who fucking knows?
My non-expert opinion is we will see an extended global slump as China enters a prolonged hangover as all of the stage 2 effects of its economic revolution begin to materialize. I think structurally though, the US is in a better position than it was in 2008 and while you might see markets take a fairly large downward adjustment initially from a lack of foreign demand most of the long term economics still look sound enough; labor participation(despite what hondo thinks), demographics, no significant over leveraged markets, interest rates have room to move, etc.
*shrug just what I'm hearing out here. Don't twist. -
My only hope on this point, and mind you I'm rooting for Team America not Trump, is that as Race said, why hasn't he just inked the deal already? The Chinese are willing to promise pie in the sky bullshit to make everyone look like a winner so long as none of it needs to be followed up on or enforced.CirrhosisDawg said:
Trump not willing to settle for symbolism? What else does trump have? He’ll cave and declare victory any minute now. LRR.UW_Doog_Bot said:
I'm already telling you, the CCP can't, not won't, can't, make the changes that will be required. Even if they could manage to enforce the rules it would essentially tank their economy and burst that debt bubble. The CCP's rule is predicated on economic growth. Take away state run corporate zombie debt spending and tech transfer growth and you are looking at recession in China. There goes their mandate from heaven to rule.greenblood said:China just tried to renegotiate already approved portions of the trade negotiations. That is why Trump is escalating the issue.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/china-trade-talks-trump-intl/index.html
My hope is that Trump's advisers already know this, and know they have the CCP by the balls atm, and aren't willing to settle for a symbolic win before the election campaign starts.
I do admire your advocacy for an all-out trade war to break China. Trump doesn’t have the intelligence or ability to wage it though.
Edit: Point of clarity, I want to see the CCP broken, not China. Ideally the CCP gets forced into a corner where they have to accept two party elections and systematic reform with minimal bloodshed. The CCP is an enemy. The Chinese People are not.
