Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

Mariners are playing .500 ball bitches!

135

Comments

  • RoadDawg55
    RoadDawg55 Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 30,604 Swaye's Wigwam
    They will play decent this month, then go 8-20 in June to officially end any Mariner talk except for the schmucks who want to cream over TaJuan Walker's dominant rehab start or some outfielder hitting .340 in AA.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • CuntWaffle
    CuntWaffle Member Posts: 22,500
    dnc said:

    HeretoBeatmyChest said:

    Other than Cano, the rest of the lineup is batting 255 or worse. Thats a fucking horrible offense. No way they win 80 games.

    For someone who is so good with advanced metrics in other sports, gotta admit I'm shocked to see you site something as meaningless as batting average.

    This offense is a dreckfest as always, but not because of it's batting average.

    They are 26th in OBP. 23rd in team BA. 25th OPS. That is fucking awful no matter how you look at it. Especially considering they have scored 4 runs or more in their last 8 games so they were even lower before that.

    I fail to see how batting average doesn't play a part in the dreckfest.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,855
    edited May 2014
    CuntWaffle said:

    dnc said:

    HeretoBeatmyChest said:

    Other than Cano, the rest of the lineup is batting 255 or worse. Thats a fucking horrible offense. No way they win 80 games.

    For someone who is so good with advanced metrics in other sports, gotta admit I'm shocked to see you site something as meaningless as batting average.

    This offense is a dreckfest as always, but not because of it's batting average.

    They are 26th in OBP. 23rd in team BA. 25th OPS. That is fucking awful no matter how you look at it. Especially considering they have scored 4 runs or more in their last 8 games so they were even lower before that.
    "This offense is a dreckfest as always"
    CuntWaffle said:

    I fail to see how batting average doesn't play a part in the dreckfest.

    If they could take a walk or hit for real pop they could still score runs despite their low average.

    Minnesota, for example, is just two spots ahead of the M's in batting average with a team BA of .244. We would all say that sucks. But they have an OBP of .335 (7th). Even with their SLG of .373 (21st, just one spot above the M's), they're 7th in runs scored.

    OBP has a higher correlation to runs scored than any other stat. Batting average has a pretty weak correlation to run scored.

    TL;DR, NOC, etc
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • CuntWaffle
    CuntWaffle Member Posts: 22,500
    And the Mariners have a worse OBP than they do Average.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,855
    CuntWaffle said:

    And the Mariners have a worse OBP than they do Average.

    No one is arguing otherwise.

    "This offense is a dreckfest as always"
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 11,453
    The closet Moogs are revealing themselves in this thread.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 11,453
    Some of you need to learn the difference between DNC saying using basic facts like batting average is dumb between him still saying this offense fucking blows goats.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • CuntWaffle
    CuntWaffle Member Posts: 22,500
    I am more commenting on the being "cautiously optimistic" part. There is no reason to be even slightly optimistic. The pitching is pretty good but you won't win unless you consistently score runs. The Mariners have been swinging the bats better but they always do this, it is all in the script.

    They will go back to being the team that loses 2-1. 3-0, 4-2 etc. soon enough.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,855
    CuntWaffle said:

    I am more commenting on the being "cautiously optimistic" part. There is no reason to be even slightly optimistic. The pitching is pretty good but you won't win unless you consistently score runs. The Mariners have been swinging the bats better but they always do this, it is all in the script.

    They will go back to being the team that loses 2-1. 3-0, 4-2 etc. soon enough.

    Looking more deeply into it, you're probably right. My thinking was 1) most of their year to date performances seem sustainable on an individual level and 2) on a team level their run differential is right in line with their record so they haven't been getting lucky by squeeking out fluky one run games.

    What I failed to notice, and this discussion illuminates, is that the offense is getting real lucky when it comes to run scored. Their team OBP and OPS are not capable of sustaining a 17th place in runs scored. They are simply getting lucky with RISP, and we know that won't continue. They are going to fall back towards 23-27, and that regression is going to hurt.

    I still think they're ultimately better than the team we've seen this far with Cano sure to hit for power at some point, Almonte 86'd and Iwakuma back, but those improvements will probably only make up for the luck they've had in runs scored so far.

    I still like my over 8.5 wins in June, though.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • PurpleJ
    PurpleJ Member Posts: 37,778
    We might not be mathematically eliminated by the All Star break. So there's that.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter