They will play decent this month, then go 8-20 in June to officially end any Mariner talk except for the schmucks who want to cream over TaJuan Walker's dominant rehab start or some outfielder hitting .340 in AA.
Other than Cano, the rest of the lineup is batting 255 or worse. Thats a fucking horrible offense. No way they win 80 games.
For someone who is so good with advanced metrics in other sports, gotta admit I'm shocked to see you site something as meaningless as batting average.
This offense is a dreckfest as always, but not because of it's batting average.
They are 26th in OBP. 23rd in team BA. 25th OPS. That is fucking awful no matter how you look at it. Especially considering they have scored 4 runs or more in their last 8 games so they were even lower before that.
I fail to see how batting average doesn't play a part in the dreckfest.
Other than Cano, the rest of the lineup is batting 255 or worse. Thats a fucking horrible offense. No way they win 80 games.
For someone who is so good with advanced metrics in other sports, gotta admit I'm shocked to see you site something as meaningless as batting average.
This offense is a dreckfest as always, but not because of it's batting average.
They are 26th in OBP. 23rd in team BA. 25th OPS. That is fucking awful no matter how you look at it. Especially considering they have scored 4 runs or more in their last 8 games so they were even lower before that.
I fail to see how batting average doesn't play a part in the dreckfest.
If they could take a walk or hit for real pop they could still score runs despite their low average.
Minnesota, for example, is just two spots ahead of the M's in batting average with a team BA of .244. We would all say that sucks. But they have an OBP of .335 (7th). Even with their SLG of .373 (21st, just one spot above the M's), they're 7th in runs scored.
OBP has a higher correlation to runs scored than any other stat. Batting average has a pretty weak correlation to run scored.
Some of you need to learn the difference between DNC saying using basic facts like batting average is dumb between him still saying this offense fucking blows goats.
I am more commenting on the being "cautiously optimistic" part. There is no reason to be even slightly optimistic. The pitching is pretty good but you won't win unless you consistently score runs. The Mariners have been swinging the bats better but they always do this, it is all in the script.
They will go back to being the team that loses 2-1. 3-0, 4-2 etc. soon enough.
I am more commenting on the being "cautiously optimistic" part. There is no reason to be even slightly optimistic. The pitching is pretty good but you won't win unless you consistently score runs. The Mariners have been swinging the bats better but they always do this, it is all in the script.
They will go back to being the team that loses 2-1. 3-0, 4-2 etc. soon enough.
Looking more deeply into it, you're probably right. My thinking was 1) most of their year to date performances seem sustainable on an individual level and 2) on a team level their run differential is right in line with their record so they haven't been getting lucky by squeeking out fluky one run games.
What I failed to notice, and this discussion illuminates, is that the offense is getting real lucky when it comes to run scored. Their team OBP and OPS are not capable of sustaining a 17th place in runs scored. They are simply getting lucky with RISP, and we know that won't continue. They are going to fall back towards 23-27, and that regression is going to hurt.
I still think they're ultimately better than the team we've seen this far with Cano sure to hit for power at some point, Almonte 86'd and Iwakuma back, but those improvements will probably only make up for the luck they've had in runs scored so far.
People need to revisit what they are reading into stats.
Clearly you score runs in baseball by getting runners on base.
There are two ways to get on base - base hits and walks. Both count the same from the standpoint of getting people on base and runs when they cross the plate.
Batting average if viewed from the standpoint of effectiveness of getting on base is missing the mark (obviously). If you look at it more from the standpoint of the ability for a hitter to be able to reach base in ABs that don't end walks, that's probably a better way to look at it.
As we all should know, the better the pitcher the less likely he is to walk batters in abundance. Relying on poor control and walks might be a good strategy against the AAAA pitchers in the league, but not going to work in October.
Moreover, a batters ability to draw walks is driven primarily off of two key attributes. The first being their ability to effectively navigate the strike zone through plate discipline. The second being their ability to threaten the pitcher through their ability as a hitter when the ball is put in play. A batter can have all the discipline in the world but if the pitcher isn't afraid of what the hitter does with a strike, he'll go right after them.
That's where power comes into play. It's important to have power because it makes the pitcher be more careful with what they offer. A hitter that has power but good plate discipline is what you're looking for. Add into that the ability to do more than have an all or nothing approach at the plate (like so many young hitters have today) and you have a superstar.
The only stats that really matter in baseball are runs scored and runs allowed (and yes, I realize that I'm being very, very obvious on that). You don't have to get a lot of hits if you are able to do a lot of things that are not necessarily easy to capture in stats like moving runs along, taking the extra base, etc. But it does come down to execution. People like to say that RBIs don't matter that much because it's all tied to opportunity. There's truth in that. But RBIs also measure the ability to execute and capitalize on the opportunities presented.
Forget all of the advanced metrics and stats for a second ... the Mariners are averaging 4.2 runs per game against a league average of 4.4. Considering that they are absolutely brutal with their OPS as a team of .666 versus a league average of .715, they are doing something right in executing when they have opportunities.
The Mariners are 16-15 on the season right now. In games that they've scored 3 runs or less, they are 1-12. If you want to look at their biggest problem right now, it's that 42% of the time right now they are scoring 3 runs or less in games. It's the lack of consistency in scoring runs that is their biggest problem. In contrast they are 10-6 in games when their pitching has given up 3 runs or less in a game.
Want to figure out how the Mariners need to get better - it's in that last paragraph.
But the last point or two falls right in line with what DNC was saying. They are doing something right right now with respect to scoring runs. That's a positive. I'm not 100% certain I'd agree that it's not sustainable ... manufacturing runs is more of an art than science and that's an inconvenient truth for stat heads that see outcomes as either yes or no. The negative is the OPS level. If I was to guess which one is the aberration in their runs scored metric, it's probably this one as there are a few guys hitting well below what you'd expect them to hit at.
Bottom line is that they need to be a team that is more consistently scoring 3-4 runs per night instead of the team that scores 8 one night and 0 the next to get to their 4 run average. Doing that will be the difference between them getting to and above .500 or falling short.
I am more commenting on the being "cautiously optimistic" part. There is no reason to be even slightly optimistic. The pitching is pretty good but you won't win unless you consistently score runs. The Mariners have been swinging the bats better but they always do this, it is all in the script.
They will go back to being the team that loses 2-1. 3-0, 4-2 etc. soon enough.
this is where you lost me. You can win with a below average offense with great pitching. Pitsburgh, LAD, ATL, KC. They all had good seasons with below average offenses. There isn't one way to build your team.
Do the Mariners have that caliber of pitching, no, especially in regards to the pen
People need to revisit what they are reading into stats.
Clearly you score runs in baseball by getting runners on base.
There are two ways to get on base - base hits and walks. Both count the same from the standpoint of getting people on base and runs when they cross the plate.
Batting average if viewed from the standpoint of effectiveness of getting on base is missing the mark (obviously). If you look at it more from the standpoint of the ability for a hitter to be able to reach base in ABs that don't end walks, that's probably a better way to look at it.
As we all should know, the better the pitcher the less likely he is to walk batters in abundance. Relying on poor control and walks might be a good strategy against the AAAA pitchers in the league, but not going to work in October.
Moreover, a batters ability to draw walks is driven primarily off of two key attributes. The first being their ability to effectively navigate the strike zone through plate discipline. The second being their ability to threaten the pitcher through their ability as a hitter when the ball is put in play. A batter can have all the discipline in the world but if the pitcher isn't afraid of what the hitter does with a strike, he'll go right after them.
That's where power comes into play. It's important to have power because it makes the pitcher be more careful with what they offer. A hitter that has power but good plate discipline is what you're looking for. Add into that the ability to do more than have an all or nothing approach at the plate (like so many young hitters have today) and you have a superstar.
The only stats that really matter in baseball are runs scored and runs allowed (and yes, I realize that I'm being very, very obvious on that). You don't have to get a lot of hits if you are able to do a lot of things that are not necessarily easy to capture in stats like moving runs along, taking the extra base, etc. But it does come down to execution. People like to say that RBIs don't matter that much because it's all tied to opportunity. There's truth in that. But RBIs also measure the ability to execute and capitalize on the opportunities presented.
Forget all of the advanced metrics and stats for a second ... the Mariners are averaging 4.2 runs per game against a league average of 4.4. Considering that they are absolutely brutal with their OPS as a team of .666 versus a league average of .715, they are doing something right in executing when they have opportunities.
The Mariners are 16-15 on the season right now. In games that they've scored 3 runs or less, they are 1-12. If you want to look at their biggest problem right now, it's that 42% of the time right now they are scoring 3 runs or less in games. It's the lack of consistency in scoring runs that is their biggest problem. In contrast they are 10-6 in games when their pitching has given up 3 runs or less in a game.
Want to figure out how the Mariners need to get better - it's in that last paragraph.
I am more commenting on the being "cautiously optimistic" part. There is no reason to be even slightly optimistic. The pitching is pretty good but you won't win unless you consistently score runs. The Mariners have been swinging the bats better but they always do this, it is all in the script.
They will go back to being the team that loses 2-1. 3-0, 4-2 etc. soon enough.
this is where you lost me. You can win with a below average offense with great pitching. Pitsburgh, LAD, ATL, KC. They all had good seasons with below average offenses. There isn't one way to build your team.
Do the Mariners have that caliber of pitching, no, especially in regards to the pen
I am more commenting on the being "cautiously optimistic" part. There is no reason to be even slightly optimistic. The pitching is pretty good but you won't win unless you consistently score runs. The Mariners have been swinging the bats better but they always do this, it is all in the script.
They will go back to being the team that loses 2-1. 3-0, 4-2 etc. soon enough.
Looking more deeply into it, you're probably right. My thinking was 1) most of their year to date performances seem sustainable on an individual level and 2) on a team level their run differential is right in line with their record so they haven't been getting lucky by squeeking out fluky one run games.
What I failed to notice, and this discussion illuminates, is that the offense is getting real lucky when it comes to run scored. Their team OBP and OPS are not capable of sustaining a 17th place in runs scored. They are simply getting lucky with RISP, and we know that won't continue. They are going to fall back towards 23-27, and that regression is going to hurt.
I still think they're ultimately better than the team we've seen this far with Cano sure to hit for power at some point, Almonte 86'd and Iwakuma back, but those improvements will probably only make up for the luck they've had in runs scored so far.
I am more commenting on the being "cautiously optimistic" part. There is no reason to be even slightly optimistic. The pitching is pretty good but you won't win unless you consistently score runs. The Mariners have been swinging the bats better but they always do this, it is all in the script.
They will go back to being the team that loses 2-1. 3-0, 4-2 etc. soon enough.
this is where you lost me. You can win with a below average offense with great pitching. Pitsburgh, LAD, ATL, KC. They all had good seasons with below average offenses. There isn't one way to build your team.
Do the Mariners have that caliber of pitching, no, especially in regards to the pen
KC and LAD in 2013 had much better offenses than the Mariners do. PIT and ATL are somewhat comparable but even then they are still better.
Besides none of those teams "won" anything.
sorry for looking at runs scored. The only statistic that actually matters. And I'll give u plenty of teams that won the WS with a mediocre offense. Giants twice to start, CWS in 06, phillies in 08 weren't that great an offense either in terms of run scored
Comments
I fail to see how batting average doesn't play a part in the dreckfest.
Minnesota, for example, is just two spots ahead of the M's in batting average with a team BA of .244. We would all say that sucks. But they have an OBP of .335 (7th). Even with their SLG of .373 (21st, just one spot above the M's), they're 7th in runs scored.
OBP has a higher correlation to runs scored than any other stat. Batting average has a pretty weak correlation to run scored.
TL;DR, NOC, etc
"This offense is a dreckfest as always"
They will go back to being the team that loses 2-1. 3-0, 4-2 etc. soon enough.
What I failed to notice, and this discussion illuminates, is that the offense is getting real lucky when it comes to run scored. Their team OBP and OPS are not capable of sustaining a 17th place in runs scored. They are simply getting lucky with RISP, and we know that won't continue. They are going to fall back towards 23-27, and that regression is going to hurt.
I still think they're ultimately better than the team we've seen this far with Cano sure to hit for power at some point, Almonte 86'd and Iwakuma back, but those improvements will probably only make up for the luck they've had in runs scored so far.
I still like my over 8.5 wins in June, though.
Clearly you score runs in baseball by getting runners on base.
There are two ways to get on base - base hits and walks. Both count the same from the standpoint of getting people on base and runs when they cross the plate.
Batting average if viewed from the standpoint of effectiveness of getting on base is missing the mark (obviously). If you look at it more from the standpoint of the ability for a hitter to be able to reach base in ABs that don't end walks, that's probably a better way to look at it.
As we all should know, the better the pitcher the less likely he is to walk batters in abundance. Relying on poor control and walks might be a good strategy against the AAAA pitchers in the league, but not going to work in October.
Moreover, a batters ability to draw walks is driven primarily off of two key attributes. The first being their ability to effectively navigate the strike zone through plate discipline. The second being their ability to threaten the pitcher through their ability as a hitter when the ball is put in play. A batter can have all the discipline in the world but if the pitcher isn't afraid of what the hitter does with a strike, he'll go right after them.
That's where power comes into play. It's important to have power because it makes the pitcher be more careful with what they offer. A hitter that has power but good plate discipline is what you're looking for. Add into that the ability to do more than have an all or nothing approach at the plate (like so many young hitters have today) and you have a superstar.
The only stats that really matter in baseball are runs scored and runs allowed (and yes, I realize that I'm being very, very obvious on that). You don't have to get a lot of hits if you are able to do a lot of things that are not necessarily easy to capture in stats like moving runs along, taking the extra base, etc. But it does come down to execution. People like to say that RBIs don't matter that much because it's all tied to opportunity. There's truth in that. But RBIs also measure the ability to execute and capitalize on the opportunities presented.
Forget all of the advanced metrics and stats for a second ... the Mariners are averaging 4.2 runs per game against a league average of 4.4. Considering that they are absolutely brutal with their OPS as a team of .666 versus a league average of .715, they are doing something right in executing when they have opportunities.
The Mariners are 16-15 on the season right now. In games that they've scored 3 runs or less, they are 1-12. If you want to look at their biggest problem right now, it's that 42% of the time right now they are scoring 3 runs or less in games. It's the lack of consistency in scoring runs that is their biggest problem. In contrast they are 10-6 in games when their pitching has given up 3 runs or less in a game.
Want to figure out how the Mariners need to get better - it's in that last paragraph.
But the last point or two falls right in line with what DNC was saying. They are doing something right right now with respect to scoring runs. That's a positive. I'm not 100% certain I'd agree that it's not sustainable ... manufacturing runs is more of an art than science and that's an inconvenient truth for stat heads that see outcomes as either yes or no. The negative is the OPS level. If I was to guess which one is the aberration in their runs scored metric, it's probably this one as there are a few guys hitting well below what you'd expect them to hit at.
Bottom line is that they need to be a team that is more consistently scoring 3-4 runs per night instead of the team that scores 8 one night and 0 the next to get to their 4 run average. Doing that will be the difference between them getting to and above .500 or falling short.
Do the Mariners have that caliber of pitching, no, especially in regards to the pen
LAD - 6th AVG, 9th OBP
KC - 9th AVG, 16th OBP
PIT- 22 AVG, 17 OBP
ATL - 20 AVG, 13 OBP
KC and LAD in 2013 had much better offenses than the Mariners do. PIT and ATL are somewhat comparable but even then they are still better.
Besides none of those teams "won" anything.
And I'll give u plenty of teams that won the WS with a mediocre offense. Giants twice to start, CWS in 06, phillies in 08 weren't that great an offense either in terms of run scored