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A Favor to Ask of @Pawz ... May We Have a Real Estate Fupdate??
Comments
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The number I've seen kicked around is mid-30%. I'll see if I can dig up an actual number.YellowSnow said:
Fair points. My two cents...RaceBannon said:
Its still relative. Our Seattle home dropped 200k in value between 05 and 07YellowSnow said:
Look ese, I was long Seattle single family when I sold in spite of all the bull shit. There’s no land to build on and too many high paying jerbs. The idea that Seattle real estate is gonna collapse is something for Tug fetishers.creepycoug said:
I think about it this way: if, in the middle of all this shit, houses in the city have continued to appreciate, then what's gonna happen when the sun comes back out, and people are boating in Lake Union and things return to normal?YellowSnow said:I’m rich biatch for selling NE Seattle!!! But still that house has only increased since I sold.
All that being said, I think zoom town RE outpaces SFO, PDX and SEA over the next few years.
Then came back the last decade
Location is still location but until the weight of rent failures and mortgage defaults is known we don't know
High end in top coastal areas will always have value because the buyer pool is world wide
I didn't imagine thousands of abandoned homes in burbs at the last crash. An entire industry sprung up
Politicians are of course in safe areas
I don’t know what percentage of single family in Seattle are owner occupied vs rentals. Also not all renters are equal right? We could have rented our home for between $3000 and $3500 a month. Renters with that kind of income probably haven’t lost their jobs due to Covid lockdowns. Apartments, are a whole different type of ball game.
I would also imagine borrowers who bought in Seattle after the crash are better qualified than those prior to 2008.
Finally, Amazon is really the game changer in Seattle and they weren’t the 3rd most valuable company in the world in 2008. Shit, they still officed up in some Art Deco building on Beacon Hill in them days.
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Good for you. Way to stick it out.Fishpo31 said:We got burned in 2008, had four rentals (all in Seattle) and had to dump them, including our newly-remodeled house. After hunkering down for several years, we moved, got a much better house (for same mortgage), and got back into the rental game again. NOT in Seattle...
Highly recommend biggerpockets.com and their various podcasts for that endeavor.
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I'm sure there will be differing opinions. But I like Shoreline, Bellevue, Kirkland and Renton.Doog_de_Jour said:@pawz - what do you see are the up and coming areas in the greater Seattle area?
I'm long on Shoreline due to light-rail and a city that is really friendly to development.
Bellevue and Redmond have the FANGs. The Bell-Red corridor is just starting to blow the fuck up.
Kirkland if true .... https://www.theurbanist.org/2021/01/07/kirkland-proposal-could-bring-300-foot-towers-to-85th-street-station-area/
Renton is a great location due to proximity of the airport and a city council that is friendly to redevelopment.
Everett is interesting with Paine Field, but Boeing door-ass-out makes it a complete wild card. -
Also, there is A LOT of white trash in Everett. Don't mean to offend, but it will take several cycles to push that out and north. When I lived near Mill Creek, the cops would respond by shrugging their shoulders and saying, "Everett man. Silver Lake apartments. They're like rats up there."pawz said:
I'm sure there will be differing opinions. But I like Shoreline, Bellevue, Kirkland and Renton.Doog_de_Jour said:@pawz - what do you see are the up and coming areas in the greater Seattle area?
I'm long on Shoreline due to light-rail and a city that is really friendly to development.
Bellevue and Redmond have the FANGs. The Bell-Red corridor is just starting to blow the fuck up.
Kirkland if true .... https://www.theurbanist.org/2021/01/07/kirkland-proposal-could-bring-300-foot-towers-to-85th-street-station-area/
Renton is a great location due to proximity of the airport and a city council that is friendly to redevelopment.
Everett is interesting with Paine Field, but Boeing door-ass-out makes it a complete wild card.
For that reason, I just dislike it when you get too far north.
Renton is chintresting. Used to be last choice on the eastside, but people are blowing up mid-centuries in Kennydale there and building mcmansions up and down those streets ... up by where triple chin Lowry used to live. Blowing the fuck up.
that's a pretty good list. looking farther out, I might jump in to an older Seattle neighborhood that would normally be out of my range but because people are a scurred now. the city is coming back. everybody has got to know that.
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TYFYS. This is gold right here. Great intel.pawz said:
TL,DR: 2 parts, your questions and update to my prior thoughts. Also a couple of you know me and where I work, but I'm not going to doxx myself publicly. Suffice to say I get to see things most don't on the residential side of RE.creepycoug said:Just caught up to this post from @pawz from October. Any fupdates for those of us thinking about making another move? I was thinking about Magnolia, and then I thought ... butt fuck, I've always wanted to live in Ravenna. Maybe then I could get back to my UW roots and embrace the program again, and quit fooling around with these Ducks.
Anyway, an update on what you're seeing (not hearing ... this isn't Dawgman and you're not Kim) I think would be of great general interest. Of all the things you can throw your money at, real estate is, to me, the most chintresting. It's also the only investment option that will keep you out of the rain.
In particular, do you think the Eastside is going at too high a premium relative to real value? Are there good deals (again, on a relative basis) to be had closer in to the city because of all that bullshit? Is this the time to strike on Queen Anne, Ravenna, Magnolia, etc.???
As I've said, I'm absolutely convinced it makes sense to be long on Seattle-area real estate. I don't think the city is in an inevitable decline.pawz said:
These are great questions, and ones I've been perplexed by since the beginning of COVID (and lets not forget the financial crises that hit weeks before that). I sell RE in W Bellevue and we also had a MONSTER August. Usually August is one of the slowest months of the year as families get in the last vacation tim of the summer before school starts.RoadDawg55 said:I haven’t gotten to the point of investing in real estate. I do watch a couple reality shows on real estate and saw that one of the guys on a show recently said August was the best month he ever had. If true (have no reason to believe it wouldn’t be) what are the reasons? What is causing people to buy right now?
From a seasonal perspective, the normal spring home buying season was delayed 2 mos due to CV. But that alone doesn't really address your question.
From a national perspective the RE market should be getting hammered. And in my opinion still will. With 25M people permanently out of work and the end of stimulus/unemployment insurance at the end of July, people flat aren't making their rent and/or subsequently their mortgage payments. I've heard from multiple sources foreclosures are stacking up at the banks, however they can't do anything with them yet as there is still a moratorium on foreclosures. Eventually these properties will flood the market.
I'm not sure these antidotes answer your questions either, but they should be pointed out nonetheless.
-The downtown Seattle condo market is crashing. Apartments in Seattle are lucky to have 85% occupancy rates and good luck with that amount of revenue coming in. People are door.ass.out to closed-quarter living.
The Eastside is a Tale of Two Cities. If properties are are priced well, they are FLYING off the page still. There is a huge push for people to buy New Construction OR Waterfront (lulz that there is any waterfront available). It's a couple times per week that I'm amazed by a sale in our market.
For example these two New Construction homes went Pending this past week at record prices for their location and without any view:
https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellevue/10605-SE-22nd-St-98004/home/510599
https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellevue/9841-NE-15th-St-98004/home/506002
The only conclusion I can draw is we? are the beneficiaries of the upper-leg of a "K-shaped" recovery. The push on the Eastside is based on FANG stocks being UP in a post-covid environment. Amazon is up 60-80%? It seems every other week Amazon purchases or leases another 1M sqft of office space. Facebook just bought the REI corporate building in the Spring District. Microsoft is going through the largest expansion of it's campus in decades. Google bought Kirkland Urban for $435M, then promptly bought the dirt next door for another $40M. In short they are ALL still hiring in BIG ways.
Add to that the these FANG execs and employees are fleeing CA and Seattle-proper in droves to get away from the politics and failures of it's governance. I'm not trying to make a political statement here (in spite of my Tug poasting history), it's just something I see and hear from clients/buyers on a daily basis.
Another factor in the post COVID environment is people who can work from home, are chosing to GTFO of the greater Seattle area all together - to the San Juans, Idaho/Sun Valley, Colorado/Vail/Aspen, Montana etc etc etc.
One thing that completely boggles my mind in light of the 25M who are never getting their jobs back, is how many people CAN - and ARE - writing checks for 8-figure residential homes. Every single day it amazes the sheer volume of people who seemingly come out of the woodwork to do it.
Lastly, and from a Macro investment perspective, (I will need to find the graph that supports this) but in the last half-dozen recessions this country has gone through Real Estate stays up or even when the stock market/economy are getting slaughtered. (The notable exception being '08 when it was a real estate bubble that popped.) Thus, you can make the case people with swelling stock portfolios are trying to move their holdings to RE in anticipation of a large impending/inevitable crash.
*I'm sure I'll have more thoughts to add as I ruminate on this poast.
PART I
Any fupdates for those of us thinking about making another move? I was thinking about Magnolia, and then I thought ... butt fuck, I've always wanted to live in Ravenna.
I like personally like Magnolia, however the big challenge with that location is access and egress. There is no easy way to get to the freeway (read: the airport). Getting rid of the viaduct put an end to that. I would also forget about Magnolia if the goal did not include big western or south facing views.
In particular, do you think the Eastside is going at too high a premium relative to real value?
No, I do not. Amazon is more or less moving to Bellevue. Worldwide Services (the largest unit at Amazon) has declared they will move their entire operations to Bellevue. As I indicated, in the previous post which remains true, the rest of the FANGs are making massive investments in Bellevue Redmond Kirkland. The latest is the recent announcement that Google bought the 10 acres of Lee Johnson Chevrolet at the corner of 405 and 85th. The rumor is 30-story towers.
https://www.geekwire.com/2020/google-keeps-growing-seattle-area-agrees-buy-10-acres-car-dealership-site-kirkland/
Are there good deals (again, on a relative basis) to be had closer in to the city because of all that bullshit?
With the exception of the downtown core (condos), there are no 'deals'. If you can get something off-market before it could be bid up, that's a deal. Especially if you think it would bid up.
This condo just closed and I thought it was a 'deal'. It enjoyed 180 degree views of Elliot bay to Mt Rainer. It closed at $652 per foot. Every other 1bd condo that claimed any sort of water view (read: NO water view) averages $800 per foot.
https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2607-Western-Ave-98121/unit-553/home/5299
Is this the time to strike on Queen Anne, Ravenna, Magnolia, etc.???
Maybe; yes; no. I think the big advantage for Ravenna is access to light rail. I'm not seeing any 'deals' just where the smart money is going.
As I've said, I'm absolutely convinced it makes sense to be long on Seattle-area real estate. I don't think the city is in an inevitable decline.
Emphasis on greater "area".
All things being equal, I would not purchase in the city limits. And I certainly would NOT own any rental property in the city limits. No fucking way. Luxury condos are getting hammered with Amazon on the move, and the city council is straight-up hostile to landlords.
PART II
Over all the market is extremely tight right now. If you are buying under $1.5-2, grab yer britches. There is just no inventory to satiate demand and I don't see it ending anytime soon. Obviously the exception is downtown condos which has an 1.5 attrition rate, meaning there is 50% more inventory than will sell in a 6 mos period.
From a national perspective the RE market should be getting hammered. And in my opinion still will
My thinking is evolving on this and to be determined. First, I think the inflation we are seeing is going straight into RE values. I think there are a lot of foreclosures backing up still, but my guess is the hedge fund world will step in and buy most, bringing equilibrium back to the market like they did after 2008.
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I will respond to some of the other posts too.
AMA
Bump diggitty since the thread got long. It's a good read. Thanks Pawz. -
Could not. Agree more. Kennydale.creepycoug said:
Also, there is A LOT of white trash in Everett. Don't mean to offend, but it will take several cycles to push that out and north. When I lived near Mill Creek, the cops would respond by shrugging their shoulders and saying, "Everett man. Silver Lake apartments. They're like rats up there."pawz said:
I'm sure there will be differing opinions. But I like Shoreline, Bellevue, Kirkland and Renton.Doog_de_Jour said:@pawz - what do you see are the up and coming areas in the greater Seattle area?
I'm long on Shoreline due to light-rail and a city that is really friendly to development.
Bellevue and Redmond have the FANGs. The Bell-Red corridor is just starting to blow the fuck up.
Kirkland if true .... https://www.theurbanist.org/2021/01/07/kirkland-proposal-could-bring-300-foot-towers-to-85th-street-station-area/
Renton is a great location due to proximity of the airport and a city council that is friendly to redevelopment.
Everett is interesting with Paine Field, but Boeing door-ass-out makes it a complete wild card.
For that reason, I just dislike it when you get too far north.
Renton is chintresting. Used to be last choice on the eastside, but people are blowing up mid-centuries in Kennydale there and building mcmansions up and down those streets ... up by where triple chin Lowry used to live. Blowing the fuck up.
that's a pretty good list. looking farther out, I might jump in to an older Seattle neighborhood that would normally be out of my range but because people are a scurred now. the city is coming back. everybody has got to know that.
Half-way between Bellevue and Renton with easy access to the airport, west-facing views over the lake. I think of it as a poor man's West of Market in Kirkland. -
Just the other day a 56-year old woman was planting flowers on 4th and Blanchard, and some punk came up and kicked her in the head. 10 fractures to her face and orbital socket. He just walked away.YellowSnow said:I’ll also add that all the bull shit that drove us away from Seattle doesn’t seem to bother most buyers. This could change, of course, but there’s gonna need to be more rapes and muggings in Green Lake.
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I'm not going to say the city won't come back, but there is a lot of worry by employers and retail right now that city politicians and bureaucrats are so far gone that crime and homelessness are going to drive people away. Retail is starting to vote with its feet. The defund police stuff, and new legislation which would basically legalize all misdemeanors committed by poor people, are freaking them out.creepycoug said:
Also, there is A LOT of white trash in Everett. Don't mean to offend, but it will take several cycles to push that out and north. When I lived near Mill Creek, the cops would respond by shrugging their shoulders and saying, "Everett man. Silver Lake apartments. They're like rats up there."pawz said:
I'm sure there will be differing opinions. But I like Shoreline, Bellevue, Kirkland and Renton.Doog_de_Jour said:@pawz - what do you see are the up and coming areas in the greater Seattle area?
I'm long on Shoreline due to light-rail and a city that is really friendly to development.
Bellevue and Redmond have the FANGs. The Bell-Red corridor is just starting to blow the fuck up.
Kirkland if true .... https://www.theurbanist.org/2021/01/07/kirkland-proposal-could-bring-300-foot-towers-to-85th-street-station-area/
Renton is a great location due to proximity of the airport and a city council that is friendly to redevelopment.
Everett is interesting with Paine Field, but Boeing door-ass-out makes it a complete wild card.
For that reason, I just dislike it when you get too far north.
Renton is chintresting. Used to be last choice on the eastside, but people are blowing up mid-centuries in Kennydale there and building mcmansions up and down those streets ... up by where triple chin Lowry used to live. Blowing the fuck up.
that's a pretty good list. looking farther out, I might jump in to an older Seattle neighborhood that would normally be out of my range but because people are a scurred now. the city is coming back. everybody has got to know that.
Downtown is a ghost town, figuratively speaking, and big employers are subletting office space. As an example, I believe that F5 is now subletting their new tower completed a couple years ago, which was supposed to house their entire workforce, and that they are not going to return in the future due to remote. I know that the Eastside is a quasi-extension of Seattle, but if tech is leaving Seattle to go there don't the people eventually follow if there is the associated development?
I'm not sure what the city offers that most suburbs don't at this point other than arts stuff and maybe if you want to be able to walk city blocks from your house to go out to eat. Could be me personalizing this, but the only thing I've missed since moving my family to the Kitsap Peninsula is the number of good restaurants nearby. And now I don't even have to jump on the ferry to go to work anymore. -
This is my exact take, Bleached. The only thing we miss in Seattle is restaurants, and before the Rona, we would go over once or twice a month for dinner / show.BleachedAnusDawg said:
I'm not going to say the city won't come back, but there is a lot of worry by employers and retail right now that city politicians and bureaucrats are so far gone that crime and homelessness are going to drive people away. Retail is starting to vote with its feet. The defund police stuff, and new legislation which would basically legalize all misdemeanors committed by poor people, are freaking them out.creepycoug said:
Also, there is A LOT of white trash in Everett. Don't mean to offend, but it will take several cycles to push that out and north. When I lived near Mill Creek, the cops would respond by shrugging their shoulders and saying, "Everett man. Silver Lake apartments. They're like rats up there."pawz said:
I'm sure there will be differing opinions. But I like Shoreline, Bellevue, Kirkland and Renton.Doog_de_Jour said:@pawz - what do you see are the up and coming areas in the greater Seattle area?
I'm long on Shoreline due to light-rail and a city that is really friendly to development.
Bellevue and Redmond have the FANGs. The Bell-Red corridor is just starting to blow the fuck up.
Kirkland if true .... https://www.theurbanist.org/2021/01/07/kirkland-proposal-could-bring-300-foot-towers-to-85th-street-station-area/
Renton is a great location due to proximity of the airport and a city council that is friendly to redevelopment.
Everett is interesting with Paine Field, but Boeing door-ass-out makes it a complete wild card.
For that reason, I just dislike it when you get too far north.
Renton is chintresting. Used to be last choice on the eastside, but people are blowing up mid-centuries in Kennydale there and building mcmansions up and down those streets ... up by where triple chin Lowry used to live. Blowing the fuck up.
that's a pretty good list. looking farther out, I might jump in to an older Seattle neighborhood that would normally be out of my range but because people are a scurred now. the city is coming back. everybody has got to know that.
Downtown is a ghost town, figuratively speaking, and big employers are subletting office space. As an example, I believe that F5 is now subletting their new tower completed a couple years ago, which was supposed to house their entire workforce, and that they are not going to return in the future due to remote. I know that the Eastside is a quasi-extension of Seattle, but if tech is leaving Seattle to go there don't the people eventually follow if there is the associated development?
I'm not sure what the city offers that most suburbs don't at this point other than arts stuff and maybe if you want to be able to walk city blocks from your house to go out to eat. Could be me personalizing this, but the only thing I've missed since moving my family to the Kitsap Peninsula is the number of good restaurants nearby. And now I don't even have to jump on the ferry to go to work anymore.
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Belltown is a shithole.DerekJohnson said:
Just the other day a 56-year old woman was planting flowers on 4th and Blanchard, and some punk came up and kicked her in the head. 10 fractures to her face and orbital socket. He just walked away.YellowSnow said:I’ll also add that all the bull shit that drove us away from Seattle doesn’t seem to bother most buyers. This could change, of course, but there’s gonna need to be more rapes and muggings in Green Lake.
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USMChawk said:
We really like all the sunshine and the neighborhood will be great once it’s completed. We’re the third family to move into our new development so we’ve put up with a lot of construction. It’ll probably be another year before it’s completed, and it can be aggravating (two flat tires so far), but I look at it as the cost of appreciation. The new homes are already selling for almost a $100k more than what we paid.creepycoug said:
Congrats. How do you like to so far? I’llUSMChawk said:
Yup. Moved to AZ back in July.creepycoug said:
Did you finally leave the north end? The state?USMChawk said:
I had a nice bidding war that is paying for half the cost of this hole in my backyardYellowSnow said:I’m rich biatch for selling NE Seattle!!! But still that house has only increased since I sold.
bet you like it quite a lot right about now eh??
Any other places you considered? All western US?
That’ll be a nice pool.
I work from home so all I needed was reliable internet. I’m not a humidity fan so that eliminated two thirds of the country. Honestly, Southern California’s climate would have been perfect if it wasn’t for the politics and high taxes. Plus I’d have to sell most of my guns and magazines. We drove through Boise and Twin Falls on the way here and I really liked what I saw. That was in the summer though. I do miss the green of the NW but not all the rain it takes to keep it that way. I won’t get to ski this year but that’s more from the Covid restrictions than the move.
Here’s a rendering of the completed pool. If you squint you can see the two barstools next to the stairs, facing the TV wall That’s where I plan to watch a lot of football.
