Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.
A Favor to Ask of @Pawz ... May We Have a Real Estate Fupdate??
creepycoug
Member Posts: 23,599
Just caught up to this post from @pawz from October. Any fupdates for those of us thinking about making another move? I was thinking about Magnolia, and then I thought ... butt fuck, I've always wanted to live in Ravenna. Maybe then I could get back to my UW roots and embrace the program again, and quit fooling around with these Ducks.
Anyway, an update on what you're seeing (not hearing ... this isn't Dawgman and you're not Kim) I think would be of great general interest. Of all the things you can throw your money at, real estate is, to me, the most chintresting. It's also the only investment option that will keep you out of the rain.
In particular, do you think the Eastside is going at too high a premium relative to real value? Are there good deals (again, on a relative basis) to be had closer in to the city because of all that bullshit? Is this the time to strike on Queen Anne, Ravenna, Magnolia, etc.???
As I've said, I'm absolutely convinced it makes sense to be long on Seattle-area real estate. I don't think the city is in an inevitable decline.
Anyway, an update on what you're seeing (not hearing ... this isn't Dawgman and you're not Kim) I think would be of great general interest. Of all the things you can throw your money at, real estate is, to me, the most chintresting. It's also the only investment option that will keep you out of the rain.
In particular, do you think the Eastside is going at too high a premium relative to real value? Are there good deals (again, on a relative basis) to be had closer in to the city because of all that bullshit? Is this the time to strike on Queen Anne, Ravenna, Magnolia, etc.???
As I've said, I'm absolutely convinced it makes sense to be long on Seattle-area real estate. I don't think the city is in an inevitable decline.
pawz said:
These are great questions, and ones I've been perplexed by since the beginning of COVID (and lets not forget the financial crises that hit weeks before that). I sell RE in W Bellevue and we also had a MONSTER August. Usually August is one of the slowest months of the year as families get in the last vacation tim of the summer before school starts.RoadDawg55 said:I haven’t gotten to the point of investing in real estate. I do watch a couple reality shows on real estate and saw that one of the guys on a show recently said August was the best month he ever had. If true (have no reason to believe it wouldn’t be) what are the reasons? What is causing people to buy right now?
From a seasonal perspective, the normal spring home buying season was delayed 2 mos due to CV. But that alone doesn't really address your question.
From a national perspective the RE market should be getting hammered. And in my opinion still will. With 25M people permanently out of work and the end of stimulus/unemployment insurance at the end of July, people flat aren't making their rent and/or subsequently their mortgage payments. I've heard from multiple sources foreclosures are stacking up at the banks, however they can't do anything with them yet as there is still a moratorium on foreclosures. Eventually these properties will flood the market.
I'm not sure these antidotes answer your questions either, but they should be pointed out nonetheless.
-The downtown Seattle condo market is crashing. Apartments in Seattle are lucky to have 85% occupancy rates and good luck with that amount of revenue coming in. People are door.ass.out to closed-quarter living.
The Eastside is a Tale of Two Cities. If properties are are priced well, they are FLYING off the page still. There is a huge push for people to buy New Construction OR Waterfront (lulz that there is any waterfront available). It's a couple times per week that I'm amazed by a sale in our market.
For example these two New Construction homes went Pending this past week at record prices for their location and without any view:
https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellevue/10605-SE-22nd-St-98004/home/510599
https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellevue/9841-NE-15th-St-98004/home/506002
The only conclusion I can draw is we? are the beneficiaries of the upper-leg of a "K-shaped" recovery. The push on the Eastside is based on FANG stocks being UP in a post-covid environment. Amazon is up 60-80%? It seems every other week Amazon purchases or leases another 1M sqft of office space. Facebook just bought the REI corporate building in the Spring District. Microsoft is going through the largest expansion of it's campus in decades. Google bought Kirkland Urban for $435M, then promptly bought the dirt next door for another $40M. In short they are ALL still hiring in BIG ways.
Add to that the these FANG execs and employees are fleeing CA and Seattle-proper in droves to get away from the politics and failures of it's governance. I'm not trying to make a political statement here (in spite of my Tug poasting history), it's just something I see and hear from clients/buyers on a daily basis.
Another factor in the post COVID environment is people who can work from home, are chosing to GTFO of the greater Seattle area all together - to the San Juans, Idaho/Sun Valley, Colorado/Vail/Aspen, Montana etc etc etc.
One thing that completely boggles my mind in light of the 25M who are never getting their jobs back, is how many people CAN - and ARE - writing checks for 8-figure residential homes. Every single day it amazes the sheer volume of people who seemingly come out of the woodwork to do it.
Lastly, and from a Macro investment perspective, (I will need to find the graph that supports this) but in the last half-dozen recessions this country has gone through Real Estate stays up or even when the stock market/economy are getting slaughtered. (The notable exception being '08 when it was a real estate bubble that popped.) Thus, you can make the case people with swelling stock portfolios are trying to move their holdings to RE in anticipation of a large impending/inevitable crash.
*I'm sure I'll have more thoughts to add as I ruminate on this poast.
Comments
All that being said, I think zoom town RE outpaces SFO, PDX and SEA over the next few years.
bet you like it quite a lot right about now eh??
Any other places you considered? All western US?
That’ll be a nice pool.
I kept waiting for the market to balance out and come back to earth for buyers. It's been 3 years now. FYFMFE.
I work from home so all I needed was reliable internet. I’m not a humidity fan so that eliminated two thirds of the country. Honestly, Southern California’s climate would have been perfect if it wasn’t for the politics and high taxes. Plus I’d have to sell most of my guns and magazines. We drove through Boise and Twin Falls on the way here and I really liked what I saw. That was in the summer though. I do miss the green of the NW but not all the rain it takes to keep it that way. I won’t get to ski this year but that’s more from the Covid restrictions than the move.
Here’s a rendering of the completed pool. If you squint you can see the two barstools next to the stairs, facing the TV wall That’s where I plan to watch a lot of football.
Then came back the last decade
Location is still location but until the weight of rent failures and mortgage defaults is known we don't know
High end in top coastal areas will always have value because the buyer pool is world wide
I didn't imagine thousands of abandoned homes in burbs at the last crash. An entire industry sprung up
Politicians are of course in safe areas
I don’t know what percentage of single family in Seattle are owner occupied vs rentals. Also not all renters are equal right? We could have rented our home for between $3000 and $3500 a month. Renters with that kind of income probably haven’t lost their jobs due to Covid lockdowns. Apartments, are a whole different type of ball game.
I would also imagine borrowers who bought in Seattle after the crash are better qualified than those prior to 2008.
Finally, Amazon is really the game changer in Seattle and they weren’t the 3rd most valuable company in the world in 2008. Shit, they still officed up in some Art Deco building on Beacon Hill in them days.