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Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

A Favor to Ask of @Pawz ... May We Have a Real Estate Fupdate??

creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,481
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Just caught up to this post from @pawz from October. Any fupdates for those of us thinking about making another move? I was thinking about Magnolia, and then I thought ... butt fuck, I've always wanted to live in Ravenna. Maybe then I could get back to my UW roots and embrace the program again, and quit fooling around with these Ducks.

Anyway, an update on what you're seeing (not hearing ... this isn't Dawgman and you're not Kim) I think would be of great general interest. Of all the things you can throw your money at, real estate is, to me, the most chintresting. It's also the only investment option that will keep you out of the rain.

In particular, do you think the Eastside is going at too high a premium relative to real value? Are there good deals (again, on a relative basis) to be had closer in to the city because of all that bullshit? Is this the time to strike on Queen Anne, Ravenna, Magnolia, etc.???

As I've said, I'm absolutely convinced it makes sense to be long on Seattle-area real estate. I don't think the city is in an inevitable decline.
pawz said:

I haven’t gotten to the point of investing in real estate. I do watch a couple reality shows on real estate and saw that one of the guys on a show recently said August was the best month he ever had. If true (have no reason to believe it wouldn’t be) what are the reasons? What is causing people to buy right now?

These are great questions, and ones I've been perplexed by since the beginning of COVID (and lets not forget the financial crises that hit weeks before that). I sell RE in W Bellevue and we also had a MONSTER August. Usually August is one of the slowest months of the year as families get in the last vacation tim of the summer before school starts.

From a seasonal perspective, the normal spring home buying season was delayed 2 mos due to CV. But that alone doesn't really address your question.

From a national perspective the RE market should be getting hammered. And in my opinion still will. With 25M people permanently out of work and the end of stimulus/unemployment insurance at the end of July, people flat aren't making their rent and/or subsequently their mortgage payments. I've heard from multiple sources foreclosures are stacking up at the banks, however they can't do anything with them yet as there is still a moratorium on foreclosures. Eventually these properties will flood the market.


I'm not sure these antidotes answer your questions either, but they should be pointed out nonetheless.

-The downtown Seattle condo market is crashing. Apartments in Seattle are lucky to have 85% occupancy rates and good luck with that amount of revenue coming in. People are door.ass.out to closed-quarter living.


The Eastside is a Tale of Two Cities. If properties are are priced well, they are FLYING off the page still. There is a huge push for people to buy New Construction OR Waterfront (lulz that there is any waterfront available). It's a couple times per week that I'm amazed by a sale in our market.

For example these two New Construction homes went Pending this past week at record prices for their location and without any view:
https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellevue/10605-SE-22nd-St-98004/home/510599
https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellevue/9841-NE-15th-St-98004/home/506002


The only conclusion I can draw is we? are the beneficiaries of the upper-leg of a "K-shaped" recovery. The push on the Eastside is based on FANG stocks being UP in a post-covid environment. Amazon is up 60-80%? It seems every other week Amazon purchases or leases another 1M sqft of office space. Facebook just bought the REI corporate building in the Spring District. Microsoft is going through the largest expansion of it's campus in decades. Google bought Kirkland Urban for $435M, then promptly bought the dirt next door for another $40M. In short they are ALL still hiring in BIG ways.

Add to that the these FANG execs and employees are fleeing CA and Seattle-proper in droves to get away from the politics and failures of it's governance. I'm not trying to make a political statement here (in spite of my Tug poasting history), it's just something I see and hear from clients/buyers on a daily basis.

Another factor in the post COVID environment is people who can work from home, are chosing to GTFO of the greater Seattle area all together - to the San Juans, Idaho/Sun Valley, Colorado/Vail/Aspen, Montana etc etc etc.


One thing that completely boggles my mind in light of the 25M who are never getting their jobs back, is how many people CAN - and ARE - writing checks for 8-figure residential homes. Every single day it amazes the sheer volume of people who seemingly come out of the woodwork to do it.


Lastly, and from a Macro investment perspective, (I will need to find the graph that supports this) but in the last half-dozen recessions this country has gone through Real Estate stays up or even when the stock market/economy are getting slaughtered. (The notable exception being '08 when it was a real estate bubble that popped.) Thus, you can make the case people with swelling stock portfolios are trying to move their holdings to RE in anticipation of a large impending/inevitable crash.



*I'm sure I'll have more thoughts to add as I ruminate on this poast.

YellowSnowpawzDerekJohnson
«13

Comments

  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Posts: 23,104
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments
    I’m rich biatch for selling NE Seattle!!! But still that house has only increased since I sold.
    creepycougFishpo31pawz
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,481
    Standard Supporter 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments

    I’m rich biatch for selling NE Seattle!!! But still that house has only increased since I sold.

    I think about it this way: if, in the middle of all this shit, houses in the city have continued to appreciate, then what's gonna happen when the sun comes back out, and people are boating in Lake Union and things return to normal?
    YellowSnow
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,481
    Standard Supporter 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments
    USMChawk said:

    I’m rich biatch for selling NE Seattle!!! But still that house has only increased since I sold.

    I had a nice bidding war that is paying for half the cost of this hole in my backyard



    Did you finally leave the north end? The state?
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,481
    Standard Supporter 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments
    edited January 14
    USMChawk said:

    USMChawk said:

    I’m rich biatch for selling NE Seattle!!! But still that house has only increased since I sold.

    I had a nice bidding war that is paying for half the cost of this hole in my backyard



    Did you finally leave the north end? The state?
    Yup. Moved to AZ back in July.
    Congrats. How do you like to so far? I’ll
    bet you like it quite a lot right about now eh??

    Any other places you considered? All western US?

    That’ll be a nice pool.
  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Posts: 20,570
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments
    I want pawz I post for a very different reason
    pawz
  • pawzpawz Posts: 9,515
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Awesomes 5,000 Up Votes Seventh Anniversary
    FML.... Free Pub! and all. I'm exhausted and going to bed. Will respond tomorrow.

    creepycougPitchfork51
  • biak1biak1 Posts: 2,630
    2,500 Awesomes 2,500 Up Votes Seventh Anniversary 2500 Comments
    As a Millennial, fuck these Seattle area prices. I don't understand how anybody can afford a house around here unless they work at Amazon or Microsoft. Nobody I know can/has put down 20% for a down payment, that rule of thumb is dead. Which leaves you saddled with PMI depending on what you do put down.

    I kept waiting for the market to balance out and come back to earth for buyers. It's been 3 years now. FYFMFE.
    Pitchfork511to392831weretaken
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Posts: 64,745
    Swaye's Wigwam 50000 Comments 10,000 Awesomes 10,000 Up Votes

    I’m rich biatch for selling NE Seattle!!! But still that house has only increased since I sold.

    I think about it this way: if, in the middle of all this shit, houses in the city have continued to appreciate, then what's gonna happen when the sun comes back out, and people are boating in Lake Union and things return to normal?
    Look ese, I was long Seattle single family when I sold in spite of all the bull shit. There’s no land to build on and too many high paying jerbs. The idea that Seattle real estate is gonna collapse is something for Tug fetishers.

    All that being said, I think zoom town RE outpaces SFO, PDX and SEA over the next few years.
    Its still relative. Our Seattle home dropped 200k in value between 05 and 07

    Then came back the last decade

    Location is still location but until the weight of rent failures and mortgage defaults is known we don't know

    High end in top coastal areas will always have value because the buyer pool is world wide

    I didn't imagine thousands of abandoned homes in burbs at the last crash. An entire industry sprung up

    Politicians are of course in safe areas
    pawz1to392831weretaken
  • I’m rich biatch for selling NE Seattle!!! But still that house has only increased since I sold.

    I think about it this way: if, in the middle of all this shit, houses in the city have continued to appreciate, then what's gonna happen when the sun comes back out, and people are boating in Lake Union and things return to normal?
    Look ese, I was long Seattle single family when I sold in spite of all the bull shit. There’s no land to build on and too many high paying jerbs. The idea that Seattle real estate is gonna collapse is something for Tug fetishers.

    All that being said, I think zoom town RE outpaces SFO, PDX and SEA over the next few years.
    Its still relative. Our Seattle home dropped 200k in value between 05 and 07

    Then came back the last decade

    Location is still location but until the weight of rent failures and mortgage defaults is known we don't know

    High end in top coastal areas will always have value because the buyer pool is world wide

    I didn't imagine thousands of abandoned homes in burbs at the last crash. An entire industry sprung up

    Politicians are of course in safe areas
    This is it for me. I would, however, tell anyone listening to absolutely not buy real estate in Seattle if it's an investment property. The regulatory burdens and associated risk are not worth the returns. You can make that money in most areas of Puget Sound.
    RaceBannonDerekJohnsoncreepycougDoog_de_Jour
  • USMChawkUSMChawk Posts: 1,428
    Swaye's Wigwam 2,500 Awesomes 1,000 Up Votes 250 Answers

    USMChawk said:

    USMChawk said:

    USMChawk said:

    I’m rich biatch for selling NE Seattle!!! But still that house has only increased since I sold.

    I had a nice bidding war that is paying for half the cost of this hole in my backyard



    Did you finally leave the north end? The state?
    Yup. Moved to AZ back in July.
    Congrats. How do you like to so far? I’ll
    bet you like it quite a lot right about now eh??

    Any other places you considered? All western US?

    That’ll be a nice pool.
    We really like all the sunshine and the neighborhood will be great once it’s completed. We’re the third family to move into our new development so we’ve put up with a lot of construction. It’ll probably be another year before it’s completed, and it can be aggravating (two flat tires so far), but I look at it as the cost of appreciation. The new homes are already selling for almost a $100k more than what we paid.

    I work from home so all I needed was reliable internet. I’m not a humidity fan so that eliminated two thirds of the country. Honestly, Southern California’s climate would have been perfect if it wasn’t for the politics and high taxes. Plus I’d have to sell most of my guns and magazines. We drove through Boise and Twin Falls on the way here and I really liked what I saw. That was in the summer though. I do miss the green of the NW but not all the rain it takes to keep it that way. I won’t get to ski this year but that’s more from the Covid restrictions than the move.

    Here’s a rendering of the completed pool. If you squint you can see the two barstools next to the stairs, facing the TV wall That’s where I plan to watch a lot of football.



    That's my dream backyard right there
    Thanks Stalin. I thought I had a hefty budget but my dreams were bigger. Compromises were made and I still went 25% over budget. Not seen is the courtyard on the side of the house and side yard landscaping. The cost of travertine...
    Pitchfork51creepycougpawzDerekJohnson
  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Posts: 23,104
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments
    edited January 14

    I’m rich biatch for selling NE Seattle!!! But still that house has only increased since I sold.

    I think about it this way: if, in the middle of all this shit, houses in the city have continued to appreciate, then what's gonna happen when the sun comes back out, and people are boating in Lake Union and things return to normal?
    Look ese, I was long Seattle single family when I sold in spite of all the bull shit. There’s no land to build on and too many high paying jerbs. The idea that Seattle real estate is gonna collapse is something for Tug fetishers.

    All that being said, I think zoom town RE outpaces SFO, PDX and SEA over the next few years.
    Its still relative. Our Seattle home dropped 200k in value between 05 and 07

    Then came back the last decade

    Location is still location but until the weight of rent failures and mortgage defaults is known we don't know

    High end in top coastal areas will always have value because the buyer pool is world wide

    I didn't imagine thousands of abandoned homes in burbs at the last crash. An entire industry sprung up

    Politicians are of course in safe areas
    Fair points. My two cents...

    I don’t know what percentage of single family in Seattle are owner occupied vs rentals. Also not all renters are equal right? We could have rented our home for between $3000 and $3500 a month. Renters with that kind of income probably haven’t lost their jobs due to Covid lockdowns. Apartments, are a whole different type of ball game.

    I would also imagine borrowers who bought in Seattle after the crash are better qualified than those prior to 2008.

    Finally, Amazon is really the game changer in Seattle and they weren’t the 3rd most valuable company in the world in 2008. Shit, they still officed up in some Art Deco building on Beacon Hill in them days.
    creepycoug
  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Posts: 23,104
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments
    I’ll also add that all the bull shit that drove us away from Seattle doesn’t seem to bother most buyers. This could change, of course, but there’s gonna need to be more rapes and muggings in Green Lake.
    creepycoug
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,481
    Standard Supporter 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments
    USMChawk said:

    USMChawk said:

    USMChawk said:

    I’m rich biatch for selling NE Seattle!!! But still that house has only increased since I sold.

    I had a nice bidding war that is paying for half the cost of this hole in my backyard



    Did you finally leave the north end? The state?
    Yup. Moved to AZ back in July.
    Congrats. How do you like to so far? I’ll
    bet you like it quite a lot right about now eh??

    Any other places you considered? All western US?

    That’ll be a nice pool.
    We really like all the sunshine and the neighborhood will be great once it’s completed. We’re the third family to move into our new development so we’ve put up with a lot of construction. It’ll probably be another year before it’s completed, and it can be aggravating (two flat tires so far), but I look at it as the cost of appreciation. The new homes are already selling for almost a $100k more than what we paid.

    I work from home so all I needed was reliable internet. I’m not a humidity fan so that eliminated two thirds of the country. Honestly, Southern California’s climate would have been perfect if it wasn’t for the politics and high taxes. Plus I’d have to sell most of my guns and magazines. We drove through Boise and Twin Falls on the way here and I really liked what I saw. That was in the summer though. I do miss the green of the NW but not all the rain it takes to keep it that way. I won’t get to ski this year but that’s more from the Covid restrictions than the move.

    Here’s a rendering of the completed pool. If you squint you can see the two barstools next to the stairs, facing the TV wall That’s where I plan to watch a lot of football.



    Very nice man. Very nice.
  • Fishpo31Fishpo31 Posts: 389
    250 Answers 500 Awesomes 250 Up Votes 100 Comments
    We got burned in 2008, had four rentals (all in Seattle) and had to dump them, including our newly-remodeled house. After hunkering down for several years, we moved, got a much better house (for same mortgage), and got back into the rental game again. NOT in Seattle...
    Cougzzpawz
  • creepycougcreepycoug Posts: 17,481
    Standard Supporter 10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments
    Fishpo31 said:

    We got burned in 2008, had four rentals (all in Seattle) and had to dump them, including our newly-remodeled house. After hunkering down for several years, we moved, got a much better house (for same mortgage), and got back into the rental game again. NOT in Seattle...

    Makes sense, and glad to hear you recovered. Is the notion that rents in Seattle are volatile? Or is it that underlying value is volatile? Because I gotta say, I've not seen prices drop in Seattle, ever, since I moved up here in 87.
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