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ELECTION GAME THREAD
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MSNBC reporting LIVE! from Biden headquarters where workers are busily building a Victory! stage in the street while confirming Biden will indeed be making a speech tonight.
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https://vogue.com/article/hillary-clinton-javits-center-reaction-piecedoogie said:MSNBC reporting LIVE! from Biden headquarters where workers are busily building a Victory! stage in the street while confirming Biden will indeed be making a speech tonight.
The glass ceiling remained unbroken -
Nah - always stay around while the band plays.RaceBannon said:
Trump cam win big enough to beat the cheatHouhusky said:Trump is not going to win PA... There was always going to be too much cheating in philly
BREITBART is your source??!
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/03/the-steal-is-on-in-pennsylvania-poll-watchers-denied-access-illegal-campaigning-at-polling-locations/
Looks like this is over early. Let's go home
Then have a few cocktails in the parking lot.
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Kamala commanding troops to Sharpen the Pitchforks.
Her people are going to Vote and #TakeBackTheWhitehouse -
Early turn out in a pandemic where everyone got a ballot and was encouraged to vote early
Historic
Not really. Meaningless. -
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HYG, @RaceBannon
https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/11/03/final-call-shy-vote-pollsters-predict-solid-trump-win/If they’re wrong, no one will ever let them live this down. If they’re right, they will turn the polling industry on its head. And whether people factor these polls into their predictions today likely depends on which outcome they prefer.
Trafalgar has consistently used its own methodology to get around the “shy Trump voter” issue, which it used successfully to predict the 2016 election outcome. Last week Trafalgar had polls showing Trump winning key swing states, and told Newsweek yesterday that they see another Trump win in the offing:One of the few pollsters who accurately predicted that President Donald Trump would win the 2016 presidential election told Newsweek he feels “more confident every day” that Trump will also win his bid for re-election.
Key to Trump’s path to victory are his “shy” supporters who aren’t necessarily telling most pollsters the truth about who they will vote for because of societal pressures that have only grown in the last four years, according to Robert Cahaly, a pollster and senior strategist with the Atlanta-based polling company Trafalgar Group. …
Based on Trafalgar Group’s voter surveys, Cahaly said he believes the election on November 3 will have a similar outcome. “I feel more confident every day, because we get more data every day,” Cahaly said.
Trafalgar has more polls out today to bolster its releases from last week. This time, however, Cahaly sees Trump pulling ahead in November:The “shy Trump voter” bandwagon today has at least one new pollster on board, the little-known Wick. In a Medium post, Wick CEO David Burrell explains that he revamped the protocols used in their surveys to bridge the alleged shy-voter gap. He also predicts a Trump victory in the Electoral College, and explained how they recalculated their assumptions to get that result.
It’s too long and arcane to excerpt easily, but Burrell does lay out a fairly comprehensive argument. He describes “strange response rates” and “unexplained negative space” among working-class white voters as indications of this hidden vote, as well as an overrepresentation of early voters in their data. Burrell then devised new methodology to work around those issues in their last round of polling.
If the explanation is arcane (and somewhat anecdotal), the Wick findings are relatively succinct, however:- Trump is going to win a historic percentage of African Americans and Hispanics vote (which will probably be the go-to-explanation for why polls were wrong).
- Pollsters acknowledge this shift in minorities and believe that this ground is covered by Biden’s gains in white voters in all demographics, but this ground is not covered because those gains are with white voters who are willing to take polls (which should be the go-to-explanation for why polls were wrong).
- If Biden does win in a close race, after polls showed a blowout for months, we need to ask why public opinion polling isn’t working in our democracy.
- Trump is going to win a historic percentage of African Americans and Hispanics vote (which will probably be the go-to-explanation for why polls were wrong).
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So Biden can claim victory, but Trump can’t according to these same people. No surprise.doogie said:MSNBC reporting LIVE! from Biden headquarters where workers are busily building a Victory! stage in the street while confirming Biden will indeed be making a speech tonight.
