Trump is essentially a slightly larger than 2016-sized polling error away from winning, but he also has the Supreme Court on his side, which could be important given the amount of late tallying expected from the massive VBM numbers.
The polls, based on early voting, are off markedly in: AZ FL GA
Three likely wins for Trump, states to be unconcerned about. The only way Biden can win those three is if: 1. GOP-registered voters voted for Biden at a markedly higher rate than Dems did Trump 2. Independents are pretty heavy Biden. If neither of those things are true, Trump is winning those three. We should know these answers by 4 or 5.
Miami-Dade should be watched pretty closely because early voting data showed that Trump did shockingly well there based on party registration (GOP held a slight lead, although IND was pretty high). If turnout there is high today Biden could have a chance (because a lot of Dems there haven't voted yet), but Trump is a cinch in Tampa, so even decent results in Miami-Dade hand Florida to Trump.
Ohio and Iowa are Trump's, no question IMO. Biden is not winning Iowa (see: Selzer) and early voting data in other swing states makes me pretty confident there's a swing-state polling error in Trump's direction again (the size of which is hard to tell, but likely a baseline of about 3 pts).
Turnout in Texas is sky high, specifically in the urban areas that helped Beto, which could be a big time issue for Trump. A shit ton of new voters have been registered in Texas since 2018 and Beto only lost by like 250k votes. Obviously, Trump loses Texas, he's fucked. But, if there's good turnout today, he'll be fine.
Michigan and Wisconsin are Biden, as is Minnesota, if all votes get counted. The Supreme Court could help Trump out here though - he can contest the tallies after tonight, and tonight's numbers will almost surely show him ahead.
Pennsylvania is the question. It's not likely that PA is actually 7 pts. The in-person vote today means a lot. If it's a huge Trump lead - 30% is to be expected, but if it's in the range of 50% - Trump is winning the state.
This election is a lot closer than people think. I'd put it at 60-40 Biden assuming a 50-60 mil turnout, but I would be highly surprised by a Biden blowout. If turnout today is above 70 mil, Trump likely has it in the bag.
Jake Tapper can suck my balls btw
This is gonna be a fun week as mail votes get counted
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This is gonna be a fun week as mail votes get counted
My resource on numbers is an awesome Twitter account that calls things early and isn’t biased.