ELECTION GAME THREAD
Comments
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PA has the most electoral votes of the top-4. Trump can win by getting PA, only, of that list provided he also wins in NC.Swaye said:
I feel pretty good about the bottom four. Top 4 not as much. If Trump takes the bottom 4, what's the math look like? I'm too lazy and stupid to figure this out.thechatch said:It’s NY so who cares.
PA
WI
MN
MI
OH
TX
FL
AZ
NY is moving the chains between the 20s. PA is first and goal from the 3 for both campaigns. -
Update GOP is up by like 200k total votes in Florida so Trump's got it in the bag, means AZ likely as well.jhfstyle24 said:Trump is essentially a slightly larger than 2016-sized polling error away from winning, but he also has the Supreme Court on his side, which could be important given the amount of late tallying expected from the massive VBM numbers.
The polls, based on early voting, are off markedly in:
AZ
FL
GA
Three likely wins for Trump, states to be unconcerned about. The only way Biden can win those three is if:
1. GOP-registered voters voted for Biden at a markedly higher rate than Dems did Trump
2. Independents are pretty heavy Biden.
If neither of those things are true, Trump is winning those three. We should know these answers by 4 or 5.
Miami-Dade should be watched pretty closely because early voting data showed that Trump did shockingly well there based on party registration (GOP held a slight lead, although IND was pretty high). If turnout there is high today Biden could have a chance (because a lot of Dems there haven't voted yet), but Trump is a cinch in Tampa, so even decent results in Miami-Dade hand Florida to Trump.
Ohio and Iowa are Trump's, no question IMO. Biden is not winning Iowa (see: Selzer) and early voting data in other swing states makes me pretty confident there's a swing-state polling error in Trump's direction again (the size of which is hard to tell, but likely a baseline of about 3 pts).
Turnout in Texas is sky high, specifically in the urban areas that helped Beto, which could be a big time issue for Trump. A shit ton of new voters have been registered in Texas since 2018 and Beto only lost by like 250k votes. Obviously, Trump loses Texas, he's fucked. But, if there's good turnout today, he'll be fine.
Michigan and Wisconsin are Biden, as is Minnesota, if all votes get counted. The Supreme Court could help Trump out here though - he can contest the tallies after tonight, and tonight's numbers will almost surely show him ahead.
Pennsylvania is the question. It's not likely that PA is actually 7 pts. The in-person vote today means a lot. If it's a huge Trump lead - 30% is to be expected, but if it's in the range of 50% - Trump is winning the state.
This election is a lot closer than people think. I'd put it at 60-40 Biden assuming a 50-60 mil turnout, but I would be highly surprised by a Biden blowout. If turnout today is above 70 mil, Trump likely has it in the bag.
Only states to watch now are NC PA and TX. Will determine everything -
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YKWYWFPurpleThrobber said:Just talked to a cheesehead bidness associate and his view from the hinterlands.
His position is damned near the same as mine. His eyes see massive Trump momentum and a red wave surging today. Nobody in their right mind in the middle would endanger their family or their home by coming 'out' for Trump, liking or commenting strongly on social media, putting up a flag or a sign.
But everyone he talks to in the states says they are voting red across the board.
CSB. His wife is hot, so fuck off. -
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WestlinnDuck said:
Today, the dems are rooting for the communists. Imagine.PurpleThrobber said:Houhusky said:Trumps best tweet of his presidency
Also contrast with the "dont lose heart", "we dont need florida" posts
Haven't been this sprung for USA! USA! USA! since Eruzione put the biscuit in the basket for the good guys.
The left's greatest sports moment of their lifetim.
Real Americans didn't accept thatresultsham either. The silver medals are still locked away.
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I can't see Trump losing Texas, so it's basically NC and PA then, provided everything else breaks like expected?jhfstyle24 said:
Update GOP is up by like 200k total votes in Florida so Trump's got it in the bag, means AZ likely as well.jhfstyle24 said:Trump is essentially a slightly larger than 2016-sized polling error away from winning, but he also has the Supreme Court on his side, which could be important given the amount of late tallying expected from the massive VBM numbers.
The polls, based on early voting, are off markedly in:
AZ
FL
GA
Three likely wins for Trump, states to be unconcerned about. The only way Biden can win those three is if:
1. GOP-registered voters voted for Biden at a markedly higher rate than Dems did Trump
2. Independents are pretty heavy Biden.
If neither of those things are true, Trump is winning those three. We should know these answers by 4 or 5.
Miami-Dade should be watched pretty closely because early voting data showed that Trump did shockingly well there based on party registration (GOP held a slight lead, although IND was pretty high). If turnout there is high today Biden could have a chance (because a lot of Dems there haven't voted yet), but Trump is a cinch in Tampa, so even decent results in Miami-Dade hand Florida to Trump.
Ohio and Iowa are Trump's, no question IMO. Biden is not winning Iowa (see: Selzer) and early voting data in other swing states makes me pretty confident there's a swing-state polling error in Trump's direction again (the size of which is hard to tell, but likely a baseline of about 3 pts).
Turnout in Texas is sky high, specifically in the urban areas that helped Beto, which could be a big time issue for Trump. A shit ton of new voters have been registered in Texas since 2018 and Beto only lost by like 250k votes. Obviously, Trump loses Texas, he's fucked. But, if there's good turnout today, he'll be fine.
Michigan and Wisconsin are Biden, as is Minnesota, if all votes get counted. The Supreme Court could help Trump out here though - he can contest the tallies after tonight, and tonight's numbers will almost surely show him ahead.
Pennsylvania is the question. It's not likely that PA is actually 7 pts. The in-person vote today means a lot. If it's a huge Trump lead - 30% is to be expected, but if it's in the range of 50% - Trump is winning the state.
This election is a lot closer than people think. I'd put it at 60-40 Biden assuming a 50-60 mil turnout, but I would be highly surprised by a Biden blowout. If turnout today is above 70 mil, Trump likely has it in the bag.
Only states to watch now are NC PA and TX. Will determine everything -
Trump is not going to win PA... There was always going to be too much cheating in philly
BREITBART is your source??!
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/03/the-steal-is-on-in-pennsylvania-poll-watchers-denied-access-illegal-campaigning-at-polling-locations/ -
1960 Illinois all over again
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Trump cam win big enough to beat the cheatHouhusky said:Trump is not going to win PA... There was always going to be too much cheating in philly
BREITBART is your source??!
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/03/the-steal-is-on-in-pennsylvania-poll-watchers-denied-access-illegal-campaigning-at-polling-locations/
Looks like this is over early. Let's go home
