NY is moving the chains between the 20s. PA is first and goal from the 3 for both campaigns.
I feel pretty good about the bottom four. Top 4 not as much. If Trump takes the bottom 4, what's the math look like? I'm too lazy and stupid to figure this out.
PA has the most electoral votes of the top-4. Trump can win by getting PA, only, of that list provided he also wins in NC.
Trump is essentially a slightly larger than 2016-sized polling error away from winning, but he also has the Supreme Court on his side, which could be important given the amount of late tallying expected from the massive VBM numbers.
The polls, based on early voting, are off markedly in: AZ FL GA
Three likely wins for Trump, states to be unconcerned about. The only way Biden can win those three is if: 1. GOP-registered voters voted for Biden at a markedly higher rate than Dems did Trump 2. Independents are pretty heavy Biden. If neither of those things are true, Trump is winning those three. We should know these answers by 4 or 5.
Miami-Dade should be watched pretty closely because early voting data showed that Trump did shockingly well there based on party registration (GOP held a slight lead, although IND was pretty high). If turnout there is high today Biden could have a chance (because a lot of Dems there haven't voted yet), but Trump is a cinch in Tampa, so even decent results in Miami-Dade hand Florida to Trump.
Ohio and Iowa are Trump's, no question IMO. Biden is not winning Iowa (see: Selzer) and early voting data in other swing states makes me pretty confident there's a swing-state polling error in Trump's direction again (the size of which is hard to tell, but likely a baseline of about 3 pts).
Turnout in Texas is sky high, specifically in the urban areas that helped Beto, which could be a big time issue for Trump. A shit ton of new voters have been registered in Texas since 2018 and Beto only lost by like 250k votes. Obviously, Trump loses Texas, he's fucked. But, if there's good turnout today, he'll be fine.
Michigan and Wisconsin are Biden, as is Minnesota, if all votes get counted. The Supreme Court could help Trump out here though - he can contest the tallies after tonight, and tonight's numbers will almost surely show him ahead.
Pennsylvania is the question. It's not likely that PA is actually 7 pts. The in-person vote today means a lot. If it's a huge Trump lead - 30% is to be expected, but if it's in the range of 50% - Trump is winning the state.
This election is a lot closer than people think. I'd put it at 60-40 Biden assuming a 50-60 mil turnout, but I would be highly surprised by a Biden blowout. If turnout today is above 70 mil, Trump likely has it in the bag.
Update GOP is up by like 200k total votes in Florida so Trump's got it in the bag, means AZ likely as well.
Only states to watch now are NC PA and TX. Will determine everything
Just talked to a cheesehead bidness associate and his view from the hinterlands.
His position is damned near the same as mine. His eyes see massive Trump momentum and a red wave surging today. Nobody in their right mind in the middle would endanger their family or their home by coming 'out' for Trump, liking or commenting strongly on social media, putting up a flag or a sign.
But everyone he talks to in the states says they are voting red across the board.
Trump is essentially a slightly larger than 2016-sized polling error away from winning, but he also has the Supreme Court on his side, which could be important given the amount of late tallying expected from the massive VBM numbers.
The polls, based on early voting, are off markedly in: AZ FL GA
Three likely wins for Trump, states to be unconcerned about. The only way Biden can win those three is if: 1. GOP-registered voters voted for Biden at a markedly higher rate than Dems did Trump 2. Independents are pretty heavy Biden. If neither of those things are true, Trump is winning those three. We should know these answers by 4 or 5.
Miami-Dade should be watched pretty closely because early voting data showed that Trump did shockingly well there based on party registration (GOP held a slight lead, although IND was pretty high). If turnout there is high today Biden could have a chance (because a lot of Dems there haven't voted yet), but Trump is a cinch in Tampa, so even decent results in Miami-Dade hand Florida to Trump.
Ohio and Iowa are Trump's, no question IMO. Biden is not winning Iowa (see: Selzer) and early voting data in other swing states makes me pretty confident there's a swing-state polling error in Trump's direction again (the size of which is hard to tell, but likely a baseline of about 3 pts).
Turnout in Texas is sky high, specifically in the urban areas that helped Beto, which could be a big time issue for Trump. A shit ton of new voters have been registered in Texas since 2018 and Beto only lost by like 250k votes. Obviously, Trump loses Texas, he's fucked. But, if there's good turnout today, he'll be fine.
Michigan and Wisconsin are Biden, as is Minnesota, if all votes get counted. The Supreme Court could help Trump out here though - he can contest the tallies after tonight, and tonight's numbers will almost surely show him ahead.
Pennsylvania is the question. It's not likely that PA is actually 7 pts. The in-person vote today means a lot. If it's a huge Trump lead - 30% is to be expected, but if it's in the range of 50% - Trump is winning the state.
This election is a lot closer than people think. I'd put it at 60-40 Biden assuming a 50-60 mil turnout, but I would be highly surprised by a Biden blowout. If turnout today is above 70 mil, Trump likely has it in the bag.
Update GOP is up by like 200k total votes in Florida so Trump's got it in the bag, means AZ likely as well.
Only states to watch now are NC PA and TX. Will determine everything
I can't see Trump losing Texas, so it's basically NC and PA then, provided everything else breaks like expected?
MSNBC reporting LIVE! from Biden headquarters where workers are busily building a Victory! stage in the street while confirming Biden will indeed be making a speech tonight.
MSNBC reporting LIVE! from Biden headquarters where workers are busily building a Victory! stage in the street while confirming Biden will indeed be making a speech tonight.
If they’re wrong, no one will ever let them live this down. If they’re right, they will turn the polling industry on its head. And whether people factor these polls into their predictions today likely depends on which outcome they prefer.
Trafalgar has consistently used its own methodology to get around the “shy Trump voter” issue, which it used successfully to predict the 2016 election outcome. Last week Trafalgar had polls showing Trump winning key swing states, and told Newsweek yesterday that they see another Trump win in the offing:
One of the few pollsters who accurately predicted that President Donald Trump would win the 2016 presidential election told Newsweek he feels “more confident every day” that Trump will also win his bid for re-election.
Key to Trump’s path to victory are his “shy” supporters who aren’t necessarily telling most pollsters the truth about who they will vote for because of societal pressures that have only grown in the last four years, according to Robert Cahaly, a pollster and senior strategist with the Atlanta-based polling company Trafalgar Group. …
Based on Trafalgar Group’s voter surveys, Cahaly said he believes the election on November 3 will have a similar outcome. “I feel more confident every day, because we get more data every day,” Cahaly said.
Trafalgar has more polls out today to bolster its releases from last week. This time, however, Cahaly sees Trump pulling ahead in November:
The “shy Trump voter” bandwagon today has at least one new pollster on board, the little-known Wick. In a Medium post, Wick CEO David Burrell explains that he revamped the protocols used in their surveys to bridge the alleged shy-voter gap. He also predicts a Trump victory in the Electoral College, and explained how they recalculated their assumptions to get that result.
It’s too long and arcane to excerpt easily, but Burrell does lay out a fairly comprehensive argument. He describes “strange response rates” and “unexplained negative space” among working-class white voters as indications of this hidden vote, as well as an overrepresentation of early voters in their data. Burrell then devised new methodology to work around those issues in their last round of polling.
If the explanation is arcane (and somewhat anecdotal), the Wick findings are relatively succinct, however:
Trump is going to win a historic percentage of African Americans and Hispanics vote (which will probably be the go-to-explanation for why polls were wrong).
Pollsters acknowledge this shift in minorities and believe that this ground is covered by Biden’s gains in white voters in all demographics, but this ground is not covered because those gains are with white voters who are willing to take polls (which should be the go-to-explanation for why polls were wrong).
If Biden does win in a close race, after polls showed a blowout for months, we need to ask why public opinion polling isn’t working in our democracy.
MSNBC reporting LIVE! from Biden headquarters where workers are busily building a Victory! stage in the street while confirming Biden will indeed be making a speech tonight.
So Biden can claim victory, but Trump can’t according to these same people. No surprise.
Comments
Only states to watch now are NC PA and TX. Will determine everything
Found the coronabros
The left's greatest sports moment of their lifetim.
Real Americans didn't accept that
resultsham either. The silver medals are still locked away.BREITBART is your source??!
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/03/the-steal-is-on-in-pennsylvania-poll-watchers-denied-access-illegal-campaigning-at-polling-locations/
Looks like this is over early. Let's go home
The glass ceiling remained unbroken
Then have a few cocktails in the parking lot.
Her people are going to Vote and #TakeBackTheWhitehouse
Historic
Not really. Meaningless.
https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/11/03/final-call-shy-vote-pollsters-predict-solid-trump-win/
Trafalgar has consistently used its own methodology to get around the “shy Trump voter” issue, which it used successfully to predict the 2016 election outcome. Last week Trafalgar had polls showing Trump winning key swing states, and told Newsweek yesterday that they see another Trump win in the offing:
Key to Trump’s path to victory are his “shy” supporters who aren’t necessarily telling most pollsters the truth about who they will vote for because of societal pressures that have only grown in the last four years, according to Robert Cahaly, a pollster and senior strategist with the Atlanta-based polling company Trafalgar Group. …
Based on Trafalgar Group’s voter surveys, Cahaly said he believes the election on November 3 will have a similar outcome. “I feel more confident every day, because we get more data every day,” Cahaly said.
Trafalgar has more polls out today to bolster its releases from last week. This time, however, Cahaly sees Trump pulling ahead in November:
It’s too long and arcane to excerpt easily, but Burrell does lay out a fairly comprehensive argument. He describes “strange response rates” and “unexplained negative space” among working-class white voters as indications of this hidden vote, as well as an overrepresentation of early voters in their data. Burrell then devised new methodology to work around those issues in their last round of polling.
If the explanation is arcane (and somewhat anecdotal), the Wick findings are relatively succinct, however: