Science is science. The Corona Bros just don’t follow it.
And you are assuming media outlets do
Silver's science appeared to be lacking in 2016 while I had Trump from the jump
The media outlets (other than Fox) are all in for Biden. Same as it ever was.
The point where I disagree with many of you guysm was how off the poles were in 2016. Trump was within the margin of error (+/- 2%) in a lot of polls for the blue wall states in that year. It shouldn't have been as big of shock to the pundits as it was.
I think the polls can definitely get it wrong from time to time. But the way its looking at the moment, they have to be off by a lot more than 2016 for Trump to win.
Science is science. The Corona Bros just don’t follow it.
And you are assuming media outlets do
Silver's science appeared to be lacking in 2016 while I had Trump from the jump
The media outlets (other than Fox) are all in for Biden. Same as it ever was.
The point where I disagree with many of you guysm was how off the poles were in 2016. Trump was within the margin of error (+/- 2%) in a lot of polls for the blue wall states in that year. It shouldn't have been as big of shock to the pundits as it was.
I think the polls can definitely get it wrong from time to time. But the way its looking at the moment, they have to be off by a lot more than 2016 for Trump to win.
As we have discussed the last poll is always close enough to save face. If you look at that Silver link he was WAY off while I was right. As usual
Win percentage is the main weapon of choice. 90% Hills the day of
Does anyone seriously think Biden is up by 13 points nationwide?
Two variables at play: How big is the silent majority and to what lengths will the left stuff the ballots?
It's pretty clear the media will run cover for any trash canned Trump ballets and not bat an eye when more dead people show up to vote D. They are all in on this front.
How many people are sitting on their hands, itching to get rid of this mad Max antifa bullshit in the streets? How many middle class average Joe's just doing the best they can are tired of being called racist for expecting law and order and accountability?
Science is science. The Corona Bros just don’t follow it.
And you are assuming media outlets do
Silver's science appeared to be lacking in 2016 while I had Trump from the jump
The media outlets (other than Fox) are all in for Biden. Same as it ever was.
The point where I disagree with many of you guysm was how off the poles were in 2016. Trump was within the margin of error (+/- 2%) in a lot of polls for the blue wall states in that year. It shouldn't have been as big of shock to the pundits as it was.
I think the polls can definitely get it wrong from time to time. But the way its looking at the moment, they have to be off by a lot more than 2016 for Trump to win.
As we have discussed the last poll is always close enough to save face. If you look at that Silver link he was WAY off while I was right. As usual
Win percentage is the main weapon of choice. 90% Hills the day of
Does anyone seriously think Biden is up by 13 points nationwide?
Let's clean a few things up, shall we:
1- Biden isn't ahead by 13 pts nationally. The RCP national average has been around 7 for a while. But NOC about the national number. The RCP average for in places like OH, FL and NC has been a dead heat ( i.e., Biden up by 1- 3 pts). I think it's probable he holds serve in these states. Biden's polling lead in MI, WI and PA is larger (around 5% in each state). If he can't close the gap to like 2 or 3 points down I don't see it happening.
2- Silver didn't flex Trump to 28% last minute in 2016 to not look bad. It varied from time to time, but there were points along the way where they had Trump in a dead heat. For example 50.1% chance to win on July 30, 2016 and 45.2% on Sept. 26.
Did Trump lose the support that won him the swing states in 2016? No
Do those voters know that things were as good as theyve ever been economically in this country before the covid scam? Yes
Do those voters think the Dems shutting down everything over a bad flu is a good idea? No
Are many of these voters pissed their livelihood has been shit on by a bad flu? Yes
Do those voters want to defund the police? No
Do those voters agree with riots burning businesses? No
Is anyone on the Left excited by a Biden/Harris ticket? No
Pretty simple really. Trump has not lost his base, Biden has no enthusiasm. It's game over before it even started
But but but the national polls and media!! You chumps learned nothing 4 years ago
He won the blue wall rust belt states by a c-hair against the most hated Dem nominee in a long time. Biden sucks and is senile old geezer, but isn't hated to the degree Hillary was/is. You don't think things could change by a few hundred thousand votes?
Did Trump lose the support that won him the swing states in 2016? No
Do those voters know that things were as good as theyve ever been economically in this country before the covid scam? Yes
Do those voters think the Dems shutting down everything over a bad flu is a good idea? No
Are many of these voters pissed their livelihood has been shit on by a bad flu? Yes
Do those voters want to defund the police? No
Do those voters agree with riots burning businesses? No
Is anyone on the Left excited by a Biden/Harris ticket? No
Pretty simple really. Trump has not lost his base, Biden has no enthusiasm. It's game over before it even started
But but but the national polls and media!! You chumps learned nothing 4 years ago
He won the blue wall rust belt states by a c-hair against the most hated Dem nominee in a long time. Biden sucks and is senile old geezer, but isn't hated to the degree Hillary was/is. You don't think things could change by a few hundred thousand votes?
Nope. The same people that hate Hillary hate Biden. Hth
all I have to say is there are a lot of scared folks out there hiding behind masks now. If those folks are thinking the Vid is Trump's fault even in the slightest or think that the masking up of America is correct Trump is out.
I live in the frigging country and right next to me 3 people were out working in their yard today wearing fucking masks. Lots of Trump and Culp signs out here but the mask wearing is getting weirder every day
Hillary was 100 times the candidate Joe is. In a traditional sense she was 100 times the candidate Trump is.
So running a traditional candidate 100 times worse than Hillary will work this time
#science
I agree with this, but I also think the cheating side got lazy in 2016 because everyone thought she was going to win. This time they mailed out tens of millions of unsolicited ballots to try and not repeat that mistake.
Comments
The point where I disagree with many of you guysm was how off the poles were in 2016. Trump was within the margin of error (+/- 2%) in a lot of polls for the blue wall states in that year. It shouldn't have been as big of shock to the pundits as it was.
I think the polls can definitely get it wrong from time to time. But the way its looking at the moment, they have to be off by a lot more than 2016 for Trump to win.
Win percentage is the main weapon of choice. 90% Hills the day of
Does anyone seriously think Biden is up by 13 points nationwide?
Two variables at play: How big is the silent majority and to what lengths will the left stuff the ballots?
It's pretty clear the media will run cover for any trash canned Trump ballets and not bat an eye when more dead people show up to vote D. They are all in on this front.
How many people are sitting on their hands, itching to get rid of this mad Max antifa bullshit in the streets? How many middle class average Joe's just doing the best they can are tired of being called racist for expecting law and order and accountability?
The left, who a week ago was defending the Post Office to the death is calling this voter suppression and an outrage
Abbott (R) Texas says the drop off boxes are not secure. Trump (R) America says the PO is not secure. Biden (D) The Basement said huh?
I'm with Joe
Cook it
1- Biden isn't ahead by 13 pts nationally. The RCP national average has been around 7 for a while. But NOC about the national number. The RCP average for in places like OH, FL and NC has been a dead heat ( i.e., Biden up by 1- 3 pts). I think it's probable he holds serve in these states. Biden's polling lead in MI, WI and PA is larger (around 5% in each state). If he can't close the gap to like 2 or 3 points down I don't see it happening.
2- Silver didn't flex Trump to 28% last minute in 2016 to not look bad. It varied from time to time, but there were points along the way where they had Trump in a dead heat. For example 50.1% chance to win on July 30, 2016 and 45.2% on Sept. 26.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Fact
Close poll favors Trump who is underrepresented
Fact
Silver blew the 16 election. I didn't
Fact
Did Trump lose the support that won him the swing states in 2016? No
Do those voters know that things were as good as theyve ever been economically in this country before the covid scam? Yes
Do those voters think the Dems shutting down everything over a bad flu is a good idea? No
Are many of these voters pissed their livelihood has been shit on by a bad flu? Yes
Do those voters want to defund the police? No
Do those voters agree with riots burning businesses? No
Is anyone on the Left excited by a Biden/Harris ticket? No
Pretty simple really. Trump has not lost his base, Biden has no enthusiasm. It's game over before it even started
But but but the national polls and media!! You chumps learned nothing 4 years ago
So running a traditional candidate 100 times worse than Hillary will work this time
#science
I live in the frigging country and right next to me 3 people were out working in their yard today wearing fucking masks. Lots of Trump and Culp signs out here but the mask wearing is getting weirder every day