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Trump Confidence to Win Pole - 5 weeks out edition

YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 35,943 Founders Club
in Tug Tavern
What is your percentage of confidence in Trump's re-election as of today?

Trump Confidence to Win Pole - 5 weeks out edition 41 votes

81% or better
17% 7 votes
51% to 80%
26% 11 votes
25% to 50%
31% 13 votes
10% to 24%
19% 8 votes
Turn out the lights, the party is over (i.e., no chance in hell)
4% 2 votes
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Comments

  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 35,943 Founders Club
    LebamDawg said:

    I actually don't have a clue what will happen other than total destruction of major cities.

    My new neighborhood because it's full of CA, Portland and Seattle ex-pats seems to be pretty Biden / Harris yard sign heavy. Cross the river and it starts to feel more MAGA. Still if Trump pulls it off, I don't think my neighbors will try to burn things down.
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  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 107,089 Founders Club
    Anecdotally I see zero Biden signs or bumper stickers and I've been everywhere man. Traveling around SO Cal the last couple of days scraping up some work that we can lose when Biden shuts down the country again.

    Now, maybe Biden voters are scared to show support but Hillary was massively represented in 16

    See Trump flags and big Trump signs along the freeway. Biden wins California. Trump win America

    https://foxnews.com/media/abc-martha-raddatz-enthusiasm-joe-biden

    Interesting article on the enthusiasm gap from an ABC writer who left her basement to find out

    The Vid isn't much of an issue.
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  • HouhuskyHouhusky Member Posts: 5,537
    Trump could preform perfectly and he wouldn't have a chance.

    The last time around they were illegally spying on his campaign and they had FBI agents trying to get their dicks wet from sub 6s creating insurance plans and no one thought Trump was actually a threat to win.

    The media is more consolidated against him, the population more radicalized, and the left/DNC is no longer ruled by the iron fist of the Clinton but content to unite behind a Manchurian candidate in Biden and then hash it out between themselves after the election.

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  • Bob_CBob_C Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 10,789 Swaye's Wigwam
    edited September 2020
    RaceBannon said:

    Anecdotally I see zero Biden signs or bumper stickers and I've been everywhere man. Traveling around SO Cal the last couple of days scraping up some work that we can lose when Biden shuts down the country again.

    Now, maybe Biden voters are scared to show support but Hillary was massively represented in 16

    See Trump flags and big Trump signs along the freeway. Biden wins California. Trump win America

    https://foxnews.com/media/abc-martha-raddatz-enthusiasm-joe-biden

    Interesting article on the enthusiasm gap from an ABC writer who left her basement to find out

    The Vid isn't much of an issue.

    Far more Bernie out there than Biden that I see.

    Frankly in my Issaquah neighborhood, I’ve seen more Culp out there than any of the presidentials. There was a Trump sign in my neighbors yard last week that lasted a whole 24 hours.
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  • Fire_Marshall_BillFire_Marshall_Bill Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 24,271 Founders Club
    Trump wins. A lot of people think he's a vile narcissist but the alternative of Joe and da ho plus SJW re education brainwashing is worse.
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  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 35,943 Founders Club
    RaceBannon said:

    Anecdotally I see zero Biden signs or bumper stickers and I've been everywhere man. Traveling around SO Cal the last couple of days scraping up some work that we can lose when Biden shuts down the country again.

    Now, maybe Biden voters are scared to show support but Hillary was massively represented in 16

    See Trump flags and big Trump signs along the freeway. Biden wins California. Trump win America

    https://foxnews.com/media/abc-martha-raddatz-enthusiasm-joe-biden

    Interesting article on the enthusiasm gap from an ABC writer who left her basement to find out

    The Vid isn't much of an issue.

    I think Hillary only won Riverside County by 5%. Still a lotta MAGA there. He actually won Deschutes County by 3 points even though it doesn't feel that way in our hood.
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  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 23,598
    Still not convinced last night's gaffe disappears, but still think Biden brings too much nothing to lose to him. If he does, it will be epically embarrassing for everyone.
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  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 107,089 Founders Club
    RoadDawg55 said:

    It's hard to know. It seems like Biden rolls to victory, but the silent majority is still out there. People with money vote republican and they also are less likely to engage in loud Twitter wars.

    People I know irl who don't live on social media think Trump wins

    They want him to so its meaningless but still.

    People who want him who hang on Twitter and the like think he loses

    The debate thread was like a Huskie game thread
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  • pawzpawz Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 21,178 Founders Club
    These ranges are a little too broad.

    I really think it's a coin-flip, edge Trump. 52-55%
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  • GrundleStiltzkinGrundleStiltzkin Member Posts: 61,515 Standard Supporter
    Fire_Marshall_Bill said:

    Trump wins. A lot of people think he's a vile narcissist but the alternative of Joe and da ho plus SJW re education brainwashing is worse.

    Speaking of Bernie.
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  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 107,089 Founders Club
    GrundleStiltzkin said:

    Fire_Marshall_Bill said:

    Trump wins. A lot of people think he's a vile narcissist but the alternative of Joe and da ho plus SJW re education brainwashing is worse.

    Speaking of Bernie.
    He already got canceled but let's do it again
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  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Member Posts: 44,618 Standard Supporter
    GrundleStiltzkin said:

    Fire_Marshall_Bill said:

    Trump wins. A lot of people think he's a vile narcissist but the alternative of Joe and da ho plus SJW re education brainwashing is worse.

    Speaking of Bernie.
    There are multiple dicks Bernies.

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  • TurdBomberTurdBomber Member Posts: 19,981 Standard Supporter
    YellowSnow said:

    LebamDawg said:

    I actually don't have a clue what will happen other than total destruction of major cities.

    My new neighborhood because it's full of CA, Portland and Seattle ex-pats seems to be pretty Biden / Harris yard sign heavy. Cross the river and it starts to feel more MAGA. Still if Trump pulls it off, I don't think my neighbors will try to burn things down.
    Gated community with no border fence, though. Amiright?

    Perfect metaphor for many of your neighbors.
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  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 35,943 Founders Club
    RaceBannon said:

    RoadDawg55 said:

    It's hard to know. It seems like Biden rolls to victory, but the silent majority is still out there. People with money vote republican and they also are less likely to engage in loud Twitter wars.

    People I know irl who don't live on social media think Trump wins

    They want him to so its meaningless but still.

    People who want him who hang on Twitter and the like think he loses

    The debate thread was like a Huskie game thread
    I'll admit I start to be a pole watcher towards the finish line. The challenge Trump faces at this point - unless things tighten somewhat over the next few weeks - is that the polls have to be in error by a wider margin than they were in 2016. Biden's average lead in WI is + 5.5. +5.2 in MI. And +5.7 in Michigan. He can sweep FL, OH and NC but still has to get one of those Blue Wall states that he last won by c-hairs. The math is daunting.
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  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 35,943 Founders Club
    TurdBomber said:

    YellowSnow said:

    LebamDawg said:

    I actually don't have a clue what will happen other than total destruction of major cities.

    My new neighborhood because it's full of CA, Portland and Seattle ex-pats seems to be pretty Biden / Harris yard sign heavy. Cross the river and it starts to feel more MAGA. Still if Trump pulls it off, I don't think my neighbors will try to burn things down.
    Gated community with no border fence, though. Amiright?

    Perfect metaphor for many of your neighbors.
    I cannot confirm if there are gates or not. Narrows things down too much for @NSA_Dawg
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  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 23,598
    RaceBannon said:

    RoadDawg55 said:

    It's hard to know. It seems like Biden rolls to victory, but the silent majority is still out there. People with money vote republican and they also are less likely to engage in loud Twitter wars.

    People I know irl who don't live on social media think Trump wins

    They want him to so its meaningless but still.

    People who want him who hang on Twitter and the like think he loses

    The debate thread was like a Huskie game thread
    So, basically like three people maybe?
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