Trump Confidence to Win Pole - 5 weeks out edition
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Conventional wisdom is people are more excited to vote for someone than they are motivated to vote against someone. After Obamacare I really wanted him to lose but ended up not voting because I was in Olympia and registered in Seattle and really didn't give a shit about Romneyalumni94 said:
I don't think there is a lot of pro Biden people, hence no Biden signs. But if they made a "I have Trump" sign, there would be more of those. Now the question is, will those people vote?RaceBannon said:Anecdotally I see zero Biden signs or bumper stickers and I've been everywhere man. Traveling around SO Cal the last couple of days scraping up some work that we can lose when Biden shuts down the country again.
Now, maybe Biden voters are scared to show support but Hillary was massively represented in 16
See Trump flags and big Trump signs along the freeway. Biden wins California. Trump win America
https://foxnews.com/media/abc-martha-raddatz-enthusiasm-joe-biden
Interesting article on the enthusiasm gap from an ABC writer who left her basement to find out
The Vid isn't much of an issue.
I you get good service you might say so on yelp or you might think that's what I paid for. If you get bad service you are 10 times more likely to let people know
#Science -
I always assumed in the kingdom of flooring that only what Racebannon thinks is of any relevance. Since when did you start collecting opinions from the little people?RaceBannon said:
I know a lot of people in my bidness workcreepycoug said:
So, basically like three people maybe?RaceBannon said:
People I know irl who don't live on social media think Trump winsRoadDawg55 said:It's hard to know. It seems like Biden rolls to victory, but the silent majority is still out there. People with money vote republican and they also are less likely to engage in loud Twitter wars.
They want him to so its meaningless but still.
People who want him who hang on Twitter and the like think he loses
The debate thread was like a Huskie game thread -
Either way ....RaceBannon said:
One of two thingsDoogles said:After last night I feel more like I did when the coronavirus was in full swing and before the George Floyd fiasco that brought him back to life.
The only thing people are saying about the debate is that Trump refused to condemn white supremacy. We can comb through the BS and understand that's not what actually happened, but it doesn't matter.
Trump is always going to get Oregon on the road with them coming off a bye week. He can't miss chip shots in the first quarter when every point counts.
He needed to breathe and let Biden hang himself.
I honestly don't know what the fuck is going to happen.
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i have absolute faith in the dems fucking up right at the end.
Because they prefer not to win. Trump is the greatest thing for establishment dems in history. -
Race has been around long enough to know most of the dead voters in America.creepycoug said:
So, basically like three people maybe?RaceBannon said:
People I know irl who don't live on social media think Trump winsRoadDawg55 said:It's hard to know. It seems like Biden rolls to victory, but the silent majority is still out there. People with money vote republican and they also are less likely to engage in loud Twitter wars.
They want him to so its meaningless but still.
People who want him who hang on Twitter and the like think he loses
The debate thread was like a Huskie game thread -
Either way this is gonna be interesting. It's shaping up to be an epic battle between @RaceBannon 's - The Oracle of Temecula - gut and Nate Silver's #science.
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2020 is the year of corrupt science
I win -
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Science is science. The Corona Bros just don’t follow it.RaceBannon said:2020 is the year of corrupt science
I win -
And you are assuming media outlets doYellowSnow said:
Science is science. The Corona Bros just don’t follow it.RaceBannon said:2020 is the year of corrupt science
I win
Silver's science appeared to be lacking in 2016 while I had Trump from the jump -
The media outlets (other than Fox) are all in for Biden. Same as it ever was.RaceBannon said:
And you are assuming media outlets doYellowSnow said:
Science is science. The Corona Bros just don’t follow it.RaceBannon said:2020 is the year of corrupt science
I win
Silver's science appeared to be lacking in 2016 while I had Trump from the jump
The point where I disagree with many of you guysm was how off the poles were in 2016. Trump was within the margin of error (+/- 2%) in a lot of polls for the blue wall states in that year. It shouldn't have been as big of shock to the pundits as it was.
I think the polls can definitely get it wrong from time to time. But the way its looking at the moment, they have to be off by a lot more than 2016 for Trump to win. -
As we have discussed the last poll is always close enough to save face. If you look at that Silver link he was WAY off while I was right. As usualYellowSnow said:
The media outlets (other than Fox) are all in for Biden. Same as it ever was.RaceBannon said:
And you are assuming media outlets doYellowSnow said:
Science is science. The Corona Bros just don’t follow it.RaceBannon said:2020 is the year of corrupt science
I win
Silver's science appeared to be lacking in 2016 while I had Trump from the jump
The point where I disagree with many of you guysm was how off the poles were in 2016. Trump was within the margin of error (+/- 2%) in a lot of polls for the blue wall states in that year. It shouldn't have been as big of shock to the pundits as it was.
I think the polls can definitely get it wrong from time to time. But the way its looking at the moment, they have to be off by a lot more than 2016 for Trump to win.
Win percentage is the main weapon of choice. 90% Hills the day of
Does anyone seriously think Biden is up by 13 points nationwide? -
If you put a gun to my head, I think Trump wins.
Two variables at play: How big is the silent majority and to what lengths will the left stuff the ballots?
It's pretty clear the media will run cover for any trash canned Trump ballets and not bat an eye when more dead people show up to vote D. They are all in on this front.
How many people are sitting on their hands, itching to get rid of this mad Max antifa bullshit in the streets? How many middle class average Joe's just doing the best they can are tired of being called racist for expecting law and order and accountability? -
The Governor of Texas has restricted drop off boxes for mail in ballots meaning more people will have to mail in the mail in ballot.
The left, who a week ago was defending the Post Office to the death is calling this voter suppression and an outrage
Abbott (R) Texas says the drop off boxes are not secure. Trump (R) America says the PO is not secure. Biden (D) The Basement said huh?
I'm with Joe -
Trump wins bigger than he did in 2016
Cook it -
Let's clean a few things up, shall we:RaceBannon said:
As we have discussed the last poll is always close enough to save face. If you look at that Silver link he was WAY off while I was right. As usualYellowSnow said:
The media outlets (other than Fox) are all in for Biden. Same as it ever was.RaceBannon said:
And you are assuming media outlets doYellowSnow said:
Science is science. The Corona Bros just don’t follow it.RaceBannon said:2020 is the year of corrupt science
I win
Silver's science appeared to be lacking in 2016 while I had Trump from the jump
The point where I disagree with many of you guysm was how off the poles were in 2016. Trump was within the margin of error (+/- 2%) in a lot of polls for the blue wall states in that year. It shouldn't have been as big of shock to the pundits as it was.
I think the polls can definitely get it wrong from time to time. But the way its looking at the moment, they have to be off by a lot more than 2016 for Trump to win.
Win percentage is the main weapon of choice. 90% Hills the day of
Does anyone seriously think Biden is up by 13 points nationwide?
1- Biden isn't ahead by 13 pts nationally. The RCP national average has been around 7 for a while. But NOC about the national number. The RCP average for in places like OH, FL and NC has been a dead heat ( i.e., Biden up by 1- 3 pts). I think it's probable he holds serve in these states. Biden's polling lead in MI, WI and PA is larger (around 5% in each state). If he can't close the gap to like 2 or 3 points down I don't see it happening.
2- Silver didn't flex Trump to 28% last minute in 2016 to not look bad. It varied from time to time, but there were points along the way where they had Trump in a dead heat. For example 50.1% chance to win on July 30, 2016 and 45.2% on Sept. 26.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
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MSN home page today Biden opens 13 point lead after debates
Fact
Close poll favors Trump who is underrepresented
Fact
Silver blew the 16 election. I didn't
Fact
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Let me help you Silver dick sucking idiots out
Did Trump lose the support that won him the swing states in 2016? No
Do those voters know that things were as good as theyve ever been economically in this country before the covid scam? Yes
Do those voters think the Dems shutting down everything over a bad flu is a good idea? No
Are many of these voters pissed their livelihood has been shit on by a bad flu? Yes
Do those voters want to defund the police? No
Do those voters agree with riots burning businesses? No
Is anyone on the Left excited by a Biden/Harris ticket? No
Pretty simple really. Trump has not lost his base, Biden has no enthusiasm. It's game over before it even started
But but but the national polls and media!! You chumps learned nothing 4 years ago -
He won the blue wall rust belt states by a c-hair against the most hated Dem nominee in a long time. Biden sucks and is senile old geezer, but isn't hated to the degree Hillary was/is. You don't think things could change by a few hundred thousand votes?PostGameOrangeSlices said:Let me help you Silver dick sucking idiots out
Did Trump lose the support that won him the swing states in 2016? No
Do those voters know that things were as good as theyve ever been economically in this country before the covid scam? Yes
Do those voters think the Dems shutting down everything over a bad flu is a good idea? No
Are many of these voters pissed their livelihood has been shit on by a bad flu? Yes
Do those voters want to defund the police? No
Do those voters agree with riots burning businesses? No
Is anyone on the Left excited by a Biden/Harris ticket? No
Pretty simple really. Trump has not lost his base, Biden has no enthusiasm. It's game over before it even started
But but but the national polls and media!! You chumps learned nothing 4 years ago -
Nope. The same people that hate Hillary hate Biden. HthYellowSnow said:
He won the blue wall rust belt states by a c-hair against the most hated Dem nominee in a long time. Biden sucks and is senile old geezer, but isn't hated to the degree Hillary was/is. You don't think things could change by a few hundred thousand votes?PostGameOrangeSlices said:Let me help you Silver dick sucking idiots out
Did Trump lose the support that won him the swing states in 2016? No
Do those voters know that things were as good as theyve ever been economically in this country before the covid scam? Yes
Do those voters think the Dems shutting down everything over a bad flu is a good idea? No
Are many of these voters pissed their livelihood has been shit on by a bad flu? Yes
Do those voters want to defund the police? No
Do those voters agree with riots burning businesses? No
Is anyone on the Left excited by a Biden/Harris ticket? No
Pretty simple really. Trump has not lost his base, Biden has no enthusiasm. It's game over before it even started
But but but the national polls and media!! You chumps learned nothing 4 years ago -
All I know is that while doogs have been making excuses for the pollsters I've been fucking the Prom queen
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LIPO. 1 championship does not a dynasty make.RaceBannon said:All I know is that while doogs have been making excuses for the pollsters I've been fucking the Prom queen
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Coogs gonna coogYellowSnow said:
LIPO. 1 championship does not a dynasty make.RaceBannon said:All I know is that while doogs have been making excuses for the pollsters I've been fucking the Prom queen
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Hillary was 100 times the candidate Joe is. In a traditional sense she was 100 times the candidate Trump is.
So running a traditional candidate 100 times worse than Hillary will work this time
#science -
LulzRaceBannon said:
Coogs gonna coogYellowSnow said:
LIPO. 1 championship does not a dynasty make.RaceBannon said:All I know is that while doogs have been making excuses for the pollsters I've been fucking the Prom queen
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all I have to say is there are a lot of scared folks out there hiding behind masks now. If those folks are thinking the Vid is Trump's fault even in the slightest or think that the masking up of America is correct Trump is out.
I live in the frigging country and right next to me 3 people were out working in their yard today wearing fucking masks. Lots of Trump and Culp signs out here but the mask wearing is getting weirder every day -
I agree with this, but I also think the cheating side got lazy in 2016 because everyone thought she was going to win. This time they mailed out tens of millions of unsolicited ballots to try and not repeat that mistake.RaceBannon said:Hillary was 100 times the candidate Joe is. In a traditional sense she was 100 times the candidate Trump is.
So running a traditional candidate 100 times worse than Hillary will work this time
#science
