My oldest started a new position at a Big software co. in Feb. He manages a large highly visible project with teams of engineers. Hasn’t been to the office once.
He’s recently begun shopping for waterfront homes in more remote areas reflecting what he calls the new norm.
I apologize I don’t have the KOMO4 link at the ready, but I read the Facebooks and Microsofts of the world are starting to be open to letting their employees LEAVE! mega-expensive Silicon Valley and Seattle to work/live wherever they want. It makes total sense. (Though I’m curious if they’ll try to fuck them over salary wise by saying “oh, you don’t have a high cost of living anymore.”)
They absolutely will
If companies were smart they'd completely embrace this as a means of driving down labor costs as not only can they re-index compensation for people that live elsewhere, but as the costs in major cities drop, it will result in a lower indexing there as well.
Teq right, as labor demands lower prices salaries will reflect that. Actually a good thing long term for the US competitively but probably not for big US cities.
The Renaissance of US small towns will accelerate from having a microbrewery and coffee roaster to having tech workers and distance workers etc.
We are going to see urban decay and flight the same as before but at an accelerated pace. Sure doesn't seem like we learned anything politically from history as dem controlled cities are enacting the same self defeating policies.
This *might be the cure for small and medium sized cities in the rust belt if they position themselves correctly.
your last sentence is so intriguing
@UW_Doog_Bot always has the good takes. Easily one of our? best poasters easily and squarely in my top 5 of who I take most seriously around here.
At first, I disliked this working from home chit because I like the energy of the city. But I've come to see the light. I'm flying back east with the kiddos to get them settled in to their leased houses for the school year (the creep household is doing its part to keep the economy moving forward). I'll be in Rhode Island with one helping her get settled into her first apartment, an effort for which I would have typically allotted a week, tops, and then raced home to work moar.
But it occured to me: WGAF how long I'm back there? It doesn't fucking matter a bit. So I haven't bought my return flight because I'll hang out there with her as long as I want to. So, @RaceBannon 's impassioned speech from the mount notwithstanding, I've flipped and now absolutely love the freedom of being unteathered from the office. I hope it never comes back.
My oldest started a new position at a Big software co. in Feb. He manages a large highly visible project with teams of engineers. Hasn’t been to the office once.
He’s recently begun shopping for waterfront homes in more remote areas reflecting what he calls the new norm.
I’m hearing more businesses are allowing employees to keep bottles in their office desk drawers. “It’s no big deal,” one with knowledge said “everybody does it.”
And oldie but goodie. I so remember that one. JFC Kim.
My oldest started a new position at a Big software co. in Feb. He manages a large highly visible project with teams of engineers. Hasn’t been to the office once.
He’s recently begun shopping for waterfront homes in more remote areas reflecting what he calls the new norm.
This could be a boon for places like Montana and Idaho. A lot of people, yours truly included, love it there (assuming you can flee for the winter), but even with Boise, there isn't enough commerce in that region. You move to Montana and whatever gig you had going folds for whatever reason then you are fucked unless you want to open the 10,000th fly fishing store. We? have manufacturing facilities over there and some regional HQ shit. All of the people in the office jobs have always angled for a spot in Seattle even though they'd be upside down housing-wise. It was because of the economic risk of losing their job with us and being incapable of replacing it.
That won't matter in a world where people are all over the place.
My oldest started a new position at a Big software co. in Feb. He manages a large highly visible project with teams of engineers. Hasn’t been to the office once.
He’s recently begun shopping for waterfront homes in more remote areas reflecting what he calls the new norm.
This could be a boon for places like Montana and Idaho. A lot of people, yours truly included, love it there (assuming you can flee for the winter), but even with Boise, there isn't enough commerce in that region. You move to Montana and whatever gig you had going folds for whatever reason then you are fucked unless you want to open the 10,000th fly fishing store. We? have manufacturing facilities over there and some regional HQ shit. All of the people in the office jobs have always angled for a spot in Seattle even though they'd be upside down housing-wise. It was because of the economic risk of losing their job with us and being incapable of replacing it.
That won't matter in a world where people are all over the place.
Once upon a time, Los Angeles was seen as paradise on earth. Today's boon can be tomorrow's plague.
I think this whole take-it-to-the-Tug circle jerk ignores that most of these jobs don't need to happen remotely OR in person. The jobs will eventually go away full-stop. I'm telling my kids to skip college and become plumbers. Algorithms and robots aren't going to be fixing Jack Buttcrack's shoddy work from the 80s anytime soon.
I think this whole take-it-to-the-Tug circle jerk ignores that most of these jobs don't need to happen remotely OR in person. The jobs will eventually go away full-stop. I'm telling my kids to skip college and become plumbers. Algorithms and robots aren't going to be fixing Jack Buttcrack's shoddy work from the 80s anytime soon.
Eh, I'd agree that 10% or so of administrative jobs are probably gone, just gone since you can't fake working from home the way you can fake working in an office. Sorry Tracy in HR.
As for the constant refrains of "automation will put everyone out of work" the same thing was said about the steam engine, large scale machine farm equipment, and PC's. It just frees people from monotonous work and moves labor up the capital chain.
You no longer will be able to get a degree in astronomy and then get a job in payroll sure, and there will probably be a hollowing out of tech, but that will probably be from sectors that were already outsourced to places like India anyway.
The exponential growth other sectors will receive though will be more than off setting. A small business will just buy a program subscription for $50 a year to maximize their accounting instead of hiring an accountant. A small manufacturer will maximize it's supply chain with 1 person part time instead of needing a department. A department like regulatory compliance in a large business will be outsourced to an AI platform. THESE ARE GOOD THINGS.
Anyone beating the automation drum and saying "they'll take are jerbssss" is missing some key concepts in economics.
ATBS getting a job in a trade and becoming highly skilled will pay well. That's never not been the case.
I think this whole take-it-to-the-Tug circle jerk ignores that most of these jobs don't need to happen remotely OR in person. The jobs will eventually go away full-stop. I'm telling my kids to skip college and become plumbers. Algorithms and robots aren't going to be fixing Jack Buttcrack's shoddy work from the 80s anytime soon.
The world has been wishing away lawyers since the beginning of tim.
And, here the Creep stands. I'm not worried, particularly given my tim horizon.
As for the kids, skipping college wasn't an option unless they wanted to go it alone. After college, they can do whatever in the fuck they want, including plumbing.
This I will say about a lot of the trades: be careful which one your choose, and try to become the boss asap, because your body will give out on you. The Russian (ok, Race, Ukranian) who has done all my tile installation hung up his knee pads in his 30s because of a bad back.
My oldest started a new position at a Big software co. in Feb. He manages a large highly visible project with teams of engineers. Hasn’t been to the office once.
He’s recently begun shopping for waterfront homes in more remote areas reflecting what he calls the new norm.
This could be a boon for places like Montana and Idaho. A lot of people, yours truly included, love it there (assuming you can flee for the winter), but even with Boise, there isn't enough commerce in that region. You move to Montana and whatever gig you had going folds for whatever reason then you are fucked unless you want to open the 10,000th fly fishing store. We? have manufacturing facilities over there and some regional HQ shit. All of the people in the office jobs have always angled for a spot in Seattle even though they'd be upside down housing-wise. It was because of the economic risk of losing their job with us and being incapable of replacing it.
That won't matter in a world where people are all over the place.
We only moved to a Zoom town because in Mrs Snow’s bidness there seem to be a lot of remote type roles. The only caveat is close by regional airport. We still took some risk, sure, but we’ve got a lot of meat on our bones and a smaller mortgage payment than Seattle.
My oldest started a new position at a Big software co. in Feb. He manages a large highly visible project with teams of engineers. Hasn’t been to the office once.
He’s recently begun shopping for waterfront homes in more remote areas reflecting what he calls the new norm.
This could be a boon for places like Montana and Idaho. A lot of people, yours truly included, love it there (assuming you can flee for the winter), but even with Boise, there isn't enough commerce in that region. You move to Montana and whatever gig you had going folds for whatever reason then you are fucked unless you want to open the 10,000th fly fishing store. We? have manufacturing facilities over there and some regional HQ shit. All of the people in the office jobs have always angled for a spot in Seattle even though they'd be upside down housing-wise. It was because of the economic risk of losing their job with us and being incapable of replacing it.
That won't matter in a world where people are all over the place.
We only moved to a Zoom town because in Mrs Snow’s bidness there seem to be a lot of remote type roles. The only caveat is close by regional airport. We still took some risk, sure, but we’ve got a lot of meat on our bones and a smaller mortgage payment than Seattle.
How'd the move go? How's it goign overall? We'll have to do that lunch in Bend. I've never been and want to check it out.
My oldest started a new position at a Big software co. in Feb. He manages a large highly visible project with teams of engineers. Hasn’t been to the office once.
He’s recently begun shopping for waterfront homes in more remote areas reflecting what he calls the new norm.
This could be a boon for places like Montana and Idaho. A lot of people, yours truly included, love it there (assuming you can flee for the winter), but even with Boise, there isn't enough commerce in that region. You move to Montana and whatever gig you had going folds for whatever reason then you are fucked unless you want to open the 10,000th fly fishing store. We? have manufacturing facilities over there and some regional HQ shit. All of the people in the office jobs have always angled for a spot in Seattle even though they'd be upside down housing-wise. It was because of the economic risk of losing their job with us and being incapable of replacing it.
That won't matter in a world where people are all over the place.
We only moved to a Zoom town because in Mrs Snow’s bidness there seem to be a lot of remote type roles. The only caveat is close by regional airport. We still took some risk, sure, but we’ve got a lot of meat on our bones and a smaller mortgage payment than Seattle.
How'd the move go? How's it goign overall? We'll have to do that lunch in Bend. I've never been and want to check it out.
As for the constant refrains of "automation will put everyone out of work" the same thing was said about the steam engine, large scale machine farm equipment, and PC's. It just frees people from monotonous work and moves labor up the capital chain.
You no longer will be able to get a degree in astronomy and then get a job in payroll sure, and there will probably be a hollowing out of tech, but that will probably be from sectors that were already outsourced to places like India anyway.
The exponential growth other sectors will receive though will be more than off setting.
I like to think every technological advancement will affect society in the exact same way as the last whilst simultaneously believing that permanent exponential growth doesn't run afoul of the laws of thermodynamics. It's what I like to do.
Exponential growth is a motherfucker. Paying the piper isn't going to be fun for our kids or grandkids or whoever gets left holding the bag.
Zoom this. I think its great that the 1% can now work from their oceanfront homes and not have to commute from their fabulously rich in town neighborhood. Might want to stock up on guns and ammo in case unwelcome guests show up
The thousands of small businesses and the millions of people already out may not find comfort in this
Sorry for being the man of the people but I am. We have the largest crisis in our history waiting for us when we? wake the fuck up from this dream
Even before the ANTIFA shit, downtown biz was freaking out hard over COVID because of their reliance on people visiting the shops at lunch while working, etc. People who still commute are no longer making stops between home and the office. Remote work exacerbates that problem.
Personally, I don't really care. I'd rather have a handful of shops in my town than have to go to Seattle or other large areas. Fuck people. I'm all-in on the rebirth of villages.
As for the constant refrains of "automation will put everyone out of work" the same thing was said about the steam engine, large scale machine farm equipment, and PC's. It just frees people from monotonous work and moves labor up the capital chain.
You no longer will be able to get a degree in astronomy and then get a job in payroll sure, and there will probably be a hollowing out of tech, but that will probably be from sectors that were already outsourced to places like India anyway.
The exponential growth other sectors will receive though will be more than off setting.
I like to think every technological advancement will affect society in the exact same way as the last whilst simultaneously believing that permanent exponential growth doesn't run afoul of the laws of thermodynamics. It's what I like to do.
Exponential growth is a motherfucker. Paying the piper isn't going to be fun for our kids or grandkids or whoever gets left holding the bag.
I don't think that's what he said.
In any event, implied in what he did say is that people will adapt. It's not going to be an overnight thing. People thought app rides would fuck all the taxi drivers. And here we are.
It usually doesn't happen overnight, and in a free market economy, it technically happens because we want it to happen. The delivery of better and better goods and services more cheaply and efficiently is overwhelmingly a good thing. Displaced people figure out something else, and generations that follow go into other lines of work.
After all, what did all the blacksmiths do when that vocation dried up?
You can't stop or wish away progress. It is the best argument, which Mark Cuban recently made, for the benefits of a broadly liberal education. Don't go learn one thing. Go learn to be a better learner and acquire some critical thinking skills while you're at it. Some quant skills wouldn't hurt either. But make yourself, intellectually, an athlete; not a specialist.
My kid is pursuing graduate studies in math and statistics. I can almost guarantee you that she won't be a math professor, and eventually might not even use those quant. skills herself.
As for the constant refrains of "automation will put everyone out of work" the same thing was said about the steam engine, large scale machine farm equipment, and PC's. It just frees people from monotonous work and moves labor up the capital chain.
You no longer will be able to get a degree in astronomy and then get a job in payroll sure, and there will probably be a hollowing out of tech, but that will probably be from sectors that were already outsourced to places like India anyway.
The exponential growth other sectors will receive though will be more than off setting.
I like to think every technological advancement will affect society in the exact same way as the last whilst simultaneously believing that permanent exponential growth doesn't run afoul of the laws of thermodynamics. It's what I like to do.
Exponential growth is a motherfucker. Paying the piper isn't going to be fun for our kids or grandkids or whoever gets left holding the bag.
I don't think that's what he said.
In any event, implied in what he did say is that people will adapt. It's not going to be an overnight thing. People thought app rides would fuck all the taxi drivers. And here we are.
It usually doesn't happen overnight, and in a free market economy, it technically happens because we want it to happen. The delivery of better and better goods and services more cheaply and efficiently is overwhelmingly a good thing. Displaced people figure out something else, and generations that follow go into other lines of work.
After all, what did all the blacksmiths do when that vocation dried up?
You can't stop or wish away progress. It is the best argument, which Mark Cuban recently made, for the benefits of a broadly liberal education. Don't go learn one thing. Go learn to be a better learner and acquire some critical thinking skills while you're at it. Some quant skills wouldn't hurt either. But make yourself, intellectually, an athlete; not a specialist.
My kid is pursuing graduate studies in math and statistics. I can almost guarantee you that she won't be a math professor, and eventually might not even use those quant. skills herself.
Co-sign.
Many of the jobs of tomorrow (that sounds lame, but I’ll go with it) haven’t been invented yet. Getting as broad of an education as possible is the best way to prepare the workforce.
This is not to say I disagree with you @1to392831weretaken, we need a lot more people in trades. I wish our culture stopped treating them as “lesser” vocations.
Getting back to the OP, the Zoom Towns will ultimately be a good thing IMO because they’ll bring in talent and money into towns that were left out of the rise of big tech. That will ultimately allow people who can’t telecommute more opportunities. I know a savvy restaurant owner in Seattle that is making lemonade out of COVID lemons and moving his place to Idaho because that’s where a lot of his old customers are heading.
I think this whole take-it-to-the-Tug circle jerk ignores that most of these jobs don't need to happen remotely OR in person. The jobs will eventually go away full-stop. I'm telling my kids to skip college and become plumbers. Algorithms and robots aren't going to be fixing Jack Buttcrack's shoddy work from the 80s anytime soon.
The world has been wishing away lawyers since the beginning of tim.
And, here the Creep stands. I'm not worried, particularly given my tim horizon.
As for the kids, skipping college wasn't an option unless they wanted to go it alone. After college, they can do whatever in the fuck they want, including plumbing.
This I will say about a lot of the trades: be careful which one your choose, and try to become the boss asap, because your body will give out on you. The Russian (ok, Race, Ukranian) who has done all my tile installation hung up his knee pads in his 30s because of a bad back.
I got a job as a beginning carpet layer simply because that was who gave me the job in the strip mall of small shops on Mottman road. Yes actually working is harder than shit on your body. Took two years for me to get sent to Seattle to run the shop up there and the rest is history. Less time than a degree and got paid while learning. It is the best way to learn an business inside out and my ability to understand the field and the office has always been my edge
Guys start out pounding drywall and end up with their own construction company. America baby
I think this whole take-it-to-the-Tug circle jerk ignores that most of these jobs don't need to happen remotely OR in person. The jobs will eventually go away full-stop. I'm telling my kids to skip college and become plumbers. Algorithms and robots aren't going to be fixing Jack Buttcrack's shoddy work from the 80s anytime soon.
The world has been wishing away lawyers since the beginning of tim.
And, here the Creep stands. I'm not worried, particularly given my tim horizon.
As for the kids, skipping college wasn't an option unless they wanted to go it alone. After college, they can do whatever in the fuck they want, including plumbing.
This I will say about a lot of the trades: be careful which one your choose, and try to become the boss asap, because your body will give out on you. The Russian (ok, Race, Ukranian) who has done all my tile installation hung up his knee pads in his 30s because of a bad back.
I got a job as a beginning carpet layer simply because that was who gave me the job in the strip mall of small shops on Mottman road. Yes actually working is harder than shit on your body. Took two years for me to get sent to Seattle to run the shop up there and the rest is history. Less time than a degree and got paid while learning. It is the best way to learn an business inside out and my ability to understand the field and the office has always been my edge
Guys start out pounding drywall and end up with their own construction company. America baby
Comments
At first, I disliked this working from home chit because I like the energy of the city. But I've come to see the light. I'm flying back east with the kiddos to get them settled in to their leased houses for the school year (the creep household is doing its part to keep the economy moving forward). I'll be in Rhode Island with one helping her get settled into her first apartment, an effort for which I would have typically allotted a week, tops, and then raced home to work moar.
But it occured to me: WGAF how long I'm back there? It doesn't fucking matter a bit. So I haven't bought my return flight because I'll hang out there with her as long as I want to. So, @RaceBannon 's impassioned speech from the mount notwithstanding, I've flipped and now absolutely love the freedom of being unteathered from the office. I hope it never comes back.
That won't matter in a world where people are all over the place.
Actually, I replaced my own garbage disposal (once), so I'm good if need be.
As for the constant refrains of "automation will put everyone out of work" the same thing was said about the steam engine, large scale machine farm equipment, and PC's. It just frees people from monotonous work and moves labor up the capital chain.
You no longer will be able to get a degree in astronomy and then get a job in payroll sure, and there will probably be a hollowing out of tech, but that will probably be from sectors that were already outsourced to places like India anyway.
The exponential growth other sectors will receive though will be more than off setting. A small business will just buy a program subscription for $50 a year to maximize their accounting instead of hiring an accountant. A small manufacturer will maximize it's supply chain with 1 person part time instead of needing a department. A department like regulatory compliance in a large business will be outsourced to an AI platform. THESE ARE GOOD THINGS.
Anyone beating the automation drum and saying "they'll take are jerbssss" is missing some key concepts in economics.
ATBS getting a job in a trade and becoming highly skilled will pay well. That's never not been the case.
And, here the Creep stands. I'm not worried, particularly given my tim horizon.
As for the kids, skipping college wasn't an option unless they wanted to go it alone. After college, they can do whatever in the fuck they want, including plumbing.
This I will say about a lot of the trades: be careful which one your choose, and try to become the boss asap, because your body will give out on you. The Russian (ok, Race, Ukranian) who has done all my tile installation hung up his knee pads in his 30s because of a bad back.
Exponential growth is a motherfucker. Paying the piper isn't going to be fun for our kids or grandkids or whoever gets left holding the bag.
Personally, I don't really care. I'd rather have a handful of shops in my town than have to go to Seattle or other large areas. Fuck people. I'm all-in on the rebirth of villages.
In any event, implied in what he did say is that people will adapt. It's not going to be an overnight thing. People thought app rides would fuck all the taxi drivers. And here we are.
It usually doesn't happen overnight, and in a free market economy, it technically happens because we want it to happen. The delivery of better and better goods and services more cheaply and efficiently is overwhelmingly a good thing. Displaced people figure out something else, and generations that follow go into other lines of work.
After all, what did all the blacksmiths do when that vocation dried up?
You can't stop or wish away progress. It is the best argument, which Mark Cuban recently made, for the benefits of a broadly liberal education. Don't go learn one thing. Go learn to be a better learner and acquire some critical thinking skills while you're at it. Some quant skills wouldn't hurt either. But make yourself, intellectually, an athlete; not a specialist.
My kid is pursuing graduate studies in math and statistics. I can almost guarantee you that she won't be a math professor, and eventually might not even use those quant. skills herself.
Many of the jobs of tomorrow (that sounds lame, but I’ll go with it) haven’t been invented yet. Getting as broad of an education as possible is the best way to prepare the workforce.
This is not to say I disagree with you @1to392831weretaken, we need a lot more people in trades. I wish our culture stopped treating them as “lesser” vocations.
Getting back to the OP, the Zoom Towns will ultimately be a good thing IMO because they’ll bring in talent and money into towns that were left out of the rise of big tech. That will ultimately allow people who can’t telecommute more opportunities. I know a savvy restaurant owner in Seattle that is making lemonade out of COVID lemons and moving his place to Idaho because that’s where a lot of his old customers are heading.
Guys start out pounding drywall and end up with their own construction company. America baby