Recessions are good
Comments
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https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7215388/UW_Doog_Bot said:
I actually think there's a huge loss of demand for the Yuan and that China is actually probably trying to prop it up not the other way around. Just my guess though. I think the 6.5(or 6.2)% GDP growth figures are complete horseshit and mirror targets way to well despite huge losses in demand across multiple sectors. It's the same playbook as the great leap forward when iron production was falsified to make leadership happy. There's no one place to point to but there's systematic bias and error in measurement down to a grassroots level. When you have over a billion people measuring something with bias you can end up with some wildly inaccurate measurements.PurpleThrobber said:
@UW_Doog_Bot - what's your take on the Chinese devaluing their currency today?UW_Doog_Bot said:"That’s bad enough, but tolerable, says Morgan Stanley, which makes the case that if those 10% tariffs are kept for longer than four or five months, global growth will remain weak in the range of 2.8% to 3%, despite interest-rate cuts from central banks.
Global growth was 3.6% in 2018 and projected to grow 3.2% in 2019, according to the July estimates from the International Monetary Fund.
Morgan Stanley defines a global recession as one where global growth is below 2.5%."
I'll take 2.5% GDP growth in the US while China slides into recession if that's what you are currently offering.
Head fake or justified?
The Throbber doesn't trust those sneaky bastards.
I'm educated on a lot of the subject and watch a lot of these things closely but this is all still my best guess. Please don't make any currency bets on my takes. Dismal science is dismal to begin with and I'm not half as tuned in as I once was to international supply chains.
Actually curious what international capital markets are doing @CirrhosisDawg
I still don't trust those sneaky bastards as far as I can throw them.
But to your point - the Chinese aren't so good at measuring and accounting for things. Between blatant dishonesty and variance over a LARGE base, I just flat don't believe their numbers most of the time.
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Sorry, this is more about the theft of about a trillion in IP a year which is one of the most important sectors of the US economy. It roughly translates to about 5% in immediate measurable GDP loss. How different do you think the economy would look with an added 5% growth per year in the last decade?HustlinOwl said:Can't wait for all the low paying jobs making plastic crap come back to the US.
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Well, even the Chinese don't trust the Chinese. Top CCP brass has admitted they don't use official numbers for policy planning because of "variance". Much like the old USSR lying is the default standard.PurpleThrobber said:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7215388/UW_Doog_Bot said:
I actually think there's a huge loss of demand for the Yuan and that China is actually probably trying to prop it up not the other way around. Just my guess though. I think the 6.5(or 6.2)% GDP growth figures are complete horseshit and mirror targets way to well despite huge losses in demand across multiple sectors. It's the same playbook as the great leap forward when iron production was falsified to make leadership happy. There's no one place to point to but there's systematic bias and error in measurement down to a grassroots level. When you have over a billion people measuring something with bias you can end up with some wildly inaccurate measurements.PurpleThrobber said:
@UW_Doog_Bot - what's your take on the Chinese devaluing their currency today?UW_Doog_Bot said:"That’s bad enough, but tolerable, says Morgan Stanley, which makes the case that if those 10% tariffs are kept for longer than four or five months, global growth will remain weak in the range of 2.8% to 3%, despite interest-rate cuts from central banks.
Global growth was 3.6% in 2018 and projected to grow 3.2% in 2019, according to the July estimates from the International Monetary Fund.
Morgan Stanley defines a global recession as one where global growth is below 2.5%."
I'll take 2.5% GDP growth in the US while China slides into recession if that's what you are currently offering.
Head fake or justified?
The Throbber doesn't trust those sneaky bastards.
I'm educated on a lot of the subject and watch a lot of these things closely but this is all still my best guess. Please don't make any currency bets on my takes. Dismal science is dismal to begin with and I'm not half as tuned in as I once was to international supply chains.
Actually curious what international capital markets are doing @CirrhosisDawg
I still don't trust those sneaky bastards as far as I can throw them.
But to your point - the Chinese aren't so good at measuring and accounting for things. Between blatant dishonesty and variance over a LARGE base, I just flat don't believe their numbers most of the time. -
He won't be able to buy cheap chinese hipster products and fake lumberjack clothing. How will he survive a catastrophe of that magnitude?UW_Doog_Bot said:
Sorry, this is more about the theft of about a trillion in IP a year which is one of the most important sectors of the US economy. It roughly translates to about 5% in immediate measurable GDP loss. How different do you think the economy would look with an added 5% growth per year in the last decade?HustlinOwl said:Can't wait for all the low paying jobs making plastic crap come back to the US.
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Tell that to the farmers. It's not more about IP theft.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Sorry, this is more about the theft of about a trillion in IP a year which is one of the most important sectors of the US economy. It roughly translates to about 5% in immediate measurable GDP loss. How different do you think the economy would look with an added 5% growth per year in the last decade?HustlinOwl said:Can't wait for all the low paying jobs making plastic crap come back to the US.
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What would you do about China's IP theft Owl?HustlinOwl said:
Tell that to the farmers. It's not more about IP theft.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Sorry, this is more about the theft of about a trillion in IP a year which is one of the most important sectors of the US economy. It roughly translates to about 5% in immediate measurable GDP loss. How different do you think the economy would look with an added 5% growth per year in the last decade?HustlinOwl said:Can't wait for all the low paying jobs making plastic crap come back to the US.
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Were both of your parents perverts? Or just one?HHusky said:
That time of the month?Bendintheriver said:
We're all going to die HH! Run for the hills! The economy is going to be destroyed! We should just let the Chinese take advantage of us as our weapons are useless against them!!!!!!!!!!!HHusky said:
Real patriots like being laid off. Cuz the Chinese!Sledog said:Hondo Bros. are hoping China invades and they switch sides.
FFS get a backbone there buttercup. -
If you haven't watched The China Hustle, you should. The Chinese give no fucks when it comes to raking money from foreigners.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Well, even the Chinese don't trust the Chinese. Top CCP brass has admitted they don't use official numbers for policy planning because of "variance". Much like the old USSR lying is the default standard.PurpleThrobber said:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7215388/UW_Doog_Bot said:
I actually think there's a huge loss of demand for the Yuan and that China is actually probably trying to prop it up not the other way around. Just my guess though. I think the 6.5(or 6.2)% GDP growth figures are complete horseshit and mirror targets way to well despite huge losses in demand across multiple sectors. It's the same playbook as the great leap forward when iron production was falsified to make leadership happy. There's no one place to point to but there's systematic bias and error in measurement down to a grassroots level. When you have over a billion people measuring something with bias you can end up with some wildly inaccurate measurements.PurpleThrobber said:
@UW_Doog_Bot - what's your take on the Chinese devaluing their currency today?UW_Doog_Bot said:"That’s bad enough, but tolerable, says Morgan Stanley, which makes the case that if those 10% tariffs are kept for longer than four or five months, global growth will remain weak in the range of 2.8% to 3%, despite interest-rate cuts from central banks.
Global growth was 3.6% in 2018 and projected to grow 3.2% in 2019, according to the July estimates from the International Monetary Fund.
Morgan Stanley defines a global recession as one where global growth is below 2.5%."
I'll take 2.5% GDP growth in the US while China slides into recession if that's what you are currently offering.
Head fake or justified?
The Throbber doesn't trust those sneaky bastards.
I'm educated on a lot of the subject and watch a lot of these things closely but this is all still my best guess. Please don't make any currency bets on my takes. Dismal science is dismal to begin with and I'm not half as tuned in as I once was to international supply chains.
Actually curious what international capital markets are doing @CirrhosisDawg
I still don't trust those sneaky bastards as far as I can throw them.
But to your point - the Chinese aren't so good at measuring and accounting for things. Between blatant dishonesty and variance over a LARGE base, I just flat don't believe their numbers most of the time.
They care not about such things as 'independent audits'.
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Lol I've worked overseas and worked with the Chinese. They give no fucks even when it comes to raking money from other Chinese.PurpleThrobber said:
If you haven't watched The China Hustle, you should. The Chinese give no fucks when it comes to raking money from foreigners.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Well, even the Chinese don't trust the Chinese. Top CCP brass has admitted they don't use official numbers for policy planning because of "variance". Much like the old USSR lying is the default standard.PurpleThrobber said:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7215388/UW_Doog_Bot said:
I actually think there's a huge loss of demand for the Yuan and that China is actually probably trying to prop it up not the other way around. Just my guess though. I think the 6.5(or 6.2)% GDP growth figures are complete horseshit and mirror targets way to well despite huge losses in demand across multiple sectors. It's the same playbook as the great leap forward when iron production was falsified to make leadership happy. There's no one place to point to but there's systematic bias and error in measurement down to a grassroots level. When you have over a billion people measuring something with bias you can end up with some wildly inaccurate measurements.PurpleThrobber said:
@UW_Doog_Bot - what's your take on the Chinese devaluing their currency today?UW_Doog_Bot said:"That’s bad enough, but tolerable, says Morgan Stanley, which makes the case that if those 10% tariffs are kept for longer than four or five months, global growth will remain weak in the range of 2.8% to 3%, despite interest-rate cuts from central banks.
Global growth was 3.6% in 2018 and projected to grow 3.2% in 2019, according to the July estimates from the International Monetary Fund.
Morgan Stanley defines a global recession as one where global growth is below 2.5%."
I'll take 2.5% GDP growth in the US while China slides into recession if that's what you are currently offering.
Head fake or justified?
The Throbber doesn't trust those sneaky bastards.
I'm educated on a lot of the subject and watch a lot of these things closely but this is all still my best guess. Please don't make any currency bets on my takes. Dismal science is dismal to begin with and I'm not half as tuned in as I once was to international supply chains.
Actually curious what international capital markets are doing @CirrhosisDawg
I still don't trust those sneaky bastards as far as I can throw them.
But to your point - the Chinese aren't so good at measuring and accounting for things. Between blatant dishonesty and variance over a LARGE base, I just flat don't believe their numbers most of the time.
They care not about such things as 'independent audits'.
At least the Russians have the courtesy to let you know they aren't going to follow the rules. -
PurpleThrobber said:
If you haven't watched The China Hustle, you should. The Chinese give no fucks when it comes to raking money from foreigners.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Well, even the Chinese don't trust the Chinese. Top CCP brass has admitted they don't use official numbers for policy planning because of "variance". Much like the old USSR lying is the default standard.PurpleThrobber said:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7215388/UW_Doog_Bot said:
I actually think there's a huge loss of demand for the Yuan and that China is actually probably trying to prop it up not the other way around. Just my guess though. I think the 6.5(or 6.2)% GDP growth figures are complete horseshit and mirror targets way to well despite huge losses in demand across multiple sectors. It's the same playbook as the great leap forward when iron production was falsified to make leadership happy. There's no one place to point to but there's systematic bias and error in measurement down to a grassroots level. When you have over a billion people measuring something with bias you can end up with some wildly inaccurate measurements.PurpleThrobber said:
@UW_Doog_Bot - what's your take on the Chinese devaluing their currency today?UW_Doog_Bot said:"That’s bad enough, but tolerable, says Morgan Stanley, which makes the case that if those 10% tariffs are kept for longer than four or five months, global growth will remain weak in the range of 2.8% to 3%, despite interest-rate cuts from central banks.
Global growth was 3.6% in 2018 and projected to grow 3.2% in 2019, according to the July estimates from the International Monetary Fund.
Morgan Stanley defines a global recession as one where global growth is below 2.5%."
I'll take 2.5% GDP growth in the US while China slides into recession if that's what you are currently offering.
Head fake or justified?
The Throbber doesn't trust those sneaky bastards.
I'm educated on a lot of the subject and watch a lot of these things closely but this is all still my best guess. Please don't make any currency bets on my takes. Dismal science is dismal to begin with and I'm not half as tuned in as I once was to international supply chains.
Actually curious what international capital markets are doing @CirrhosisDawg
I still don't trust those sneaky bastards as far as I can throw them.
But to your point - the Chinese aren't so good at measuring and accounting for things. Between blatant dishonesty and variance over a LARGE base, I just flat don't believe their numbers most of the time.
They care not about such things as 'independent audits'.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2Hu6fHq7ZM
