Recessions are good
Comments
-
I can’t speak with first-hand knowledge about international capital markets. Domestic markets, especially fixed income, however are hunkering down to preserve capital while the trade war rages — even at all-time historically low yields.UW_Doog_Bot said:
I actually think there's a huge loss of demand for the Yuan and that China is actually probably trying to prop it up not the other way around. Just my guess though. I think the 6.5(or 6.2)% GDP growth figures are complete horseshit and mirror targets way to well despite huge losses in demand across multiple sectors. It's the same playbook as the great leap forward when iron production was falsified to make leadership happy. There's no one place to point to but there's systematic bias and error in measurement down to a grassroots level. When you have over a billion people measuring something with bias you can end up with some wildly inaccurate measurements.PurpleThrobber said:
@UW_Doog_Bot - what's your take on the Chinese devaluing their currency today?UW_Doog_Bot said:"That’s bad enough, but tolerable, says Morgan Stanley, which makes the case that if those 10% tariffs are kept for longer than four or five months, global growth will remain weak in the range of 2.8% to 3%, despite interest-rate cuts from central banks.
Global growth was 3.6% in 2018 and projected to grow 3.2% in 2019, according to the July estimates from the International Monetary Fund.
Morgan Stanley defines a global recession as one where global growth is below 2.5%."
I'll take 2.5% GDP growth in the US while China slides into recession if that's what you are currently offering.
Head fake or justified?
The Throbber doesn't trust those sneaky bastards.
I'm educated on a lot of the subject and watch a lot of these things closely but this is all still my best guess. Please don't make any currency bets on my takes. Dismal science is dismal to begin with and I'm not half as tuned in as I once was to international supply chains.
Actually curious what international capital markets are doing @CirrhosisDawg -
Thanks for the real take. I'm curious/nervous about how much contagion Chinese markets pose to the US but I feel like the US is probably the only major market in the world for money to hide in atm with Europe facing its own woes.CirrhosisDawg said:
I can’t speak with first-hand knowledge about international capital markets. Domestic markets, especially fixed income, however are hunkering down to preserve capital while the trade war rages — even at all-time historically low yields.UW_Doog_Bot said:
I actually think there's a huge loss of demand for the Yuan and that China is actually probably trying to prop it up not the other way around. Just my guess though. I think the 6.5(or 6.2)% GDP growth figures are complete horseshit and mirror targets way to well despite huge losses in demand across multiple sectors. It's the same playbook as the great leap forward when iron production was falsified to make leadership happy. There's no one place to point to but there's systematic bias and error in measurement down to a grassroots level. When you have over a billion people measuring something with bias you can end up with some wildly inaccurate measurements.PurpleThrobber said:
@UW_Doog_Bot - what's your take on the Chinese devaluing their currency today?UW_Doog_Bot said:"That’s bad enough, but tolerable, says Morgan Stanley, which makes the case that if those 10% tariffs are kept for longer than four or five months, global growth will remain weak in the range of 2.8% to 3%, despite interest-rate cuts from central banks.
Global growth was 3.6% in 2018 and projected to grow 3.2% in 2019, according to the July estimates from the International Monetary Fund.
Morgan Stanley defines a global recession as one where global growth is below 2.5%."
I'll take 2.5% GDP growth in the US while China slides into recession if that's what you are currently offering.
Head fake or justified?
The Throbber doesn't trust those sneaky bastards.
I'm educated on a lot of the subject and watch a lot of these things closely but this is all still my best guess. Please don't make any currency bets on my takes. Dismal science is dismal to begin with and I'm not half as tuned in as I once was to international supply chains.
Actually curious what international capital markets are doing @CirrhosisDawg -
Agree. Negative bond yields have now hit Germany. Some US non-rated / below investment grade issuers can sell 30-year bonds at approximately 3%UW_Doog_Bot said:
Thanks for the real take. I'm curious/nervous about how much contagion Chinese markets pose to the US but I feel like the US is probably the only major market in the world for money to hide in atm with Europe facing its own woes.CirrhosisDawg said:
I can’t speak with first-hand knowledge about international capital markets. Domestic markets, especially fixed income, however are hunkering down to preserve capital while the trade war rages — even at all-time historically low yields.UW_Doog_Bot said:
I actually think there's a huge loss of demand for the Yuan and that China is actually probably trying to prop it up not the other way around. Just my guess though. I think the 6.5(or 6.2)% GDP growth figures are complete horseshit and mirror targets way to well despite huge losses in demand across multiple sectors. It's the same playbook as the great leap forward when iron production was falsified to make leadership happy. There's no one place to point to but there's systematic bias and error in measurement down to a grassroots level. When you have over a billion people measuring something with bias you can end up with some wildly inaccurate measurements.PurpleThrobber said:
@UW_Doog_Bot - what's your take on the Chinese devaluing their currency today?UW_Doog_Bot said:"That’s bad enough, but tolerable, says Morgan Stanley, which makes the case that if those 10% tariffs are kept for longer than four or five months, global growth will remain weak in the range of 2.8% to 3%, despite interest-rate cuts from central banks.
Global growth was 3.6% in 2018 and projected to grow 3.2% in 2019, according to the July estimates from the International Monetary Fund.
Morgan Stanley defines a global recession as one where global growth is below 2.5%."
I'll take 2.5% GDP growth in the US while China slides into recession if that's what you are currently offering.
Head fake or justified?
The Throbber doesn't trust those sneaky bastards.
I'm educated on a lot of the subject and watch a lot of these things closely but this is all still my best guess. Please don't make any currency bets on my takes. Dismal science is dismal to begin with and I'm not half as tuned in as I once was to international supply chains.
Actually curious what international capital markets are doing @CirrhosisDawg
Risk/Return dynamics are hard to make sense of with the 10-year at 1.7% -
This is what I've been super curious about with the China "conundrum". The worse their market performs the more money is going to fly out of there as capital flight(legit or corrupt *shrug). Will that offset the slowdown/drag that a China recession will have on the world market or will we see a global recession that gets extremely ugly?CirrhosisDawg said:
Agree. Negative bond yields have now hit Germany. Some US non-rated / below investment grade issuers can sell 30-year bonds at approximately 3%UW_Doog_Bot said:
Thanks for the real take. I'm curious/nervous about how much contagion Chinese markets pose to the US but I feel like the US is probably the only major market in the world for money to hide in atm with Europe facing its own woes.CirrhosisDawg said:
I can’t speak with first-hand knowledge about international capital markets. Domestic markets, especially fixed income, however are hunkering down to preserve capital while the trade war rages — even at all-time historically low yields.UW_Doog_Bot said:
I actually think there's a huge loss of demand for the Yuan and that China is actually probably trying to prop it up not the other way around. Just my guess though. I think the 6.5(or 6.2)% GDP growth figures are complete horseshit and mirror targets way to well despite huge losses in demand across multiple sectors. It's the same playbook as the great leap forward when iron production was falsified to make leadership happy. There's no one place to point to but there's systematic bias and error in measurement down to a grassroots level. When you have over a billion people measuring something with bias you can end up with some wildly inaccurate measurements.PurpleThrobber said:
@UW_Doog_Bot - what's your take on the Chinese devaluing their currency today?UW_Doog_Bot said:"That’s bad enough, but tolerable, says Morgan Stanley, which makes the case that if those 10% tariffs are kept for longer than four or five months, global growth will remain weak in the range of 2.8% to 3%, despite interest-rate cuts from central banks.
Global growth was 3.6% in 2018 and projected to grow 3.2% in 2019, according to the July estimates from the International Monetary Fund.
Morgan Stanley defines a global recession as one where global growth is below 2.5%."
I'll take 2.5% GDP growth in the US while China slides into recession if that's what you are currently offering.
Head fake or justified?
The Throbber doesn't trust those sneaky bastards.
I'm educated on a lot of the subject and watch a lot of these things closely but this is all still my best guess. Please don't make any currency bets on my takes. Dismal science is dismal to begin with and I'm not half as tuned in as I once was to international supply chains.
Actually curious what international capital markets are doing @CirrhosisDawg
Risk/Return dynamics are hard to make sense of with the 10-year at 1.7% -
Um. Unemployment would be lower and would be harder to find good workers and prices would be thru the roof.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Sorry, this is more about the theft of about a trillion in IP a year which is one of the most important sectors of the US economy. It roughly translates to about 5% in immediate measurable GDP loss. How different do you think the economy would look with an added 5% growth per year in the last decade?HustlinOwl said:Can't wait for all the low paying jobs making plastic crap come back to the US.
-
I'm not sure Bob. Maybe put a few people in jail if they step foot in the US. Ban certain products from being sold here(this is somewhat being done). I'm just not sure 10's of billions of dollars in agriculture subsidies is the best way. I'm certainly no expert, just like our President.SFGbob said:
What would you do about China's IP theft Owl?HustlinOwl said:
Tell that to the farmers. It's not more about IP theft.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Sorry, this is more about the theft of about a trillion in IP a year which is one of the most important sectors of the US economy. It roughly translates to about 5% in immediate measurable GDP loss. How different do you think the economy would look with an added 5% growth per year in the last decade?HustlinOwl said:Can't wait for all the low paying jobs making plastic crap come back to the US.
-
Also should say there's likely no silver bullet. Companies should take appropriate measures to protect their IP knowing someone is actively trying to steal it. I can see this visibly happening within my organization. My phone won't even charge through my company PC.HustlinOwl said:
I'm not sure Bob. Maybe put a few people in jail if they step foot in the US. Ban certain products from being sold here(this is somewhat being done). I'm just not sure 10's of billions of dollars in agriculture subsidies is the best way. I'm certainly no expert, just like our President.SFGbob said:
What would you do about China's IP theft Owl?HustlinOwl said:
Tell that to the farmers. It's not more about IP theft.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Sorry, this is more about the theft of about a trillion in IP a year which is one of the most important sectors of the US economy. It roughly translates to about 5% in immediate measurable GDP loss. How different do you think the economy would look with an added 5% growth per year in the last decade?HustlinOwl said:Can't wait for all the low paying jobs making plastic crap come back to the US.
-
China is waging an economic war against the U.S. They will steal all the technology they can get their hands on. We should have taken action long ago.
-
Trade wars were never easy to win, and only a dumbfuck like Trump would claim they are. Some are worth fighting, most aren't. But if you'll refer back to your fucking econ education, trade wars, tariffs and restrictions of free trade typically end in higher prices paid by consumers, a net loss of jobs and not too much else.
So far we have billions in welfare payments to farmers, entire markets closed to US agricultural products, billions more in losses to the US economy due to higher prices on imported materials from China, one party's currency being devalued, annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd nothing's changed. Well, maybe the likelihood of a global recession has gone up.
Smart move. Probably why nobody else dived into it earlier.
-
But triggered pansies. Worth it.dflea said:Trade wars were never easy to win, and only a dumbfuck like Trump would claim they are. Some are worth fighting, most aren't. But if you'll refer back to your fucking econ education, trade wars, tariffs and restrictions of free trade typically end in higher prices paid by consumers, a net loss of jobs and not too much else.
So far we have billions in welfare payments to farmers, entire markets closed to US agricultural products, billions more in losses to the US economy due to higher prices on imported materials from China, one party's currency being devalued, annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd nothing's changed. Well, maybe the likelihood of a global recession has gone up.
Smart move. Probably why nobody else dived into it earlier. -
So you have no answers but you do have a very sore snatch. Got it.HustlinOwl said:
I'm not sure Bob. Maybe put a few people in jail if they step foot in the US. Ban certain products from being sold here(this is somewhat being done). I'm just not sure 10's of billions of dollars in agriculture subsidies is the best way. I'm certainly no expert, just like our President.SFGbob said:
What would you do about China's IP theft Owl?HustlinOwl said:
Tell that to the farmers. It's not more about IP theft.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Sorry, this is more about the theft of about a trillion in IP a year which is one of the most important sectors of the US economy. It roughly translates to about 5% in immediate measurable GDP loss. How different do you think the economy would look with an added 5% growth per year in the last decade?HustlinOwl said:Can't wait for all the low paying jobs making plastic crap come back to the US.
-
Wouldn’t hurt to negotiate a trade deal with like minded allies that include the stiffest IP protections ever included in a trade deal. In that way we could isolate China by making our priorities the worlds priority. We could call it...oh I don’t know...maybe TPP?HustlinOwl said:
Also should say there's likely no silver bullet. Companies should take appropriate measures to protect their IP knowing someone is actively trying to steal it. I can see this visibly happening within my organization. My phone won't even charge through my company PC.HustlinOwl said:
I'm not sure Bob. Maybe put a few people in jail if they step foot in the US. Ban certain products from being sold here(this is somewhat being done). I'm just not sure 10's of billions of dollars in agriculture subsidies is the best way. I'm certainly no expert, just like our President.SFGbob said:
What would you do about China's IP theft Owl?HustlinOwl said:
Tell that to the farmers. It's not more about IP theft.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Sorry, this is more about the theft of about a trillion in IP a year which is one of the most important sectors of the US economy. It roughly translates to about 5% in immediate measurable GDP loss. How different do you think the economy would look with an added 5% growth per year in the last decade?HustlinOwl said:Can't wait for all the low paying jobs making plastic crap come back to the US.
-
China's been cheating to win a trade war for 20 years. The US finally punched back.dflea said:Trade wars were never easy to win, and only a dumbfuck like Trump would claim they are. Some are worth fighting, most aren't. But if you'll refer back to your fucking econ education, trade wars, tariffs and restrictions of free trade typically end in higher prices paid by consumers, a net loss of jobs and not too much else.
So far we have billions in welfare payments to farmers, entire markets closed to US agricultural products, billions more in losses to the US economy due to higher prices on imported materials from China, one party's currency being devalued, annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd nothing's changed. Well, maybe the likelihood of a global recession has gone up.
Smart move. Probably why nobody else dived into it earlier.
Dems fucking suck at economics. That's why they're embracing Socialism with open arms.
If you want to throw your lot in with them, suit yourself. I'd expect you to know better. -
Oh FFS.........you are one clueless MF'r2001400ex said:
Um. Unemployment would be lower and would be harder to find good workers and prices would be thru the roof.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Sorry, this is more about the theft of about a trillion in IP a year which is one of the most important sectors of the US economy. It roughly translates to about 5% in immediate measurable GDP loss. How different do you think the economy would look with an added 5% growth per year in the last decade?HustlinOwl said:Can't wait for all the low paying jobs making plastic crap come back to the US.
-
Not engaging in trade wars isn't a Democrat idea, you fucking goat.TurdBomber said:
China's been cheating to win a trade war for 20 years. The US finally punched back.dflea said:Trade wars were never easy to win, and only a dumbfuck like Trump would claim they are. Some are worth fighting, most aren't. But if you'll refer back to your fucking econ education, trade wars, tariffs and restrictions of free trade typically end in higher prices paid by consumers, a net loss of jobs and not too much else.
So far we have billions in welfare payments to farmers, entire markets closed to US agricultural products, billions more in losses to the US economy due to higher prices on imported materials from China, one party's currency being devalued, annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd nothing's changed. Well, maybe the likelihood of a global recession has gone up.
Smart move. Probably why nobody else dived into it earlier.
Dems fucking suck at economics. That's why they're embracing Socialism with open arms.
If you want to throw your lot in with them, suit yourself. I'd expect you to know better. -
So what exactly is wrong with my response?Bendintheriver said:
Oh FFS.........you are one clueless MF'r2001400ex said:
Um. Unemployment would be lower and would be harder to find good workers and prices would be thru the roof.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Sorry, this is more about the theft of about a trillion in IP a year which is one of the most important sectors of the US economy. It roughly translates to about 5% in immediate measurable GDP loss. How different do you think the economy would look with an added 5% growth per year in the last decade?HustlinOwl said:Can't wait for all the low paying jobs making plastic crap come back to the US.
-
Bull Fucking Shit! If Trump's for it, the Dems are in lock-step against it. Where you been?dflea said:
Not engaging in trade wars isn't a Democrat idea, you fucking goat.TurdBomber said:
China's been cheating to win a trade war for 20 years. The US finally punched back.dflea said:Trade wars were never easy to win, and only a dumbfuck like Trump would claim they are. Some are worth fighting, most aren't. But if you'll refer back to your fucking econ education, trade wars, tariffs and restrictions of free trade typically end in higher prices paid by consumers, a net loss of jobs and not too much else.
So far we have billions in welfare payments to farmers, entire markets closed to US agricultural products, billions more in losses to the US economy due to higher prices on imported materials from China, one party's currency being devalued, annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd nothing's changed. Well, maybe the likelihood of a global recession has gone up.
Smart move. Probably why nobody else dived into it earlier.
Dems fucking suck at economics. That's why they're embracing Socialism with open arms.
If you want to throw your lot in with them, suit yourself. I'd expect you to know better.
Generally, you're right. Specifically, at this time, you are completely wrong.
NeoLiberal attitudes about Free-Trade had spread from R's to D's until Trump got elected.
Remember a guy named Al Gore shilling for NAFTA? Apparently not.
