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UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator BYU win Fupdate

UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 15,824 Swaye's Wigwam
The distribution curve continues to cluster tighter around 10-2 after a win against BYU. The odds of doing this well or better are now 65.6% and for the first time this season we? are more likely to go 11-1(26.8%) than 9-3(24.1%). Obviously, without a game against a PAC 12 opponent being played, conference values are unchanged since last week. 8-1 is still the most likely value at 38.8%. With OOC play complete the probabilities for the rest of the schedule will be identical statistically for overall record and conference record.





Since I was curious, I decided to compare our own HH polling probabilities and ESPN's FPI predictor. While individual matchups varied the overall average was very similar.



The FPI is updated weekly so it isn't quite an apples to apples comparison since FPI's numbers are from current mid-season values for all games moving forward. This explains the discrepancy between FPI's 92% for UW to win against UCLA and HH beginning of the season 75% for example. WSU is the other significant outlier which is likely due to HH greater familiarity with the cuog and it's ways. Curiosly, Oregon and Stanford are perfect inverses from one another by methodology. Overall, the averages are almost equal with ESPN actually being slightly more optimistic which results in a slightly better but almost identical win distribution curve.



As promised, updated PPG chart. Currently, Colorado poses the closest game by PPG metrics with Oregon also very tight. These teams pose a matchup challenge for our? DWAGS with high scoring offenses that favor shoot outs that our? offense is not designed for. Both teams numbers are likely inflated by poor competition thus far though.




Also, Math gifs






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Comments

  • CrawfishCrawfish Member Posts: 734
    Can you tell me if the data is increasingly pointing towards CFP for the Huskies?
  • UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 15,824 Swaye's Wigwam
    Crawfish said:

    Can you tell me if the data is increasingly pointing towards CFP for the Huskies?

    No, odds are we will be a 2 loss team and left out. Pray the pac 12 loss isn't to Stanford and UW isn't left out of the Pac12 Championship game again.
  • FireCohenFireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    I'll get it up on a UCLA forum once they accept my join request.
  • GilbystaintGilbystaint Member Posts: 1,061

    Pretty awesome that we created a model that is as statistically accurate as ESPN's FPI during amateur hour. "Sexperts" lol. Eat a dick ESPN.


  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680

    I'll get it up on a UCLA forum once they accept my join request.

    Awesome! Thanks for the update
  • oregonblitzkriegoregonblitzkrieg Member Posts: 15,288
    Shutting down Bryce Love, two defensive touchdowns and five takeaways against Cal. Oregon's defense sucks. Sure.
  • PurpleBazePurpleBaze Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 29,919 Founders Club
    edited October 2018

    Shutting down Bryce Love, two defensive touchdowns and five takeaways against Cal. Oregon's defense sucks. Sure.

    Way to contain a gimpy running back.

    And Cal sucks...
  • oregonblitzkriegoregonblitzkrieg Member Posts: 15,288

    Shutting down Bryce Love, two defensive touchdowns and five takeaways against Cal. Oregon's defense sucks. Sure.

    Way to contain a gimpy running back.

    And Cal sucks...
    Are you going to be saying the same thing about Gaskin poast game?

    And UW?
  • PurpleBazePurpleBaze Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 29,919 Founders Club
    edited October 2018

    Shutting down Bryce Love, two defensive touchdowns and five takeaways against Cal. Oregon's defense sucks. Sure.

    Way to contain a gimpy running back.

    And Cal sucks...
    Are you going to be saying the same thing about Gaskin poast game?

    And UW?
    You? are going to get raped.

    Gaskin doesn't have a bad ankle.
  • UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 15,824 Swaye's Wigwam

    Shutting down Bryce Love, two defensive touchdowns and five takeaways against Cal. Oregon's defense sucks. Sure.

    Stanford? The team that averages 26ppg that hung 38 on Oregon is probably not the best game to point to for why the defense doesn't suck.

    Oregon put Cal below it's average by basically nothing meaningful since it's likely their ppg is going to go down during conference play.

    Bowling Green(lol) put up an above average game against the ducks.

    Oregon's defense basically allows the other teams offense to perform right to average which considering the weighted competition isn't good. They should have had -20pt types of performances against the bad teams they have played if they were "good".
  • oregonblitzkriegoregonblitzkrieg Member Posts: 15,288
    Underperforming against preseason cupcakes is a common thing. It's a motivational issue more than anything. Oregon pounded Stanford like a preason cupcake for 3 1/2 quarters. Becoming a fourth quarter team for the UW game will be the focus I believe.
  • PurpleBazePurpleBaze Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 29,919 Founders Club

    Underperforming against preseason cupcakes is a common thing. It's a motivational issue more than anything. Oregon pounded Stanford like a preason cupcake for 3 1/2 quarters. Becoming a fourth quarter team for the UW game will be the focus I believe.

    3.5 quarters are impressive... Unfortunately, you? are supposed to play 4 whole quarters.
  • MisterEmMisterEm Member Posts: 6,685

    Underperforming against preseason cupcakes is a common thing. It's a motivational issue more than anything. Oregon pounded Stanford like a preason cupcake for 3 1/2 quarters. Becoming a fourth quarter team for the UW game will be the focus I believe.

    A loss is a loss, quook. There are no moral victories in the FBS.

    It certainly looks worse when you lose a 17 pt. lead.... at home.
  • oregonblitzkriegoregonblitzkrieg Member Posts: 15,288

    Underperforming against preseason cupcakes is a common thing. It's a motivational issue more than anything. Oregon pounded Stanford like a preason cupcake for 3 1/2 quarters. Becoming a fourth quarter team for the UW game will be the focus I believe.

    3.5 quarters are impressive... Unfortunately, you? are supposed to play 4 whole quarters.
    Pretty sure I just said that. Clean your coke bottle glasses.
  • PurpleBazePurpleBaze Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 29,919 Founders Club

    Underperforming against preseason cupcakes is a common thing. It's a motivational issue more than anything. Oregon pounded Stanford like a preason cupcake for 3 1/2 quarters. Becoming a fourth quarter team for the UW game will be the focus I believe.

    3.5 quarters are impressive... Unfortunately, you? are supposed to play 4 whole quarters.
    Pretty sure I just said that. Clean your coke bottle glasses.
    Good luck becoming that during a BYE week. I'm sure Feld's motivational speeches & hype will help. So much sizzle down in Eugene...

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