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UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator BYU win Fupdate
UW_Doog_Bot
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 14,206
The distribution curve continues to cluster tighter around 10-2 after a win against BYU. The odds of doing this well or better are now 65.6% and for the first time this season we? are more likely to go 11-1(26.8%) than 9-3(24.1%). Obviously, without a game against a PAC 12 opponent being played, conference values are unchanged since last week. 8-1 is still the most likely value at 38.8%. With OOC play complete the probabilities for the rest of the schedule will be identical statistically for overall record and conference record.
Since I was curious, I decided to compare our own HH polling probabilities and ESPN's FPI predictor. While individual matchups varied the overall average was very similar.
The FPI is updated weekly so it isn't quite an apples to apples comparison since FPI's numbers are from current mid-season values for all games moving forward. This explains the discrepancy between FPI's 92% for UW to win against UCLA and HH beginning of the season 75% for example. WSU is the other significant outlier which is likely due to HH greater familiarity with the cuog and it's ways. Curiosly, Oregon and Stanford are perfect inverses from one another by methodology. Overall, the averages are almost equal with ESPN actually being slightly more optimistic which results in a slightly better but almost identical win distribution curve.
As promised, updated PPG chart. Currently, Colorado poses the closest game by PPG metrics with Oregon also very tight. These teams pose a matchup challenge for our? DWAGS with high scoring offenses that favor shoot outs that our? offense is not designed for. Both teams numbers are likely inflated by poor competition thus far though.
Also, Math gifs
Since I was curious, I decided to compare our own HH polling probabilities and ESPN's FPI predictor. While individual matchups varied the overall average was very similar.
The FPI is updated weekly so it isn't quite an apples to apples comparison since FPI's numbers are from current mid-season values for all games moving forward. This explains the discrepancy between FPI's 92% for UW to win against UCLA and HH beginning of the season 75% for example. WSU is the other significant outlier which is likely due to HH greater familiarity with the cuog and it's ways. Curiosly, Oregon and Stanford are perfect inverses from one another by methodology. Overall, the averages are almost equal with ESPN actually being slightly more optimistic which results in a slightly better but almost identical win distribution curve.
As promised, updated PPG chart. Currently, Colorado poses the closest game by PPG metrics with Oregon also very tight. These teams pose a matchup challenge for our? DWAGS with high scoring offenses that favor shoot outs that our? offense is not designed for. Both teams numbers are likely inflated by poor competition thus far though.
Also, Math gifs
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Oregon's offense is over performing by about 12 points while their defense is basically allowing teams to score their average ppg with less than a 3 point difference. That's pretty laughable when considering the poor competition levels they have faced so far. You would expect more inflated defensive numbers against bad offenses. Oregon's defense is probably bad. Oregon's offense is probably above average but hard to judge just how above average because of the inflated numbers.
Stanford's Offense is performing right at average with only about a 3 ppg above the expected PPG allowed by the other team. If you take out OT against the Ducks it's completely negligible at 1.5ppg. The defense, on the other had, is actually performing almost as well as the Husky defense(-14.9) by allowing -14.5 points less per game than their opponents PPG. This is kind of surprising since I think most of us are under the impression that the offense has been carrying the team while the defense has been below average. Admittedly, there's probably a lot of variance occurring because of USC's young qb, and inflated ppg stats for both UC Davis and Oregon offensively.
So what does this mean for UW? The simple score predictions are listed above but I think it's more interesting if you average the the over/under performance together from both opponents and UW.
TLDR
UW 31 Oregon 27
UW 22 Stanford 13
And Cal sucks...
And UW?
Gaskin doesn't have a bad ankle.
Oregon put Cal below it's average by basically nothing meaningful since it's likely their ppg is going to go down during conference play.
Bowling Green(lol) put up an above average game against the ducks.
Oregon's defense basically allows the other teams offense to perform right to average which considering the weighted competition isn't good. They should have had -20pt types of performances against the bad teams they have played if they were "good".
It certainly looks worse when you lose a 17 pt. lead.... at home.