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UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator BYU win Fupdate

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Comments

  • DoogCouricsDoogCourics Member Posts: 5,739
    edited October 2018

    Shutting down Bryce Love, two defensive touchdowns and five takeaways against Cal. Oregon's defense sucks. Sure.

    Shut down Bryce love but still allow Stanford to score 11.4 points more than their average.

    Get two defensive touchdowns and and five takeaways, yet Cal only scores 4.5 points less than they normally do.

    Sure, Oregon’s defense sucks.
  • phineasphineas Member Posts: 4,732
    I'm not smart enough for this
  • UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 15,824 Swaye's Wigwam
    edited October 2018
    phineas said:

    I'm not smart enough for this

    We are probably dropping one of either @ Oregon or vs. Stanford the rest of the way(but that's it). HH polling beginning of the season says Stanford. ESPN FPI and PPG metrics would say Oregon is the bigger toss up. From a "winning the North" perspective it's probably better to beat Stanford and lose to Oregon. We are still favored in both games though and have a decent probability of winning out. We could also drop a game that we "should" really win while beating both of those teams but that is less likely.

    10-2 overall and 8-1 conference records are what the maf' is predicting.
  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 26,950
    I thight obk was taking a break to prepare for the disappointing rest of the season
  • backthepackbackthepack Member Posts: 19,861

    phineas said:

    I'm not smart enough for this

    We are probably dropping one of either @ Oregon or vs. Stanford the rest of the way(but that's it). HH polling beginning of the season says Stanford. ESPN FPI and PPG metrics would say Oregon is the bigger toss up. From a "winning the North" perspective it's probably better to beat Stanford and lose to Oregon. We are still favored in both games though and have a decent probability of winning out. We could also drop a game that we "should" really win while beating both of those teams but that is less likely.

    10-2 overall and 8-1 conference records are what the maf' is predicting.
    It would be better if we won both games like we should.
  • UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 15,824 Swaye's Wigwam

    phineas said:

    I'm not smart enough for this

    We are probably dropping one of either @ Oregon or vs. Stanford the rest of the way(but that's it). HH polling beginning of the season says Stanford. ESPN FPI and PPG metrics would say Oregon is the bigger toss up. From a "winning the North" perspective it's probably better to beat Stanford and lose to Oregon. We are still favored in both games though and have a decent probability of winning out. We could also drop a game that we "should" really win while beating both of those teams but that is less likely.

    10-2 overall and 8-1 conference records are what the maf' is predicting.
    It would be better if we won both games like we should.
    Of course, I'm just telling you what the math predicts as a probability distribution. Alabama is usually favored in every single game they play but they still usually drop one.

    Even if you are at 90% to win every game, over a ten game schedule that means the most likely outcome is that you are 9-1 even though in a vacuum you should have also won that 1 game.
  • backthepackbackthepack Member Posts: 19,861

    phineas said:

    I'm not smart enough for this

    We are probably dropping one of either @ Oregon or vs. Stanford the rest of the way(but that's it). HH polling beginning of the season says Stanford. ESPN FPI and PPG metrics would say Oregon is the bigger toss up. From a "winning the North" perspective it's probably better to beat Stanford and lose to Oregon. We are still favored in both games though and have a decent probability of winning out. We could also drop a game that we "should" really win while beating both of those teams but that is less likely.

    10-2 overall and 8-1 conference records are what the maf' is predicting.
    It would be better if we won both games like we should.
    Of course, I'm just telling you what the math predicts as a probability distribution. Alabama is usually favored in every single game they play but they still usually drop one.

    Even if you are at 90% to win every game, over a ten game schedule that means the most likely outcome is that you are 9-1 even though in a vacuum you should have also won that 1 game.

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