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Michael Yon's post on North Korea and the geopolitical game being played - War now seems imminent
DerekJohnson
Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 62,502 
NORK: Just after the latest detonation, I asked a well-connected friend what he and his contacts think.
He is connected very high in the USG. One day, he took me up to Condoleeza Rice's office but she was not around. I always liked her and would have been good to say hello. She should have ran for President.
His response:
Sorry for the late response. I thought it was a posting and I saved it for reading. I didn't see it was a question just to me.
Anyway, my contacts at DoD and DoS say different things, mostly tracking their mission, but agree, in different words, on one thing:
The test is a red line and the bet by Russia, China, and DPRK is that the US will not cross it.
It is becoming increasingly apparent that the DPRK is the sock puppet of an international conspiracy headed by Russia and China to destabilize the Pacific and the adjacent east and southeast Asian landmass.
To not cross the red line and PUNISH the DPRK is to throw Seoul under the bus, which is exactly the same as throwing Japan and the wider southeast Asian nations, plus Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and in the long run, India under the bus. American credibility is being severely tested, which is precisely the goal of China and Russia. The DPRK is the low risk/high reward stooge in this massive geopolitical power play, but given their resources and dependence on the kindness of "strangers", they have no choice in this game of brinkmanship.
Generally, both the DoD and DoS agree that war is the only long term solution to this issue. It is an international crisis perpetrated by wanna-be global powers to bring down the US's influence in the Pacific and diminish the US maritime reach (military, trade, influence, and defense).
Put the foreign policy of the Obama and Clinton administrations into the equation, you will see why Russia and China are playing this game. They may actually have US nuclear codes (they've no doubt changed by now, but merely knowing old ones says a lot about the new ones). Obama did publicly release the exact, precise, number of nuclear weapons, from which any idiot could accurately extrapolate the various platforms, throws, and targets. In other words, our national nuclear arsenal has been compromised for eight years.
Given Obama's radical draw down of the defense budget and the wear and tear on our existing equipment in the Middle East (don't doubt Iran is in on this deal with Russia and China), the US is clearly in a compromised offensive posture.
But, to allow DPRK to get away with this provocation means we lose the Pacific and China will see this as a green light to run amok and seize whatever they want and intimidate the rest.
Generally, my contacts see war or capitulation.
He is connected very high in the USG. One day, he took me up to Condoleeza Rice's office but she was not around. I always liked her and would have been good to say hello. She should have ran for President.
His response:
Sorry for the late response. I thought it was a posting and I saved it for reading. I didn't see it was a question just to me.
Anyway, my contacts at DoD and DoS say different things, mostly tracking their mission, but agree, in different words, on one thing:
The test is a red line and the bet by Russia, China, and DPRK is that the US will not cross it.
It is becoming increasingly apparent that the DPRK is the sock puppet of an international conspiracy headed by Russia and China to destabilize the Pacific and the adjacent east and southeast Asian landmass.
To not cross the red line and PUNISH the DPRK is to throw Seoul under the bus, which is exactly the same as throwing Japan and the wider southeast Asian nations, plus Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and in the long run, India under the bus. American credibility is being severely tested, which is precisely the goal of China and Russia. The DPRK is the low risk/high reward stooge in this massive geopolitical power play, but given their resources and dependence on the kindness of "strangers", they have no choice in this game of brinkmanship.
Generally, both the DoD and DoS agree that war is the only long term solution to this issue. It is an international crisis perpetrated by wanna-be global powers to bring down the US's influence in the Pacific and diminish the US maritime reach (military, trade, influence, and defense).
Put the foreign policy of the Obama and Clinton administrations into the equation, you will see why Russia and China are playing this game. They may actually have US nuclear codes (they've no doubt changed by now, but merely knowing old ones says a lot about the new ones). Obama did publicly release the exact, precise, number of nuclear weapons, from which any idiot could accurately extrapolate the various platforms, throws, and targets. In other words, our national nuclear arsenal has been compromised for eight years.
Given Obama's radical draw down of the defense budget and the wear and tear on our existing equipment in the Middle East (don't doubt Iran is in on this deal with Russia and China), the US is clearly in a compromised offensive posture.
But, to allow DPRK to get away with this provocation means we lose the Pacific and China will see this as a green light to run amok and seize whatever they want and intimidate the rest.
Generally, my contacts see war or capitulation.
Comments
If Trump pusses out, too, I'll be surprised. If he lights that little fucker up, I'll have to take back some of the shit I've been talking about him.
Dictators should probably only be overthrown when the underlying population can sustain itself when the nutjob is gone...no way that can happen in NK. You'd need a military occupation for a generation or two and nobody wants to sign up for that, especially realizing that if you actually fix it you will just lose it to SK. NK doesn't have oil nor is it in the center of a religion that is dead set on killing everyone that doesn't pray to their god.
Only good way to really do it would be to find/train a relative of the nutjob family to be a better dictator, and then go install him so that the locals think the new dictator deity is just as good as the old one, and then work with him over time on slowly bringing NK up to the 19th and then 20th century. And even that would be a shot in the dark and probably be impossible in this media age.
The dad at least had enough wits to do a couple nuclear tests to get a bunch of food and then stop until he ran out...the son seems to have bought into all the nutjob propaganda the dad put on the people.
DoD has more conspiracy bullshit people in it, but that's because they're too busy being the tip of the spear to bother to learn how to joust.
"War or capitulation," fucking Christ. Waste of time reading this tripe.