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Jon Wilner on UW's soft, flaccid, cupcake, cream puff schedule

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Comments

  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,825

    89ute said:

    Mosster47 said:

    The conference overall is going to be a lot better. The three high school games before conference play is helpful though.

    I see 10-2 for the Doogs.

    I think OSU, UCLA and UO will all be harder outs than last year, but I also think we? are a better team than last year. The way I see it is:

    10-2 - 25%
    11- 1 - 50%
    12-0 - 25%
    I put your 12-0 much higher. If yooze have a loss, it's a WTF loss. Pete built his career at Boise avoiding WTF losses. It would not shock me if Pete has more undefeated seasons than any other coach. (this is a good question by the way)

    Pete knows how to run the table against inferior competition.
    Apologies in advance for injecting some MAFF into the discussion but a 25% chance of going undefeated over a 12 game schedule is extremely high.

    UW would basically need to be >95% favorites in every single game.

    .96^12=.69

    Small probabilities accumulate over 12 games.

    Then throw in a couple games where UW is less than 66% to win and it is pretty much impossible to get to 25%.
    Somewhere in the 15% range feels about right to me
  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,825
    ntxduck said:

    UW is -1 over Furd at the Westgate right now if you are into free money handouts. I hit that hard last weekend.

    For those looking to bet the mortgage ... that's a very appealing option if you are of the belief that it's hard to beat the Death Row Dawgs defense without a QB
  • ntxduckntxduck Member Posts: 5,574
    Tequilla said:

    ntxduck said:

    UW is -1 over Furd at the Westgate right now if you are into free money handouts. I hit that hard last weekend.

    For those looking to bet the mortgage ... that's a very appealing option if you are of the belief that it's hard to beat the Death Row Dawgs defense without a QB
    The speed difference between UW and Stanford was unreal last year...I have a hard time believing Stanford closed even 20% of that gap in the offseason. May be close for a half, but UW will pull away to win rather easily, say, 34-17?
  • FremontTrollFremontTroll Member Posts: 4,744
    You guys I screwed up 5th grade maff. I suck. Ignore me.
  • FireCohenFireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    edited August 2017
    89ute said:

    89ute said:

    Mosster47 said:

    The conference overall is going to be a lot better. The three high school games before conference play is helpful though.

    I see 10-2 for the Doogs.

    I think OSU, UCLA and UO will all be harder outs than last year, but I also think we? are a better team than last year. The way I see it is:

    10-2 - 25%
    11- 1 - 50%
    12-0 - 25%
    I put your 12-0 much higher. If yooze have a loss, it's a WTF loss. Pete built his career at Boise avoiding WTF losses. It would not shock me if Pete has more undefeated seasons than any other coach. (this is a good question by the way)

    Pete knows how to run the table against inferior competition.
    Apologies in advance for injecting some MAFF into the discussion but a 25% chance of going undefeated over a 12 game schedule is extremely high.

    UW would basically need to be >95% favorites in every single game.

    .96^12=.69

    Small probabilities accumulate over 12 games.

    Then throw in a couple games where UW is less than 66% to win and it is pretty much impossible to get to 25%.
    Here, lemme help:

    image

    = real fucking high probability of 12-0
    i need roaddawg to verify the math.
  • SwayeSwaye Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 41,356 Founders Club

    tenndawg said:

    Whiskey swilling anti-Confederte historians and bumbling mathematicians- pay close attention


    Here's my odds:

    12-0 37%
    11-1 44.3%
    10-2. 5.1 %

    Total Record: 33-3
    Total Percent: 86.4%

    33-3 =30

    30 X 86.4 = 2592

    2592 is the correct answer

    Christ you're worse than me at Maff. You best stick to wearing a cheap seer suckersucker suit, defending pederasts in non air conditioned, backwoods Appalachia court rooms.
    Coker deserves a good defense.
  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 34,943 Founders Club
    Swaye said:

    tenndawg said:

    Whiskey swilling anti-Confederte historians and bumbling mathematicians- pay close attention


    Here's my odds:

    12-0 37%
    11-1 44.3%
    10-2. 5.1 %

    Total Record: 33-3
    Total Percent: 86.4%

    33-3 =30

    30 X 86.4 = 2592

    2592 is the correct answer

    Christ you're worse than me at Maff. You best stick to wearing a cheap seer suckersucker suit, defending pederasts in non air conditioned, backwoods Appalachia court rooms.
    Coker deserves a good defense.
    @tenndawg as general counsel for the TSIO is over. Love it!
  • AZDuckAZDuck Member Posts: 15,381
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