The season depends on the starting rotation. I'm buying Paxton. He just needs to stay healthy. I think Felix is about done. If he can even pitch to last year's level for a full season, it's a win.
If they can get to July in contention, a deal has to be made for a starter. They won't survive as is, especially considering the bullpen is mostly subpar.
I think it's a bit premature to say that Felix is done and it is early in the year ... but there is reason for concern ...
So far this year his batting average against is .330 ... even last year his batting average against was .239 (that's inline with his career average of .240) ... his issue last year was his BB rate of almost 4 BBs per 9 innings. You could look at a higher HR rate against last year and so far this year 5 in 24.2 IP as an issue. But then again, he's at a 20:1 K:BB rate this year ... so the control is better and he's still getting K's at a decent clip (although slightly lower than his career average).
He's probably more properly slotted as a #2 starter at this point in his career ... but still capable of delivering a #1 performance. I think he's in the process of trying to reinvent himself ... he's too good to not eventually transition into the next phase of his career. Right now he's getting too much of the plate and throwing too many strikes. I'm sure he'll continue to make an adjustment(s).
As for Paxton, I agree that he's a buy in his performance. The first thing I look for in a pitcher is how easy their throwing motion is ... for Paxton he's throwing an easy 97 right now getting great action on his pitches as the ball is exploding on hitters without their ability to get any kind of comfortable swings on him. As much as everybody looks at speed and hard throwers to get outs ... at the core pitching is about making the batter uncomfortable and the inability to make confident swings/contact on the ball.
The flaw from DiPoto IMO was his inability to build out a strong bullpen ... a necessity in today's game. I don't have a ton of confidence in Kuma and Gallardo is a JAG at this point in his career. They desperately need Smyly to come back healthy as he's going to be desperately missed.
The season depends on the starting rotation. I'm buying Paxton. He just needs to stay healthy. I think Felix is about done. If he can even pitch to last year's level for a full season, it's a win.
If they can get to July in contention, a deal has to be made for a starter. They won't survive as is, especially considering the bullpen is mostly subpar.
I think it's a bit premature to say that Felix is done and it is early in the year ... but there is reason for concern ...
So far this year his batting average against is .330 ... even last year his batting average against was .239 (that's inline with his career average of .240) ... his issue last year was his BB rate of almost 4 BBs per 9 innings. You could look at a higher HR rate against last year and so far this year 5 in 24.2 IP as an issue. But then again, he's at a 20:1 K:BB rate this year ... so the control is better and he's still getting K's at a decent clip (although slightly lower than his career average).
He's probably more properly slotted as a #2 starter at this point in his career ... but still capable of delivering a #1 performance. I think he's in the process of trying to reinvent himself ... he's too good to not eventually transition into the next phase of his career. Right now he's getting too much of the plate and throwing too many strikes. I'm sure he'll continue to make an adjustment(s).
As for Paxton, I agree that he's a buy in his performance. The first thing I look for in a pitcher is how easy their throwing motion is ... for Paxton he's throwing an easy 97 right now getting great action on his pitches as the ball is exploding on hitters without their ability to get any kind of comfortable swings on him. As much as everybody looks at speed and hard throwers to get outs ... at the core pitching is about making the batter uncomfortable and the inability to make confident swings/contact on the ball.
The flaw from DiPoto IMO was his inability to build out a strong bullpen ... a necessity in today's game. I don't have a ton of confidence in Kuma and Gallardo is a JAG at this point in his career. They desperately need Smyly to come back healthy as he's going to be desperately missed.
Right now it is yea. The bullpen can't be fixed. The rotation will be good in about 3 months but it will be too late then when they are 15 games under .500
I do like what Dipoto is doing though. Its nice having young players like Haniger and Gammel who are actually good instead of the fucking dreckfest that was Brad Miller, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, Nick Franklin etc.
Right now it is yea. The bullpen can't be fixed. The rotation will be good in about 3 months but it will be too late then when they are 15 games under .500
I do like what Dipoto is doing though. Its nice having young players like Haniger and Gammel who are actually good instead of the fucking dreckfest that was Brad Miller, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, Nick Franklin etc.
Agree with the 2nd paragraph. Haniger kept the team afloat when he was healthy and Gamel has been a huge surprise. The rotation is horrible though. Obviously injuries have decimated it, but it wasn't good to begin with and Paxton getting injured should not be a surprise.
Right now it is yea. The bullpen can't be fixed. The rotation will be good in about 3 months but it will be too late then when they are 15 games under .500
I do like what Dipoto is doing though. Its nice having young players like Haniger and Gammel who are actually good instead of the fucking dreckfest that was Brad Miller, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, Nick Franklin etc.
Agree with the 2nd paragraph. Haniger kept the team afloat when he was healthy and Gamel has been a huge surprise. The rotation is horrible though. Obviously injuries have decimated it, but it wasn't good to begin with and Paxton getting injured should not be a surprise.
At full strength Felix lite, Paxton, Smyly, Iwakuma, and Gallardo is a very good rotation. Smyly was killing it before the injury, even bad Felix is still better than most, and Paxton has been pitching at a very consistent level... not just one of those random 2 game sprees he use to go on, he wants to get paid. So I disagree that the rotation was never good to begin with, it just hasn't been 100% healthy at any point of the season.
Right now it is yea. The bullpen can't be fixed. The rotation will be good in about 3 months but it will be too late then when they are 15 games under .500
I do like what Dipoto is doing though. Its nice having young players like Haniger and Gammel who are actually good instead of the fucking dreckfest that was Brad Miller, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, Nick Franklin etc.
Agree with the 2nd paragraph. Haniger kept the team afloat when he was healthy and Gamel has been a huge surprise. The rotation is horrible though. Obviously injuries have decimated it, but it wasn't good to begin with and Paxton getting injured should not be a surprise.
At full strength Felix lite, Paxton, Smyly, Iwakuma, and Gallardo is a very good rotation. Smyly was killing it before the injury, even bad Felix is still better than most, and Paxton has been pitching at a very consistent level... not just one of those random 2 game sprees he use to go on, he wants to get paid. So I disagree that the rotation was never good to begin with, it just hasn't been 100% healthy at any point of the season.
Kuma is done. Gallardo is done. Felix might be. Paxton is the shit and Smyly is solid. The rotation was the concern going into the year and for good reason. It's not a good rotation.
Right now it is yea. The bullpen can't be fixed. The rotation will be good in about 3 months but it will be too late then when they are 15 games under .500
I do like what Dipoto is doing though. Its nice having young players like Haniger and Gammel who are actually good instead of the fucking dreckfest that was Brad Miller, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, Nick Franklin etc.
Agree with the 2nd paragraph. Haniger kept the team afloat when he was healthy and Gamel has been a huge surprise. The rotation is horrible though. Obviously injuries have decimated it, but it wasn't good to begin with and Paxton getting injured should not be a surprise.
At full strength Felix lite, Paxton, Smyly, Iwakuma, and Gallardo is a very good rotation. Smyly was killing it before the injury, even bad Felix is still better than most, and Paxton has been pitching at a very consistent level... not just one of those random 2 game sprees he use to go on, he wants to get paid. So I disagree that the rotation was never good to begin with, it just hasn't been 100% healthy at any point of the season.
Kuma is done. Gallardo is done. Felix might be. Paxton is the shit and Smyly is solid. The rotation was the concern going into the year and for good reason. It's not a good rotation.
The offense is fanfuckingtastic though.
Look at Paxton this year. 1.47 ERA through 6 games and he has looked way better than he ever has. Maybe he had his Henry Roengardner moment and this injury reset him to suck, but you can't deny he has been one of the better pitchers in the AL until he got hurt. Iwakuma has these weird 10/11 ER games but the rest he can keep teams from 2-4 very consistently which is what any team wants. Gollardo is a #5 pitcher and pitches like a #5 pitcher would. 4.58 ERA for a #5 isn't horrible.
Right now it is yea. The bullpen can't be fixed. The rotation will be good in about 3 months but it will be too late then when they are 15 games under .500
I do like what Dipoto is doing though. Its nice having young players like Haniger and Gammel who are actually good instead of the fucking dreckfest that was Brad Miller, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, Nick Franklin etc.
Agree with the 2nd paragraph. Haniger kept the team afloat when he was healthy and Gamel has been a huge surprise. The rotation is horrible though. Obviously injuries have decimated it, but it wasn't good to begin with and Paxton getting injured should not be a surprise.
At full strength Felix lite, Paxton, Smyly, Iwakuma, and Gallardo is a very good rotation. Smyly was killing it before the injury, even bad Felix is still better than most, and Paxton has been pitching at a very consistent level... not just one of those random 2 game sprees he use to go on, he wants to get paid. So I disagree that the rotation was never good to begin with, it just hasn't been 100% healthy at any point of the season.
Kuma is done. Gallardo is done. Felix might be. Paxton is the shit and Smyly is solid. The rotation was the concern going into the year and for good reason. It's not a good rotation.
The offense is fanfuckingtastic though.
Look at Paxton this year. 1.47 ERA through 6 games and he has looked way better than he ever has. Maybe he had his Henry Roengardner moment and this injury reset him to suck, but you can't deny he has been one of the better pitchers in the AL until he got hurt. Iwakuma has these weird 10/11 ER games but the rest he can keep teams from 2-4 very consistently which is what any team wants. Gollardo is a #5 pitcher and pitches like a #5 pitcher would. 4.58 ERA for a #5 isn't horrible.
Paxton is the shit like I said.
Kuma is bad.
Gallardo is shit.
It's not a good rotation.
Paxton - very good for a 1 Smyly - okay for a 2 Felix - okay for a 3 Kuma - bad for a 4 Gallardo - bad for a 5
That's a below average rotation if all healthy, and it's one where basically everyone is a health risk.
And an ERA of 4.58 when pitching in Safeco in front of this defense is very bad.
And the crazy thing is I think the offense is good enough to overcome all that, IF they could get Paxton, Felix and Smyly healthy. That's unlikely though, so they'll probably miss the playoffs, again.
Comments
They'll be 10 under by memorial day
Take this to the Tug where it belongs!
I do like what Dipoto is doing though. Its nice having young players like Haniger and Gammel who are actually good instead of the fucking dreckfest that was Brad Miller, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, Nick Franklin etc.
The offense is fanfuckingtastic though.
Kuma is bad.
Gallardo is shit.
It's not a good rotation.
Paxton - very good for a 1
Smyly - okay for a 2
Felix - okay for a 3
Kuma - bad for a 4
Gallardo - bad for a 5
That's a below average rotation if all healthy, and it's one where basically everyone is a health risk.
And an ERA of 4.58 when pitching in Safeco in front of this defense is very bad.
Paxton is very good, but he has never stayed healthy. I doubt he will this year either. It would be a surprise if he made 30 starts.