Hooks Rams OFFICIAL thread
Comments
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I give them a 1 in 10 shot of making the super bowl. If you assume that the first playoff game is a 55/45 game and the next 2 would be 40/60 games, the true odds would be more like 9%.
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That sounds about right. Considering there are 12 teams in the tourney that's really good odds for a team that has to play three games on the road to get there.Bob_C said:I give them a 1 in 10 shot of making the super bowl. If you assume that the first playoff game is a 55/45 game and the next 2 would be 40/60 games, the true odds would be more like 9%.
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Right now with their health the chances are 0. That's why they need to sit guys next week
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That's 9% of getting to the Super Bowl against a bracket of six teams not twelve.
It's probably even slimmerin reality, maybe more like 6% considering a 4 point spread would equate to about a 66% win percentage. I'm assuming here that Seattle is on average a 55% favorite (or 2 points) in round 1, Seattle is around a 4 point underdog to either Carolina or Arizona in both round 2 and 3. For context, Carolina and Arizona has roughly a 33% chance each, assuming they are 66% favorites in the round 2 games and 50/50 against each other.
Dispute my underlying assumptions all you want, but that's what the math suggests. -
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I always laugh when thinking back on that Super Bowl 40 season at how crappy the league was that year. The NFC playoff qb's that year were Hasselbeck, Delhomme, Grossman, Chris Simms, Brunell and 2nd year Eli Manning. Pittsburgh as a #6 seed beat Kitna (after Palmer injured in 1st quarter) Peyton Manning and Jake Plummer to get to the Super Bowl and we're basically a unanimous favorite against Seattle as the #1 seed.
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Hawks season will end on the same field it did last season.
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I mostly watched the Hawks (in Suckattle at the moment, not AZ). The whole NFC East is terrible and it's less likely to be 4 degrees in DC so weather shouldn't be a big factor. I think they can blow them out similar to 2012.HuskyInAZ said:
Did you watch the AZ/GB game today? GB's OL is decimated. Seattle's defense would eat them for lunch.Fire_Marshall_Bill said:
Disagreedhdawg said:
We?DerekJohnson said:
Not if we're fighting for the 5th seeddhdawg said:The Seahawks need to rest their starters next week either way. Right now health is a much bigger issue than seeding
And what difference does it make. gb and Washington are both the same, neither is terrible nor great
I'll take the Deadskins 10 out of 10 times -
A lot of it is who's hot at the right time. Both years the Giants won the SB with Manning, they weren't best team on the field in at least two of those playoff games, but they were clicking at the right time. Same thing with Pittsburgh in 2005. The NFL still has the best post-season of the BIG 4 sports despite that flaw. Heck, I don't even think it's a flaw. I think all sports should adopt the one and done method in the post-season, or at least shorten their series.Bob_C said:I always laugh when thinking back on that Super Bowl 40 season at how crappy the league was that year. The NFC playoff qb's that year were Hasselbeck, Delhomme, Grossman, Chris Simms, Brunell and 2nd year Eli Manning. Pittsburgh as a #6 seed beat Kitna (after Palmer injured in 1st quarter) Peyton Manning and Jake Plummer to get to the Super Bowl and we're basically a unanimous favorite against Seattle as the #1 seed.
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Upvoted until the last sentence. One and done is definitely most entertaining, but doesn't give the best champion. In a sport like football where there are so few regular season games it makes sense. It wouldn't make sense in other sports.greenblood said:
A lot of it is who's hot at the right time. Both years the Giants won the SB with Manning, they weren't best team on the field in at least two of those playoff games, but they were clicking at the right time. Same thing with Pittsburgh in 2005. The NFL still has the best post-season of the BIG 4 sports despite that flaw. Heck, I don't even think it's a flaw. I think all sports should adopt the one and done method in the post-season, or at least shorten their series.Bob_C said:I always laugh when thinking back on that Super Bowl 40 season at how crappy the league was that year. The NFC playoff qb's that year were Hasselbeck, Delhomme, Grossman, Chris Simms, Brunell and 2nd year Eli Manning. Pittsburgh as a #6 seed beat Kitna (after Palmer injured in 1st quarter) Peyton Manning and Jake Plummer to get to the Super Bowl and we're basically a unanimous favorite against Seattle as the #1 seed.
