Saw your study on Dawgman. So you decided to take the plunge here?
Kim and his army of minions are totally delusional.
Been following the HHB since the beginning, love the podcasts and still have the hire mora shirts from 2008. Normally don't have much to say, but that study really opened my eyes to how bad Sark is. I didn't say this on dawgman, but the numbers show that he should've been fired after year 3. the question should be "when does a random coach become a better bet % wise than sark". That was after year 3, and possibly after year 2 (i'd have to go back and look at the numbers again).
Hope this site really takes off, and derek seems like a straight forward, don't mess with success type guy..which is what a simple business like msg boards need..someone who isn't constanly tinkering to fuel their own ego like Kim. Dawgman is only successful because they had the "first mover advantage" which normally is pretty hard to fuck up. Kim is doing his best to ruin an indistructable business.
i'm reminded of a great warren buffett quote about coca cola: ""I try and buy wonderful businesses that an idiot can run, because someday one probably will."
dawgman is a great business, and Kim is that idiot. We'll see if it survives
Bill Gates has a great talk about teachers*. Without him knowing much about teaching (the "x's and o's") he showed that after 3 years, the improvement in teaching skill is 0.
i draw a lot of parallels between this and the coaching search....and the "10 years of experience needed" that i always here as well in the job market. I'm willing to bet 90% of professions follow exactly like teaching...experience is largely complete bullshit...you are you who are whether you 60 or 25. if you suck at math at 25, you will suck at math at 60. Sark sucks now and he's going to suck in 20 years.
I'll eventually post it here, but i did an analysis of the past 40 years of pac10 coaches. Basically, with sarks record where its at now, the chance of him ever winning 10+ games is about 8%. That is EVER winning 10 games. Meanwhile the chance of a random coach winning 10+ in their FIRST season is about 8%. Of course woodward probably has a art history major working for him as his data analyst so i'm confident woodward will go with his "gut" and we'll be stuck with 7/8 win season for the next 5 years
This type of premium info is why I pay $12.99 a month here. Good study!
Bill Gates has a great talk about teachers*. Without him knowing much about teaching (the "x's and o's") he showed that after 3 years, the improvement in teaching skill is 0.
i draw a lot of parallels between this and the coaching search....and the "10 years of experience needed" that i always here as well in the job market. I'm willing to bet 90% of professions follow exactly like teaching...experience is largely complete bullshit...you are you who are whether you 60 or 25. if you suck at math at 25, you will suck at math at 60. Sark sucks now and he's going to suck in 20 years.
I'll eventually post it here, but i did an analysis of the past 40 years of pac10 coaches. Basically, with sarks record where its at now, the chance of him ever winning 10+ games is about 8%. That is EVER winning 10 games. Meanwhile the chance of a random coach winning 10+ in their FIRST season is about 8%. Of course woodward probably has a art history major working for him as his data analyst so i'm confident woodward will go with his "gut" and we'll be stuck with 7/8 win season for the next 5 years
This type of premium info is why I pay $12.99 a month here. Good study!
Comments
Hope this site really takes off, and derek seems like a straight forward, don't mess with success type guy..which is what a simple business like msg boards need..someone who isn't constanly tinkering to fuel their own ego like Kim. Dawgman is only successful because they had the "first mover advantage" which normally is pretty hard to fuck up. Kim is doing his best to ruin an indistructable business.
i'm reminded of a great warren buffett quote about coca cola: ""I try and buy wonderful businesses that an idiot can run, because someday one probably will."
dawgman is a great business, and Kim is that idiot. We'll see if it survives