Gallardo had a mid 3 ERA pitching in the NATIONAL LEAGUE in a division with a few teams last year that couldn't hit their way out of a wet paper bag. He had an ERA over 4 in 2013. I would somewhat surprised if he kept his ERA under 4 in Texas. He could easily find himself giving up 25-30 HRs pitching in Arlington. He's no longer the guy that strikes out a guy per inning (which isn't going to be helped by facing a DH instead of a pitcher) and you could very easily point to his abnormally lower walk rate last year as the reason for his mid 3 ERA as anything else. His batting average against has been .261 each of the last 2 years .. wouldn't shock me if it goes up into the .265 to .270 range this year. Just don't see it with him.
I completely disagree about the floor for the Mariners. The worst case scenario for them is IF they have significant injuries in the rotation. They have 6 MLB caliber starters right now. I think they need to find 1 more between now and the start of the season. They will increase their rotation by the trade deadline (most likely in a package that moves Walker and one of their high end minor league OFs). Regardless of what Cruz does this year, it will be a massive upgrade compared to what they got at the DH spot last year. It will be next to impossible for them to get worse production from the SS spot. If Zunino improves at all, there's a 3rd offensive spot where you'll get improvement. The Smith/Ruggiano platoon will be far more productive than what the Mariners produced last year. I haven't even touched on getting anywhere close to historical production from Austin Jackson (who I do think that there's reason to be concerned about him going forward) or if Ackley can take the next step like he showed in the 2nd half of the season. Seager is Seager. Cano is Cano. LoMo could be about to hit his prime. The pen will still be very good even if it takes a slight step back. 22 games were started last year by a shit sandwich of starters (and that's not counting in the pen games). .500 would probably be the floor for them in my mind. They are one of the more well built teams from top to bottom that I see in baseball at the moment and a team that I'd say is a 90+ win team. Remember, I said that they'd be 85+ last year. If everything breaks right for this team, I could see them in the 95-100 range.
Gallardo had a mid 3 ERA pitching in the NATIONAL LEAGUE in a division with a few teams last year that couldn't hit their way out of a wet paper bag. He had an ERA over 4 in 2013. I would somewhat surprised if he kept his ERA under 4 in Texas. He could easily find himself giving up 25-30 HRs pitching in Arlington. He's no longer the guy that strikes out a guy per inning (which isn't going to be helped by facing a DH instead of a pitcher) and you could very easily point to his abnormally lower walk rate last year as the reason for his mid 3 ERA as anything else. His batting average against has been .261 each of the last 2 years .. wouldn't shock me if it goes up into the .265 to .270 range this year. Just don't see it with him.
I completely disagree about the floor for the Mariners. The worst case scenario for them is IF they have significant injuries in the rotation. They have 6 MLB caliber starters right now. I think they need to find 1 more between now and the start of the season. They will increase their rotation by the trade deadline (most likely in a package that moves Walker and one of their high end minor league OFs). Regardless of what Cruz does this year, it will be a massive upgrade compared to what they got at the DH spot last year. It will be next to impossible for them to get worse production from the SS spot. If Zunino improves at all, there's a 3rd offensive spot where you'll get improvement. The Smith/Ruggiano platoon will be far more productive than what the Mariners produced last year. I haven't even touched on getting anywhere close to historical production from Austin Jackson (who I do think that there's reason to be concerned about him going forward) or if Ackley can take the next step like he showed in the 2nd half of the season. Seager is Seager. Cano is Cano. LoMo could be about to hit his prime. The pen will still be very good even if it takes a slight step back. 22 games were started last year by a shit sandwich of starters (and that's not counting in the pen games). .500 would probably be the floor for them in my mind. They are one of the more well built teams from top to bottom that I see in baseball at the moment and a team that I'd say is a 90+ win team. Remember, I said that they'd be 85+ last year. If everything breaks right for this team, I could see them in the 95-100 range.
Don't tell RoadDawg, but regression to the mean can be a good thing.
The Rangers have a lot of ifs, but they might be decent. Their roster isn't much, if any worse than the M's. If Fielder can stay healthy and hit 30 HR's. If Choo and Andrus play at their normal level. If Holland and Darvish are healthy. If those things happen, they have a better team than the Mariners.
The Rangers are shells of what they used to be. Beltre and Fielder are nice ... although Beltre's aging a bit (so the decline that is talked about Cano applies as well for Beltre who is also older) and we really don't know how Fielder is going to respond to his neck surgery last year. Choo is about the only other offensive piece that I look at on their team and immediately think that he's above league average. Martin may end up being but he's average at best right now. Everybody else is some combination of young, unproven, or inconsistent.
Pitching wise, Darvish is obviously crazy talented but his inability to consistently pitch deep into games hurts their team IMO (can't underestimate how draining the summer months are for them - it's probably a 2-3 game difference in the standings). Holland's a solid #2. Gallardo is nothing special at this point in his career and I can't imagine that pitching in Texas is going to be helpful to him. I actually liked Colby Lewis before his injuries, but you can't have a guy in your rotation in the AL West penciled in to make 30 starts with an ERA of 5+ and win. And in all honesty, their pen isn't that good.
Vegas projects the Rangers for 77.5 wins in 2015 and I think that's a good number. They strike me as a just below .500 team with 85 wins probably being their high water mark. I think I'd take the Astros +3 in a H2H bet against the Rangers.
So you agree? If the Rangers win 80-85 games, they could very well be better than the Mariners. I mentioned they had a lot of ifs, and I agree that they could suck. The Mariners also could suck.
Gallardo had a 3.51 ERA pitching in Miller Park. He's a solid #3. Darvish-Holland-Gallardo-Perez is a solid rotation if healthy. They aren't afraid to spend money and will make moves if they are in it come July.
You had me until Gallardo, for reasons that Tequilla already layer out he's not going to put up anywhere close to the numbers he did last year.
I think the mariners have a relatively high floor, but you could give me reasons this year why any AL team can suck, I don't think the mariners are a totally sure thing. Outside of the Nationals and the Dodgers every team can suck this year
I'm sure that there will be a surprise or two, but I really do think that baseball is relatively defined going into the year this year moreso than it has been in recent years.
In the AL, I think the East is relatively wide open between Baltimore, Toronto, and Boston. Both the Yankees and Rays will be pretty bad. I don't think that either of the 3 teams that are going to contend for the division are that great - I think Baltimore was probably a little over their head this past year and will regress a bit (much like they did in 2013). The Central will be relatively wide open as I don't see a team in that division that will win 90 games but can see a path for all 5 teams to be .500 or better. I think this is the year that Detroit misses the playoffs. In the West, I'd be shocked if any team other than the Angels or Mariners made the playoffs.
In the NL, the Nationals would need to fall on their face to not win the East. The Marlins and Mets probably have a path to get to 85-90 wins. The Braves and Phillies are going to be horrible. The Cardinals and the Pirates are the class of the NL Central. The Cubs are probably a year away. Milwaukee and Cincy have the chance to outperform but could also blow up in a bad way. The Dodgers are obviously a favorite to make it to the playoffs but their slow starts could end up biting them at some point. The Padres are easily the most improved team in the game. The Giants lost a lot IMO and I'd be shocked if they got into the playoffs this year. DBacks and Rockies will both be bad.
I'm sure that there will be a surprise or two, but I really do think that baseball is relatively defined going into the year this year moreso than it has been in recent years.
In the AL, I think the East is relatively wide open between Baltimore, Toronto, and Boston. Both the Yankees and Rays will be pretty bad. I don't think that either of the 3 teams that are going to contend for the division are that great - I think Baltimore was probably a little over their head this past year and will regress a bit (much like they did in 2013). The Central will be relatively wide open as I don't see a team in that division that will win 90 games but can see a path for all 5 teams to be .500 or better. I think this is the year that Detroit misses the playoffs. In the West, I'd be shocked if any team other than the Angels or Mariners made the playoffs.
In the NL, the Nationals would need to fall on their face to not win the East. The Marlins and Mets probably have a path to get to 85-90 wins. The Braves and Phillies are going to be horrible. The Cardinals and the Pirates are the class of the NL Central. The Cubs are probably a year away. Milwaukee and Cincy have the chance to outperform but could also blow up in a bad way. The Dodgers are obviously a favorite to make it to the playoffs but their slow starts could end up biting them at some point. The Padres are easily the most improved team in the game. The Giants lost a lot IMO and I'd be shocked if they got into the playoffs this year. DBacks and Rockies will both be bad.
The east is intriguing. You could make an argument for every team to be good or sub 500
Boston's offense is gonna be really good. Pedroia most likely bounces back, Ortiz, Napoli, and Hanley is a really good middle of the order. If they can get something from Castillo, Bogaerts, and Betts they have a shot to be as good an offense as the team that won the WS 2 years ago. On the other hand their pitching is really sketchy. Porcello is good but not an ace, probably a below average 2, Wade Miley was great 3 years ago, but struggled last year and now is moving to the AL. And then the bottom 3 is a total house of cards.
Toronto's middle of the order is the best in baseball. Martin, Encarnacion, Bautista, and Donaldson. On the other hand unless Saunders can give them a full season their bottom of the order could be the worst in baseball. And their starting pitching is pedestrian.
The Yankees still have talent. Tanaka, Pineda, Tex, Ellsbury, Gardner, McCann, Headley, Betances. They just have to stay healthy, which I doubt they will.
The orioles have who I believe to be the best manager in baseball and some pieces that if used correctly can succeed in a big way. Wieters is back, I don't expect 50 HR Davis, but he won't be as bad as he was last year, it sounds like Machado is healthy, Hardy is solid. Jones is great. Pearce, De Aza, and young if used properly can be successful. And the bullpen is great. I wouldn't count them out, but they needed a SP. Maybe Bundy can finally put it together, but I doubt it.
The rays are intriguing to me. I kind of like their pitching with Smyly, Odorizzi, Cobb, Archer and Moore (if healthy). And the offense has some nice pieces. But they are probably counting on too many young guys to be successful.
Boston is probably the best in that division.
I think the central will come down to the tigers, and the indians. The royals over preformed last year and did nothing except add a bunch of mediocre players this offseason. The twins suck. The white sox will be better but they still have a lot of holes (relying on John Danks and hector noesi as your opening day #4 and #5) and the bullpen despite the addition of Robertson is still a big question mark. Gun to my head I think the Indians win that division and the tigers get a WC.
I think the west is a 2 horse race between the mariners and angels, one will win the division and the other will get a wc. The Astros are still bad, the rangers need a lot to go right for them to be successful, and the A's outside of ike Davis have no power, and their pitching isn't great either.
In the NL I think the dodgers and nationals are near locks to win their respective divisions. It's highly likely the pirates and cardinals both get playoff spots. The only questions imo is who between those two teams wins the central and who gets the 2nd WC spot, might be the mets.
Comments
I completely disagree about the floor for the Mariners. The worst case scenario for them is IF they have significant injuries in the rotation. They have 6 MLB caliber starters right now. I think they need to find 1 more between now and the start of the season. They will increase their rotation by the trade deadline (most likely in a package that moves Walker and one of their high end minor league OFs). Regardless of what Cruz does this year, it will be a massive upgrade compared to what they got at the DH spot last year. It will be next to impossible for them to get worse production from the SS spot. If Zunino improves at all, there's a 3rd offensive spot where you'll get improvement. The Smith/Ruggiano platoon will be far more productive than what the Mariners produced last year. I haven't even touched on getting anywhere close to historical production from Austin Jackson (who I do think that there's reason to be concerned about him going forward) or if Ackley can take the next step like he showed in the 2nd half of the season. Seager is Seager. Cano is Cano. LoMo could be about to hit his prime. The pen will still be very good even if it takes a slight step back. 22 games were started last year by a shit sandwich of starters (and that's not counting in the pen games). .500 would probably be the floor for them in my mind. They are one of the more well built teams from top to bottom that I see in baseball at the moment and a team that I'd say is a 90+ win team. Remember, I said that they'd be 85+ last year. If everything breaks right for this team, I could see them in the 95-100 range.
Outside of the Nationals and the Dodgers every team can suck this year
In the AL, I think the East is relatively wide open between Baltimore, Toronto, and Boston. Both the Yankees and Rays will be pretty bad. I don't think that either of the 3 teams that are going to contend for the division are that great - I think Baltimore was probably a little over their head this past year and will regress a bit (much like they did in 2013). The Central will be relatively wide open as I don't see a team in that division that will win 90 games but can see a path for all 5 teams to be .500 or better. I think this is the year that Detroit misses the playoffs. In the West, I'd be shocked if any team other than the Angels or Mariners made the playoffs.
In the NL, the Nationals would need to fall on their face to not win the East. The Marlins and Mets probably have a path to get to 85-90 wins. The Braves and Phillies are going to be horrible. The Cardinals and the Pirates are the class of the NL Central. The Cubs are probably a year away. Milwaukee and Cincy have the chance to outperform but could also blow up in a bad way. The Dodgers are obviously a favorite to make it to the playoffs but their slow starts could end up biting them at some point. The Padres are easily the most improved team in the game. The Giants lost a lot IMO and I'd be shocked if they got into the playoffs this year. DBacks and Rockies will both be bad.
You could make an argument for every team to be good or sub 500
Boston's offense is gonna be really good. Pedroia most likely bounces back, Ortiz, Napoli, and Hanley is a really good middle of the order. If they can get something from Castillo, Bogaerts, and Betts they have a shot to be as good an offense as the team that won the WS 2 years ago.
On the other hand their pitching is really sketchy. Porcello is good but not an ace, probably a below average 2, Wade Miley was great 3 years ago, but struggled last year and now is moving to the AL. And then the bottom 3 is a total house of cards.
Toronto's middle of the order is the best in baseball. Martin, Encarnacion, Bautista, and Donaldson.
On the other hand unless Saunders can give them a full season their bottom of the order could be the worst in baseball. And their starting pitching is pedestrian.
The Yankees still have talent. Tanaka, Pineda, Tex, Ellsbury, Gardner, McCann, Headley, Betances. They just have to stay healthy, which I doubt they will.
The orioles have who I believe to be the best manager in baseball and some pieces that if used correctly can succeed in a big way. Wieters is back, I don't expect 50 HR Davis, but he won't be as bad as he was last year, it sounds like Machado is healthy, Hardy is solid. Jones is great. Pearce, De Aza, and young if used properly can be successful. And the bullpen is great.
I wouldn't count them out, but they needed a SP. Maybe Bundy can finally put it together, but I doubt it.
The rays are intriguing to me. I kind of like their pitching with Smyly, Odorizzi, Cobb, Archer and Moore (if healthy). And the offense has some nice pieces. But they are probably counting on too many young guys to be successful.
Boston is probably the best in that division.
I think the central will come down to the tigers, and the indians. The royals over preformed last year and did nothing except add a bunch of mediocre players this offseason. The twins suck. The white sox will be better but they still have a lot of holes (relying on John Danks and hector noesi as your opening day #4 and #5) and the bullpen despite the addition of Robertson is still a big question mark.
Gun to my head I think the Indians win that division and the tigers get a WC.
I think the west is a 2 horse race between the mariners and angels, one will win the division and the other will get a wc. The Astros are still bad, the rangers need a lot to go right for them to be successful, and the A's outside of ike Davis have no power, and their pitching isn't great either.
In the NL I think the dodgers and nationals are near locks to win their respective divisions. It's highly likely the pirates and cardinals both get playoff spots.
The only questions imo is who between those two teams wins the central and who gets the 2nd WC spot, might be the mets.