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Pessimistic About Next Year And the Future (Tequilla Long)
RoadDawg55
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 30,123
I've been pretty high on Petersen, but the ASU game really put a damper on things for me. PGOS had a poll before the game that asked what a loss to ASU would mean. I said it was a crucial game to win to reach the 10 win goal, which was my barometer for a successful season, but that long term it didn't mean much. The good news is year 3 and 4 could be a lot better, but that's a long time to wait and a lot can change between now and then. This year has been another case of, "He will change." I have beaten woman syndrome. I still hope we can win out or win 4 of 5 to have something to feel good about, but I have doubts.
Unless the offense gets a lot better, we could have a losing record next year. Counting on Browning or another savior is probably a stretch. There haven't been many successful true freshman QB's and Carta-Samuels was the least regarded of the whole bunch at QB. He may be good, but he was a late addition to the class because there wasn't a QB committed and we needed one. Having an average Pac 12 offense would be a success after what we have seen this year. The OL isn't good, but losing 4 starters is generally not a good thing. We will be young on the OL and we all know that games are often won up front. Average on offense probably won't be good enough when you factor in the defense.
The whole DL graduates, 2 LB's, and Peters. The whole myth about only 4 good players on defense is bullshit. The 4 top guys aren't just good, they are borderline great. It pisses me off that Kikaha and Shelton won't be rewarded by playing on a great team. Those guys are championship caliber DL. Andrew Hudson had 10 tackles and 2 sacks on Saturday. He's not a star and he is undersized, but you don't have that kind of game against a team like ASU if you aren't a good player. He was good as a sophomore on a pretty decent defense. Timu is another guy that isn't a star, but he was a 4 year starter. He's two dropped pick 6's from having 4 defensive TD's like Shaq, and possibly being mentioned with the other 4 guys. Yeah, if my aunt had a dick she would be my uncle, and he deserved to be bashed for those game changing drops, but I still think he will be missed. Add Budda Baker and there is 7 good players on defense. The only guys that aren't very good are King/Walker and possibly Evan Hudson.
Anyways, we will be young and defense and there isn't any doubt we will be significantly worse. Losing four legitimate stars and two other good players is never good. The secondary is young and Baker is/will be a star. The LB's might be okay with Bierria, Littleton, and Feeney. However, the DL will likely be a disaster, even if the young guys are good. They are all either young or unproven. Weak OL and DL's mean equal bad teams. Both units will probably need at least a year, probably two until they are above average. It's not like the secondary or RB where you can plug in a young guy and see rapid development. Most young lineman lack strength and their technique often sucks because in high school they were way bigger and stronger than everyone else.
I feel like this was the year to win 10+, get momentum for the program and start the Petersen era off with a bang. A losing record or even a 7 or 8 win season next year will sap most of the remaining excitement out of the program. Not to mention TBS. Winning means better recruiting. Recruits want to win and play for championship caliber programs. We have been shitty or average for so long that nobody wants to dig a little deeper. Fuck perspective.
Unless the offense gets a lot better, we could have a losing record next year. Counting on Browning or another savior is probably a stretch. There haven't been many successful true freshman QB's and Carta-Samuels was the least regarded of the whole bunch at QB. He may be good, but he was a late addition to the class because there wasn't a QB committed and we needed one. Having an average Pac 12 offense would be a success after what we have seen this year. The OL isn't good, but losing 4 starters is generally not a good thing. We will be young on the OL and we all know that games are often won up front. Average on offense probably won't be good enough when you factor in the defense.
The whole DL graduates, 2 LB's, and Peters. The whole myth about only 4 good players on defense is bullshit. The 4 top guys aren't just good, they are borderline great. It pisses me off that Kikaha and Shelton won't be rewarded by playing on a great team. Those guys are championship caliber DL. Andrew Hudson had 10 tackles and 2 sacks on Saturday. He's not a star and he is undersized, but you don't have that kind of game against a team like ASU if you aren't a good player. He was good as a sophomore on a pretty decent defense. Timu is another guy that isn't a star, but he was a 4 year starter. He's two dropped pick 6's from having 4 defensive TD's like Shaq, and possibly being mentioned with the other 4 guys. Yeah, if my aunt had a dick she would be my uncle, and he deserved to be bashed for those game changing drops, but I still think he will be missed. Add Budda Baker and there is 7 good players on defense. The only guys that aren't very good are King/Walker and possibly Evan Hudson.
Anyways, we will be young and defense and there isn't any doubt we will be significantly worse. Losing four legitimate stars and two other good players is never good. The secondary is young and Baker is/will be a star. The LB's might be okay with Bierria, Littleton, and Feeney. However, the DL will likely be a disaster, even if the young guys are good. They are all either young or unproven. Weak OL and DL's mean equal bad teams. Both units will probably need at least a year, probably two until they are above average. It's not like the secondary or RB where you can plug in a young guy and see rapid development. Most young lineman lack strength and their technique often sucks because in high school they were way bigger and stronger than everyone else.
I feel like this was the year to win 10+, get momentum for the program and start the Petersen era off with a bang. A losing record or even a 7 or 8 win season next year will sap most of the remaining excitement out of the program. Not to mention TBS. Winning means better recruiting. Recruits want to win and play for championship caliber programs. We have been shitty or average for so long that nobody wants to dig a little deeper. Fuck perspective.
Comments
Re 2015 QBs: KJ was Pete's KG™ and all he'll know is Pete's system. I don't think that can be completely discounted.
Re DL: You don't just replace Shelton. However, the overall talent might be close to equal. The defense should be solid if not great.
Defense was great and even without Shaq. Both Hudsons (but esp Andrew) stepped up their game. It is a shame that the defense with 4 All Americans can't play on a team that will even contend for a title deep in the season. Its a fucking shame with the top line talent this team has had the past two years that it won't even touch 10 wins once.
All opinions and predictions aside, its a 5-3 team that will be favored in 3 more games plus 4 if you count a shitty bowl game. Win the games you should and beat UA or UCLA and its 9-4 going into a bowl. And by the way UCLA's OL is terrible and UCLA is worse than ASU & Stanford.
Next year will be a major rebuilding year but I don't think the defense will be bad. The secondary will be better for sure. Shaq & Timu are losses at LB but there are young highly recruited guys with one or two years of experience who can step in and improve as the season goes on. Maybe Bierria and Victor will emerge and Littleton has experience. The crop of young DL's (Qualls, Mathis, McGary, Vea, Dissly, Johnson, Gaines) is the best we've had in 25 years. I don't see why the defense can't progress the way ASU's has this season.
The big key will major improvement on offense. The OL will be worse but you get back Charles, Tufunga and Shelton…basically 3 starters. If you get a 6th year out of Tanigawa or Riva, thats a bonus. Brostek after a year of RS'ing could be a quality starter. Not a total dumpster fire.
There will be a lot of questions but there will be a chance for Petersen to show his player development. Look I'd like to go 10-4 so Pete gets free pub…most wins in 13 years, blah blah blah. But I doubt 10-4 is what bumps up our recruiting or excitement. Pete now has the next 1.5 seasons to prove he can develop players and position for a real run in year 3. And it needs to start ASAFP with the offense.
Couldn't resist
This season is a mess and the focus of our derision should be solely focused on Sark. I'm giving Peterman a pass for this entire season unless he completely shits the bed the second half. Mid-point next year he will start being held accountable for 1A)Current roster development 1B)Players he has brought in. The most damning fact to me regarding Sark is that he only once started a QB he brought into the program and that was due to injury.
Until then we are stuck is LIFPO mode and its going to be a shitty season plus. The rosy glow is off Peterman but putting myself back into my December 2013 frame of mind, I still don't think there was a better selection that could have been made.
The sooner the staff can figure out the QB position, the better. For the psyche too.
I'm not ready to steal a Cessna at Boeing Field and fly it into Rainier....at least not yet.
Lifpo
I can't see the defense being nearly as good. The secondary could be improved overall, but we're losing some fucking studs in our front seven.
Haven't looked at our schedule for next season, so don't know how easy our preseason is, but I don't think a losing season should be tolerated, expected, or hold as a realistic proclamation - rebuilding year or not.
The offense can only be better next year. Our offensive linemen currently can't get much worse (or can they?), so don't really give a flying fuck how many starts we are losing from the like of fat James can't-move my-feet-because-I'm-taking-a-shit Atoe.
Sadly, I can't say either way it will be interesting, because mediocrity seems like a certain forecast next year.
FUCK.
I agree with Chest about the DL next year, I think we have all forgotten what players who give a fuck look like, even if they are redshirt freshman. Guys like Budda, Pettis, Jones, and even Dissly are showing you now that the guys coming in are not a bunch of fucking skirts. The guys that are buying in are playing at the highest levels of their careers or quickly becoming serviceable players. Let's not forget that.
Here is what I said about ASU.
"I've watched all the UW games. 4 of them in person.
Late last night I watched oregon. with the benefit of 24 hours of perspective and a fast forward button.
If you think don't think UW has serious issues in several areas, I ask, do you watch UW games.
It's possible UW beats asu. That's why they play. Petersen could figure some stuff out. But they need to make some changes to win."