Defensive Stop Rates

TheHB

Not great, but not as poor as many probably think. Defensive stop rate is “the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. This simple metric can offer a more accurate reflection of a defense’s effectiveness in today’s faster-tempo college football than yards per game or points per game.”

https://theathletic.com/5063581/2023/11/14/college-football-stop-rate-defense-rankings-usc/

RaceBannon

Perception trumps reality. Something I have noticed since my nerves were shot and I started going Jerry West

When watching live with everything on the line it really does seem like Opponent is 22 out of 23 on third down

In fact it was Petersen versus Shaw that killed me

PostGameOrangeSlices

RaceBannon said:

Perception trumps reality. Something I have noticed since my nerves were shot and I started going Jerry West

When watching live with everything on the line it really does seem like Opponent is 22 out of 23 on third down

In fact it was Petersen versus Shaw that killed me

This is a good point

Petersen and Kwat can't get off the field on 3rd down in the later 3rd and 4th quarters. How many times did we see Stanford and Oregon march down and burn up insane amounts of clock?

CFetters_Nacho_Lover

TheHB said:

Not great, but not as poor as many probably think. Defensive stop rate is “the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. This simple metric can offer a more accurate reflection of a defense’s effectiveness in today’s faster-tempo college football than yards per game or points per game.”

https://theathletic.com/5063581/2023/11/14/college-football-stop-rate-defense-rankings-usc/

I told Mrs Nacho at the beginning of the USC game that we? only needed 2 more stops than USC got and we did, 5 stops to 3.

EsophagealFeces

CFetters_Nacho_Lover said:

TheHB said:

Not great, but not as poor as many probably think. Defensive stop rate is “the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. This simple metric can offer a more accurate reflection of a defense’s effectiveness in today’s faster-tempo college football than yards per game or points per game.”

https://theathletic.com/5063581/2023/11/14/college-football-stop-rate-defense-rankings-usc/

I told Mrs Nacho at the beginning of the USC game that we? only needed 2 more stops than USC got and we did, 5 stops to 3.

That’s the reality with this offense, if the defense can get more stops than the other team, we win. Their ability to score touchdowns instead of field goals and score quickly at the end of halves makes us damn near impossible to beat if the defense wins the stop battle

FireCohen

This defense is insanely inconsistent, but they are consistent in making plays when they need to. The ASU game was exhibit A. They seemed to play the whole game on the field and did not give up too much and were able to score

MikeSeaver

“ This simple metric can offer a more accurate reflection of a defense’s effectiveness in today’s faster-tempo college football than yards per game or points per game.”

Yeah but almost all of those teams suck.

More nerds stealing money from jocks info.

TheHB

MikeSeaver said:

“ This simple metric can offer a more accurate reflection of a defense’s effectiveness in today’s faster-tempo college football than yards per game or points per game.”

Yeah but almost all of those teams suck.

More nerds stealing money from jocks info.

I tend to agree. Seems like you can find an analytic to support pretty much anything you want.

dirtysouwfdawg

TheHB said:

MikeSeaver said:

“ This simple metric can offer a more accurate reflection of a defense’s effectiveness in today’s faster-tempo college football than yards per game or points per game.”

Yeah but almost all of those teams suck.

More nerds stealing money from jocks info.

I tend to agree. Seems like you can find an analytic to support pretty much anything you want.

I can confirm. IRL I live and die by the ANALytics and you can always find a way to be #1 in something.

RaceBannon

Nothing beats having a 99% win probability until you don't

I mean if you have the lead in the 4th quarter you have a pretty good chance to win if you don't blow it - Ron Fairly

DerekJohnson

RaceBannon said:

Perception trumps reality. Something I have noticed since my nerves were shot and I started going Jerry West

When watching live with everything on the line it really does seem like Opponent is 22 out of 23 on third down

In fact it was Petersen versus Shaw that killed me

This sounds like a snippet from a group text between me, Woolley and Joey when we're kvetching about opposing third string QBs

DoogDawg

I think most would agree that our defense isn't bad, it's just not good. It's just average...and that isn't good enough.

We put up with it because we have an elite offense and are riding a 17 game win streak. The D also shows streaks of being good- but then has like 12 missed tackles on a simple bubble screen.

If our offense wasn't so good, our D would've lost us like four or five games this year alone and then we'd be wanting to tarmac the entire D staff.

I'm good going in a new direction on D in the off-season. The D staff isn't elite and will hold us back in future years.

ExtraChrisB

The good news is Oregon State’s defense isn’t good either. They force a lot more turnovers than we do, but if we can avoid those we should be fine. More concerned with their offense of fast midget receivers and bully running backs.

SkipBoyd

DoogDawg said:

I think most would agree that our defense isn't bad, it's just not good. It's just average...and that isn't good enough.

We put up with it because we have an elite offense and are riding a 17 game win streak. The D also shows streaks of being good- but then has like 12 missed tackles on a simple bubble screen.

If our offense wasn't so good, our D would've lost us like four or five games this year alone and then we'd be wanting to tarmac the entire D staff.

I'm good going in a new direction on D in the off-season. The D staff isn't elite and will hold us back in future years.

I'd say they are solidly below average. There is rarely any push on the pocket and when there is the ends are outrun; line backers are out of position and slow (watch how many times a back passes one of them and they reach one arm out like an injun trying to count coup); the defensive backfield shows some promise but most of the time they are out of position and couldn't tackle their own grandmothers (who are 32 years old, by the way) in a phone booth; and E. Jackson.

dnc

SkipBoyd said:

DoogDawg said:

I think most would agree that our defense isn't bad, it's just not good. It's just average...and that isn't good enough.

We put up with it because we have an elite offense and are riding a 17 game win streak. The D also shows streaks of being good- but then has like 12 missed tackles on a simple bubble screen.

If our offense wasn't so good, our D would've lost us like four or five games this year alone and then we'd be wanting to tarmac the entire D staff.

I'm good going in a new direction on D in the off-season. The D staff isn't elite and will hold us back in future years.

I'd say they are solidly below average. There is rarely any push on the pocket and when there is the ends are outrun; line backers are out of position and slow (watch how many times a back passes one of them and they reach one arm out like an injun trying to count coup); the defensive backfield shows some promise but most of the time they are out of position and couldn't tackle their own grandmothers (who are 32 years old, by the way) in a phone booth; and E. Jackson.

It's below average historically but not below average for 2023.

The game has changed, all of the rules favor the offense. Dominating defense isn't really a thing unless you're in the B1G where the offenses are stuck in 1985.

It *feels* like a below average defense because we(?)re old.

TheHB

dnc said:

SkipBoyd said:

DoogDawg said:

I think most would agree that our defense isn't bad, it's just not good. It's just average...and that isn't good enough.

We put up with it because we have an elite offense and are riding a 17 game win streak. The D also shows streaks of being good- but then has like 12 missed tackles on a simple bubble screen.

If our offense wasn't so good, our D would've lost us like four or five games this year alone and then we'd be wanting to tarmac the entire D staff.

I'm good going in a new direction on D in the off-season. The D staff isn't elite and will hold us back in future years.

I'd say they are solidly below average. There is rarely any push on the pocket and when there is the ends are outrun; line backers are out of position and slow (watch how many times a back passes one of them and they reach one arm out like an injun trying to count coup); the defensive backfield shows some promise but most of the time they are out of position and couldn't tackle their own grandmothers (who are 32 years old, by the way) in a phone booth; and E. Jackson.

It's below average historically but not below average for 2023.

The game has changed, all of the rules favor the offense. Dominating defense isn't really a thing unless you're in the B1G where the offenses are stuck in 1985.

It *feels* like a below average defense because we(?)re old.

Yep. Which is why the top four teams in this particular metric are all B1G teams.

Canadawg

If they could just look less pathetic tackling the ball carrier 3-6 times a game I would be relatively ok with where the defence is at

Kingdome_Urinals

Defense is pretty bad with flashes of being good. Getting gashed by Utah at home has no silver lining.

The best you can say about them is that they actually do adjust and play hard to the end. This is a reflection of the head coach.

The most brutal aspect of the defense is the lack of sideline to sideline speed amongst the linebackers.

Canadawg

Having Tuli back will solve some interior issues. Healthiest the team has been since Michigan State?

DawgDaze71

Canadawg said:

Having Tuli back will solve some interior issues. Healthiest the team has been since Michigan State?

I'd say so if KamFabs ankle finally stops bothering him. Even if we don't put it all together like us fans want we can still beat Oregon State. We really want a statement game, 4th quarter where the game really isn't in question.

I think we are comfortable knowing we could probably beat Washington State by just pulverizing them with DJ and crew on the ground.

chuck

Kingdome_Urinals said:

Defense is pretty bad with flashes of being good. Getting gashed by Utah at home has no silver lining.

The best you can say about them is that they actually do adjust and play hard to the end. This is a reflection of the head coach.

The most brutal aspect of the defense is the lack of sideline to sideline speed amongst the linebackers.

Dingdong looked surprisingly fast running that pick (almost 6) down the sideline. I was impressed right up to where he crossed the 2 yard line.

The linebackers are just like the safeties in terms of pursuit angles...they don't use or understand them somehow...and it makes them look slow as they wave or dive at the feet of ball carriers blowing by them.

@backthepack says they're good so there must be some metrics supporting that, but they don't pass the eye test for me. Bruener makes some good hits, but he doesn't always show up. Tupetala and Ulo take too many bad angles and let guys get past them too often.