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Is DeBoer a More PC Version of Sark?
Tequilla
Member Posts: 19,825
The question that has been going through my head since the ASU loss is are we starting to see signs that KDB is more smoke and mirrors than we thought? And if so, how is KDB that different from what we saw during the Sark years ... particularly the first 3 years with the Nick Holt defensive years.
When I look back at the Sark years (including what Sark has done since then) what I continuously come back to is an offense that looks good but seemingly falls apart in key instances (notably in the red zone) with a team as a whole that finds ways to make losing plays instead of winning ones.
We're now halfway through Year 1 of KDB and the narrative surrounding him is that he's an offensive genius ... that logic seemingly is unchallenged by the masses. We're seeing signs of defense that is becoming increasingly worrisome (it really started in the 2nd half against Michigan St but it was easy to sweep that aside as it being garbage time) ... the parallels back to the early Sark years are becoming a bit eerie in that regards.
I wanted to test whether or not KDB is the offensive genius that we're all hearing about ... particularly as the Doogs are getting louder and louder about who wouldn't want to come play in this offense. So this week I've updated the total and rate metrics that I track with a specific emphasis on stripping out the G5 and FCS games that have a tendency to skew results.
How is the UW offense stacking up this season at the halfway point (all P5 Games (Conf Rank) / P12 Games (Conf Rank) with Conference Leader / Last Year's P12 Numbers below each entry:
Rushing Offense: 3.82 (8), Oregon 6.42 / 4.18 (8), Oregon 7.59
2021: 3.18 (11), Utah 1st at 5.79
Yards per Pass Attempt: 7.64 (6), UCLA 10.35 / 6.99 (11), UCLA 10.35
2021: 6.32 (11), Utah 1st at 8.03
Yards per Completion: 12.17 (8), UCLA 13.75 / 10.99 (11), UCLA 13.75
2021: 10.43 (11), Oregon St 1st at 12.90
Yards per Offensive Play: 6.08 (7), UCLA 7.73 / 5.90 (8), Oregon 7.89
2021: 4.78 (11); Utah 1st at 6.67
Points per Game: 37.3 (2), UCLA 42.3 / 36.7 (3), Oregon 46.0
2021: 21.0 (9), Utah 1st at 37.2
What are the key takeaways here:
I think it's definitely prudent to say that every coach should be allowed time to come in and put his stamp on the program to the extent that they earn the trust to do so.
With Sark, you saw enough recruiting coming into the program that there was reason to believe that things could change with the right tweaks. Hiring Wilcox actually turned around the defense prior to the offense then underperforming. But big picture, there was definitely a lot of talent that remained on the roster that eventually Pete was able to help turn the corner early in his tenure.
With KDB, I think the big worry that you have to have is where is recruiting going? With the updated 247 rankings coming out today, UW's current class ranks at 27. The high end of the class speaks ok with 4 4-stars with 2 top 300 players. But when you look under the hood there are some concerns because when you drop the threshold to top 500 players it's only 6 of the 19 players in the class at this point. 7 of the 19 players are not ranked within the top 1000 players ... those are developmental prospects that typically have decent sized miss rates (James Atoe anybody?). If we fast forward to the 2 verbals currently in the 2024 class, both are ranked outside the top 500.
Why does the above matter? If your goal is to improve (which particularly on the defensive side of the ball it's not there), then you have to level up your talent. If you aren't leveling up your talent through HS recruiting then the only other paths available is to develop those on your rosters at a high rate and/or leverage the transfer portal. Big picture, I think we'll find that leveraging the portal is a losing strategy for a place like Washington because they will not be getting the difference makers that enter the portal. What they'll be getting are guys like Cam Bright that are solid players but not really difference makers. The transfers like Penix (who is a unique case) is the exception to the rule.
It's probably too early to say that coaches need to be fired. But it's also not too early to highlight that there are talent gaps on the roster and it is on the coaches to figure out how to upgrade that talent. What we're seeing in recruiting likely isn't good enough (at least in the short term). I firmly believe that you have about 12 months from the time you take a job to sell your vision without having too much emphasis put on your results at your new school. At some point though that honeymoon ends and you start to become your record and that hangs with you (good or bad) with your future recruiting. There are some AD/Upper Campus limitations on recruiting (that they are quick to say aren't there but we all know there is) ... but it's probably not holding back KDB as much as it would others.
These next 6 games for KDB are pretty critical in highlighting what type of coach he can be here. There are 3 fairly winnable games (Arizona, Cal, and Colorado) ... get those 3 only and you get yourself to 7-win Sark territory. Get 1 or more of the Oregon St, Oregon, or Washington St group and you hit the 8+ range that shows that there's some momentum to go into the offseason with. Drop a game you shouldn't and get nothing at or above your weight class and you're looking at 6 wins (or less) and all of the shine vanishes quickly.
How quickly the narratives can change ...
When I look back at the Sark years (including what Sark has done since then) what I continuously come back to is an offense that looks good but seemingly falls apart in key instances (notably in the red zone) with a team as a whole that finds ways to make losing plays instead of winning ones.
We're now halfway through Year 1 of KDB and the narrative surrounding him is that he's an offensive genius ... that logic seemingly is unchallenged by the masses. We're seeing signs of defense that is becoming increasingly worrisome (it really started in the 2nd half against Michigan St but it was easy to sweep that aside as it being garbage time) ... the parallels back to the early Sark years are becoming a bit eerie in that regards.
I wanted to test whether or not KDB is the offensive genius that we're all hearing about ... particularly as the Doogs are getting louder and louder about who wouldn't want to come play in this offense. So this week I've updated the total and rate metrics that I track with a specific emphasis on stripping out the G5 and FCS games that have a tendency to skew results.
How is the UW offense stacking up this season at the halfway point (all P5 Games (Conf Rank) / P12 Games (Conf Rank) with Conference Leader / Last Year's P12 Numbers below each entry:
Rushing Offense: 3.82 (8), Oregon 6.42 / 4.18 (8), Oregon 7.59
2021: 3.18 (11), Utah 1st at 5.79
Yards per Pass Attempt: 7.64 (6), UCLA 10.35 / 6.99 (11), UCLA 10.35
2021: 6.32 (11), Utah 1st at 8.03
Yards per Completion: 12.17 (8), UCLA 13.75 / 10.99 (11), UCLA 13.75
2021: 10.43 (11), Oregon St 1st at 12.90
Yards per Offensive Play: 6.08 (7), UCLA 7.73 / 5.90 (8), Oregon 7.89
2021: 4.78 (11); Utah 1st at 6.67
Points per Game: 37.3 (2), UCLA 42.3 / 36.7 (3), Oregon 46.0
2021: 21.0 (9), Utah 1st at 37.2
What are the key takeaways here:
- UW is definitely more efficient running the ball this year (still not even above average at it though; particularly when considering the relative lack of sacks impacting) and definitely in the passing game through an uptick in completion percentage (60% to 63% so far this year)
- Explosiveness is perhaps not as pronounced as we'd like to believe given relative ranks in 2021 and so far in 2022; UW's ability to take advantage of Michigan St's secondary is stark in the numbers; conference opponents are clearly adjusting as more film of DeBoer with Washington comes available
- Yards per play is really seeing an increase more due to a change in approach moving from more of a balanced 50/50 offense to a much more pronounced passing lean (60% passing so far)
- Numbers are up across the board so far this year in the conference which muddies the true impact of how much of the upticks that we're seeing under KDB are driven by him versus driven by trends within the conference
- Despite some conflicting rate numbers, end result is that the team is scoring at a consistently high level and that's a testament to their ability to execute consistently which KDB deserves credit for (it's about as anti-Sark as you can get)
I think it's definitely prudent to say that every coach should be allowed time to come in and put his stamp on the program to the extent that they earn the trust to do so.
With Sark, you saw enough recruiting coming into the program that there was reason to believe that things could change with the right tweaks. Hiring Wilcox actually turned around the defense prior to the offense then underperforming. But big picture, there was definitely a lot of talent that remained on the roster that eventually Pete was able to help turn the corner early in his tenure.
With KDB, I think the big worry that you have to have is where is recruiting going? With the updated 247 rankings coming out today, UW's current class ranks at 27. The high end of the class speaks ok with 4 4-stars with 2 top 300 players. But when you look under the hood there are some concerns because when you drop the threshold to top 500 players it's only 6 of the 19 players in the class at this point. 7 of the 19 players are not ranked within the top 1000 players ... those are developmental prospects that typically have decent sized miss rates (James Atoe anybody?). If we fast forward to the 2 verbals currently in the 2024 class, both are ranked outside the top 500.
Why does the above matter? If your goal is to improve (which particularly on the defensive side of the ball it's not there), then you have to level up your talent. If you aren't leveling up your talent through HS recruiting then the only other paths available is to develop those on your rosters at a high rate and/or leverage the transfer portal. Big picture, I think we'll find that leveraging the portal is a losing strategy for a place like Washington because they will not be getting the difference makers that enter the portal. What they'll be getting are guys like Cam Bright that are solid players but not really difference makers. The transfers like Penix (who is a unique case) is the exception to the rule.
It's probably too early to say that coaches need to be fired. But it's also not too early to highlight that there are talent gaps on the roster and it is on the coaches to figure out how to upgrade that talent. What we're seeing in recruiting likely isn't good enough (at least in the short term). I firmly believe that you have about 12 months from the time you take a job to sell your vision without having too much emphasis put on your results at your new school. At some point though that honeymoon ends and you start to become your record and that hangs with you (good or bad) with your future recruiting. There are some AD/Upper Campus limitations on recruiting (that they are quick to say aren't there but we all know there is) ... but it's probably not holding back KDB as much as it would others.
These next 6 games for KDB are pretty critical in highlighting what type of coach he can be here. There are 3 fairly winnable games (Arizona, Cal, and Colorado) ... get those 3 only and you get yourself to 7-win Sark territory. Get 1 or more of the Oregon St, Oregon, or Washington St group and you hit the 8+ range that shows that there's some momentum to go into the offseason with. Drop a game you shouldn't and get nothing at or above your weight class and you're looking at 6 wins (or less) and all of the shine vanishes quickly.
How quickly the narratives can change ...
Comments
These last 2 games are baffling. This isn’t strictly “our guys suck” issue. This is scheme and a complete lack of defensive understanding. This should have shown up in earlier games but everything looked fine from that perspective
Are they studying film…..at all? I hope not because it sure doesn’t look like they are.
Sark got absolutely plungered in Tempe from the first snap.
Sark very likely started with a worse overall talent base than KDB
The parallels are offensive hype out of control (the fawning isn't backed up by the stats at this point) and some hideous defense
It's way too early to say that KDB is Sark so don't twist ...
But there are some leading indicators out there that I'd suggest are worth monitoring ... particularly as we finish out this year
And finished 4-8.
If you think KDB is like Sark you're a fucking retard. Case closed. End of discussion.
Derek worrying about him being Bellotti is a reasonable take. KDB being sark is fucking stupid. Sark rode coattails before he got to UW. Retard fucks.
Not a bad life actually.
We just played shitty teams. Hth.
Some of us noticed and said it would cost games if it wasn't cleaned up.
Take out the Sark reference which distracted from the point and there are good points
From a person standpoint there is no comparison
Football wise … LIPO
If there was, I’d love to see a link to the posts saying that
We all noticed fundamental issues. That wasn’t once discussed in my original post.
Deboner=Sark?
DeBoner: No excuses. No house money. No moral victories. Have it from good authority he arrives earlier to work and stays later than Sark, Peterman, and Lake. It's year 1.
Go look at any HOF, or "elite" Power-5 college coach and see what they did year 1. Except for Switzer and Osborne who both inherited top teams, most struggled or were mediocre
Rockne: 3-1-2
Woody Hayes: 4-3-1
Bear Bryant: Kentucky (7-3) Texas AM (1-9) BAMA (5-4-1)
Switzer: 10-0-1 (inherited 11-1 team)
James: Kent State (3-8) UW (6-5; Year 2: 5-6)
Osborne: 9-2-1 (inherited 9-2 #5 ranked team)
Saban: Mich State (6-5-1) LSU (8-4) Bama (2-6)
Carroll: 6-6
Urban: 9-3
Swinney: 4-3
NIL remains an issue. QB Quinn Ewers has already received $3.2M, cash. $1.4M from Ohio State and a $1.8M deal from Texas. Meanwhile Pennix, who two weeks ago was considered a Heisman candidate received ~$2,000 for a t-shirt deal and scored $350 ($175 per) for two KJR interviews.
Yeah, sure excuses and big dick coaches can sell anything. We? are so far away from competitive when it comes to current blue-chip recruiting. It used to be $50,0000-$100,000, maybe $250k for the elite recruit. Not anymore.
Recruiting doesn't matter until it does. We didn't sign an inside linebacker for three years. In Jimmy's last recruiting class, DBU gave a second string high school corner a scholarship because stars didn't matter and we were elite. Meanwhile, former elite secondary coach Will Harris chose Clay Helton and Ga So. over offers from all Blue Bloods desperate for Will's elite recruiting and development.
Sark. Really?