Best Of

You know the margins are too big to cheat because they keep trying to kill him.

The fear is real. Biden had just over an 8 point national lead in 2020 and won key battle ground states by just over ten thousand votes, with around a 5% popular vote victory. Kamala's lead nationally right now is 1.8% on 538, so you have to assume the battle ground states are even more in Trump's favor. The lead will be too large to rig even if they desperately want to cheat. This is why many betting sites have Trump at nearly a -200 favorite. The betting site I use, because it lets me bet college games, has Trump as a -180 favorite, and it continues to inch upward. Even 538 (left leaning polling database) has trump winning 52/100 simulations. If 538 has him as a slight favorite, it's real bad for the left. My electoral prediction is Trump 312-226, with a popular vote margin of less than 1.5%

I think the Trump lead will be too high. You can do that with 40k-50k votes, but they'll need 100k-150k votes in 3-4 states to pull this off. Even Russia and Venezuela would have a hard time rigging some of these state leads without setting off extreme alarm bells. It would make the skepticism in 2020 look like a rounding error. Even the left wouldn't risk that.

This is who he is. He is authentic which is partly why he is so beloved

As I said 40 days or so ago, the serious polling data was showing a shift toward Trump and it is now to the point that the rat press can no longer ignore the obvious. The rat media's response? Double down on the hitler comparisons, which again is a clear sign of panic, not to mention a slap in the face of history and the holocaust victims.

I would be curious to know what everyone is feeling with a couple weeks to go. Me? I think it is going to be close and close does not bode well for Trump. We know from the past that democrats cheat and there aren't enough eyes to go around. In a fair fight I think the data and the trending show that Trump wins.

For those interested, here are some interesting tidbits that are in the polling data.

• Trump will gain a few % points with the black vote. Every little bit helps but there is not going to be a 20 point swing. Democrats have abused and tortured that demographic for hundreds of years and it will take time to break them of those chains to where they can walk free of the rat plantation.
• Vance is proving to be a very large plus. It clearly started with the VP debate. In an event like that where the rat media can't lie about the personality that is emanating from the television, JD hit it out of the park. Immediately after the debate his numbers went up over a 10 point increase and has steadily trended well. They call it a "carry over" when one appearance can pull attention to an individual on future appearances. His viewing audience has grown. Previous to the debate the rat press painted him as the second coming of the devil. Now they actively try to keep him off of their broadcasts all together.
• Vance's biggest selling point as far as polling data goes? Number 1? He would make a good President. Number 2? He provides a good balance for Trump. 3, he is more intelligent and knowledgeable than Headboard or The Tiananmen Liar. All three qualities are great for the campaign but Number 1 is like a home run in polling.
• Headboard is falling because she is not good at this. There are so many reasons the bloom is off the rose but number 1 is intelligence as a candidate. The data doesn't suggest she is stupid but people who are objective see a woman who is not good on her feet, weak on the issues and afraid to put forth details on any plan. Obviously this is no secret, she has dodged the media since the beginning. No 2 is a bit surprising, the data suggests that she didn't earn her position and evidently a lot of people resent that. Then there is a mix of issues like honesty, lack of moral, weakness on foreign affairs, lack of ability to handle foreign powers, decision making skills, etc. None of the aforementioned are nearly as big a hurt as points 1 & 2.
• The incredible liar from Minnesota has horrible numbers. I didn't spend any time on him because quite frankly, the campaign is hiding him too. Every time he opens his mouth we get a steady stream of communism spewing out and that hurts the campaign.

Elon is almost as smart as creepycoug, which is sad really given my alma mater and all that.

Viability is a tempting line to draw for the interested, but unsophisticated.

Viability changes with technology. Does anyone mean to suggest that we invent some whoozeywhatsit that will push the viability line back a month that it is on that basis that we draw the ever important line of personhood moral significance? I mean, we have to draw rando lines for all kinds of things, like drinking age, knowing full well it's just a spot we picked because we have to pick one.

But here, you're talking about whether something (err, someone) possesses the same moral properties (and related rights) that you and I have. That's a big line brother. We're going to leave it up to the Tech bros?

I don't fucking think so. I know a much better line: at conception. Once that happens, all bets are off and we are dealing with a person, whether that's today, 100 years from now and 100 years ago.

Don't like it? Keep it in your pants, and keep your legs crossed. Or use contraception. Either way,

Brilliant!