TSIO Episode #28: UW 2017 Recruiting Class Review

Let me save you three hours:


In looking through the comments for our last few podcasts, I've noticed that there have been requests and/or disappointments that we didn't talk or discuss this topic or that topic or whatever. As the podcast has been drifting towards 2 hours as it is (probably about 30 minutes longer than ideal) given the large number of topics/interest in the program, it's just impossible to get through everything.

While texting today about the latest developments at Cal today, I thought it'd be a good idea to put out a topic that quite honestly we likely won't get into on the pod anytime in the near future (if at all) but is interesting enough that I'm sure that @CokeGreaterThanPepsi, @Dennis_DeYoung and I will have very strong, and potentially very different opinions on. So on with the topic ... "Progams Exploiting Market Inefficiencies to Fast Track Competitiveness."




Both Cal and Oregon have made coaching changes this offseason and while you could argue that both of them have made reasonable, but not necessarily inspiring, head coaching hires, it's very difficult to argue against the fact that they are putting together high end assistant staffs.

One of the topics that we've collectively been very adamant about is how important recruiting is in building up the foundation of the program. Simply put, if you don't recruit at a high level, barring insane development levels, you've already lost on the field 2-3 years down the road.

Going back historically with Oregon about 10+ years ago, two areas where they outpaced the competition and it allowed it to really get a leg up in recruiting were tied to being one of the first programs to really embrace the arms race with respect to facilities and then the variety in their uniforms. As time has progressed, almost every program has upgraded their facilities and so many programs have different uniforms that those "advantages" for Oregon have fallen back.

Another prevalent theme that those that remember the Don James era and now are seeing similar with Chris Petersen, and then comparing that to what we see around the country with the elite level coaches like Saban, Meyer, etc. is that there are only a handful of those elite coaches in place. Make no mistake, when you have an elite level coach in place, while the assistants are important, the stability at the top of your program with consistent messaging, vision, and way that work is done is almost impossible to duplicate. The resume build that assistants get from being on your staff is tremendous which allows the HC to have the ability to get high end assistants on a fairly consistent basis. The vulnerability though is that the turnover in assistants can be high as those positions are stepping stones to bigger/better jobs.

What I see in what Cal and Oregon doing is that they looked at the market and their own situations and decided that since they will not be able to get an elite level HC now (or likely anytime in the future), that instead of wasting resources on an above average HC, they would go after HC candidates that may over time develop into that on the cheap while devoting the resources to securing as deep and talented of an assistant staff as they could get. The idea behind that is that the splashes made by pulling ace recruiters together will allow the staff to increase their recruiting ability and down the road that will increase their on field performance ... if everything plays out right then the HC develops during that period and by the time all the pieces come together you get magic.

On the surface, this isn't a terrible idea. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again ... and in the case of programs like Cal and Oregon, trying to operate in the same manner as the power schools in the PAC like USC or Washington operate is a recipe for falling in line behind them. The down side of this though is the part that nobody is talking about. Right now, it's a bunch of free pub and offseason natty talk because the staffs are great. There's no question that there will be recruiting upticks. The downside though is that the assistants that are being hired are being lured with more money and responsibility than what they could get from their existing elite schools for one reason or another. It's not so much that these coaches are in a position that they can't do the jobs that they are being hired to do, but more that they've made it extremely clear through their actions that their expectation is that they are using this new job to jump somewhere else as soon as possible. And that's the problem ...

The problem with what Cal and Oregon are doing is that 2-4 years down the line, the balance of the assistant staffs that they are hiring today will be looking at either taking HC jobs elsewhere or using the positions that they have to leverage lateral moves to bigger programs with more established HC and more $$$ to finish out their resumes. These schools will perpetually be in a position where they are turning over staffs with one massive problem ... they are ultimately operating with a HC that will fall behind those of the national elite unless they get extremely lucky with their hire and that HC turns into a national elite ... at which point he likely gets plucked away anyway. Some of that is just what it is anyway ... but if the HC is what the HC is, to retain the HC the resources start to get shifted away from the assistants and towards the HC ... if the $$$ isn't there for the assistants then the recruiting base starts to crumble which leads to results starting to crumble, etc.

All in all, what Cal and Oregon are doing right now is a house of cards play that while the in the short term is exploiting some existing market inefficiencies, as the bigger programs become victims of this, they will continue to build ways to protect themselves from this kind of behavior going forward just like they did in the arms races for facilities and destroying the multi-uniform cool factor. These schools may have won this round ... but ultimately, college football has long proven that if you have the right Head Coach in place, that's the school that will ultimately win.