Recession time

2001400ex · April 2016

It's clear Trump gets his economy news from Rush. The best part is, Trump doesn't even understand how the stock market is valued or how unemployment is calculated.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-prediction-massive-recession-puzzles-economists-000424650--business.html

In an interview with the Washington Post published on Saturday, the billionaire businessman said a combination of high unemployment and an overvalued stock market had set the stage for another economic slump. He put real unemployment above 20 percent.

PurpleJ · April 2016

He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.

sarktastic · April 2016

assisted living ROCKS!

2001400ex · April 2016

PurpleJ said:
He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.

You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).

Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.

Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?

PurpleJ · April 2016

Why are you making my point for me?

sarktastic · April 2016

Real consumer spending is in a downward trend... oops.

Fed sayz: stagflation is what the cool kids talk about now.

2001400ex · April 2016

PurpleJ said:
Why are you making my point for me?

Why do you ignore reality yet pretend to know what you are talking about?

2001400ex · April 2016

sarktastic said:
Real consumer spending is in a downward trend... oops.

Fed sayz: stagflation is what the cool kids talk about now.

The best part is, you clearly don't know what stagflation is.

PurpleJ · April 2016

The Democratic National Committee criticized Trump for his remarks, saying they "undermine our economy."

Yeah no shit.

2001400ex · April 2016

PurpleJ said:
The Democratic National Committee criticized Trump for his remarks, saying they "undermine our economy."

Yeah no shit.

Ho Lee shit J. We do agree.

Southerndawg · April 2016

sarktastic said:
Real consumer spending is in a downward trend... oops.

Fed sayz: stagflation is what the cool kids talk about now.

Been there, done that, now were doing it again. Reagan/Volcker fixed it last time around, unfortunately there are no Ronald Reagan's running for president, and the dip shit running the fed is the classic PC/affirmative action hire, absolutely no Volcker. We're fucked.

2001400ex · April 2016

Southerndawg said:

sarktastic said:
Real consumer spending is in a downward trend... oops.

Fed sayz: stagflation is what the cool kids talk about now.
Been there, done that, now were doing it again. Reagan/Volcker fixed it last time around, unfortunately there are no Ronald Reagan's running for president, and the dip shit running the fed is the classic PC/affirmative action hire, absolutely no Volcker. We're fucked.

Do you know what stagflation is either? Or the cause behind stagflation in the 70s?

PurpleJ · April 2016

2001400ex said:

PurpleJ said:
The Democratic National Committee criticized Trump for his remarks, saying they "undermine our economy."

Yeah no shit.
Ho Lee shit J. We do agree.

No we don't. You assume Trump is wrong because people with vested interest in him being wrong said so. I don't.

2001400ex · April 2016

PurpleJ said:

2001400ex said:

PurpleJ said:
The Democratic National Committee criticized Trump for his remarks, saying they "undermine our economy."

Yeah no shit.
Ho Lee shit J. We do agree.
No we don't. You assume Trump is wrong because people with vested interest in him being wrong said so. I don't.

Actually I said why Trump is wrong. And it has nothing to do with what the economist in the article said. J fucktarded as always.

greenblood · April 2016

2001400ex said:

PurpleJ said:
He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).

Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.

Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?

I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.

This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?

I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?

This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system?

2001400ex · April 2016

greenblood said:

2001400ex said:

PurpleJ said:
He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).

Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.

Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.

This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?

I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?

This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system?

Yeah that's exactly why we go from boom to bust. Typically 5-7 years of boom and 1 year of recession. The recessions kind of cleanse the economy.

Savings is actually one of the contributors of the slow recoveries we've had. People on average haven't been as willing to spend beyond their means.

PurpleJ · April 2016

What happens to all the debt financing when the rates go up? Hondo?

2001400ex · April 2016

PurpleJ said:
What happens to all the debt financing when the rates go up? Hondo?

Well besides the fact we are $19 trillion in debt and the low rates are making that somewhat sustainable. Yes the housing market will be an issue when rates go up. Among other issues. The rest of the debt will be as is, most clients I have that have variable rate loans or bonds, have locked in a fixed rate swap agreement to hedge the rates.

doogsinparadise · April 2016

greenblood said:

2001400ex said:

PurpleJ said:
He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).

Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.

Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.

This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?

I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?

This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system?

Neoliberalism, ain't it great!

PurpleJ · April 2016

2001400ex said:

PurpleJ said:
What happens to all the debt financing when the rates go up? Hondo?
Well besides the fact we are $19 trillion in debt and the low rates are making that somewhat sustainable. Yes the housing market will be an issue when rates go up. Among other issues. The rest of the debt will be as is, most clients I have that have variable rate loans or bonds, have locked in a fixed rate swap agreement to hedge the rates.

I was actually referring to debt financing by companies. There are "other issues", some of which you have stated, albeit with little understanding of the context. But what happens when rates go up and investor confidence goes down? Do tell.

UWhuskytskeet · April 2016

He put real unemployment above 20 percent.

This shit is regularly posted and reported. I don't know why people have to randomly pull numbers out of their asses.

U6 was reported at 9.8% for March 2016.

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