What happens to all the debt financing when the rates go up? Hondo?
Well besides the fact we are $19 trillion in debt and the low rates are making that somewhat sustainable. Yes the housing market will be an issue when rates go up. Among other issues. The rest of the debt will be as is, most clients I have that have variable rate loans or bonds, have locked in a fixed rate swap agreement to hedge the rates.
I was actually referring to debt financing by companies. There are "other issues", some of which you have stated, albeit with little understanding of the context. But what happens when rates go up and investor confidence goes down? Do tell.
I know what you were referring to J. I mentioned the federal debt because that's key to the reason the fed doesn't want to raise rates (not to mention the real estate lobby).
To answer your question, of course a recession happens (mostly the investor confidence issue), which is another reason the fed is being very slow to raise rates. Along with the fact there isn't really inflation, which is what controlling interest rates is about.
But you've read the minutes of the fed meetings so you already know this.
He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).
Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.
Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.
This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?
I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?
This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system?
Yeah that's exactly why we go from boom to bust. Typically 5-7 years of boom and 1 year of recession. The recessions kind of cleanse the economy.
Savings is actually one of the contributors of the slow recoveries we've had. People on average haven't been as willing to spend beyond their means.
That should be a good thing.
Our economy shouldn't be reliant on people spending beyond their means. Doesn't that exasperate economic crises even further?
It's messed up that we have an economy that's built on the mindset that an individual/family should save money while at the same time hoping other people/families don't.
He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).
Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.
Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.
This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?
I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?
This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system?
Yeah that's exactly why we go from boom to bust. Typically 5-7 years of boom and 1 year of recession. The recessions kind of cleanse the economy.
Savings is actually one of the contributors of the slow recoveries we've had. People on average haven't been as willing to spend beyond their means.
That should be a good thing.
Our economy shouldn't be reliant on people spending beyond their means. Doesn't that exasperate economic crises even further?
It's messed up that we have an economy that's built on the mindset that an individual/family should save money while at the same time hoping other people/families don't.
Agreed. Our economy has always been based on consumer spending (except for during the wars, when government spending and borrowing fueled the economy).
Our economy is based on grow, grow, grow. When we appear to stop growing, everyone freaks out and stops spending money, which makes the recession worse.
He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).
Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.
Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.
This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?
I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?
This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system?
Yeah that's exactly why we go from boom to bust. Typically 5-7 years of boom and 1 year of recession. The recessions kind of cleanse the economy.
Savings is actually one of the contributors of the slow recoveries we've had. People on average haven't been as willing to spend beyond their means.
That should be a good thing.
Our economy shouldn't be reliant on people spending beyond their means. Doesn't that exasperate economic crises even further?
It's messed up that we have an economy that's built on the mindset that an individual/family should save money while at the same time hoping other people/families don't.
Agreed. Our economy has always been based on consumer spending (except for during the wars, when government spending and borrowing fueled the economy).
Our economy is based on grow, grow, grow. When we appear to stop growing, everyone freaks out and stops spending money, which makes the recession worse.
That's why we need to get more involved in exporting. I realize we are #3 in the world, however, we are nearly at half the exporting levels of the top 2 (China and India). I understand their economies are different, but we need to expand our government away from absolute dependence on consumer spending.
He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).
Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.
Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.
This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?
I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?
This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system?
Yeah that's exactly why we go from boom to bust. Typically 5-7 years of boom and 1 year of recession. The recessions kind of cleanse the economy.
Savings is actually one of the contributors of the slow recoveries we've had. People on average haven't been as willing to spend beyond their means.
That should be a good thing.
Our economy shouldn't be reliant on people spending beyond their means. Doesn't that exasperate economic crises even further?
It's messed up that we have an economy that's built on the mindset that an individual/family should save money while at the same time hoping other people/families don't.
Agreed. Our economy has always been based on consumer spending (except for during the wars, when government spending and borrowing fueled the economy).
Our economy is based on grow, grow, grow. When we appear to stop growing, everyone freaks out and stops spending money, which makes the recession worse.
That's why we need to get more involved in exporting. I realize we are #3 in the world, however, we are nearly at half the exporting levels of the top 2 (China and India). I understand their economies are different, but we need to expand our government away from absolute dependence on consumer spending.
There are positives and negatives about increasing our exports. The more we do that, the more reliant we are on their economies. A couple months ago, people were freaking out because China was only going to grow at an 8% rate rather than 10% (or whatever, those aren't exact). That right there caused the NYSE to decrease in value.
There is no easy solution, but I do agree that expanding exports will help our economy, if done right. And we hedge the expansion to decrease the effect of their economy on ours.
Nobody but Obama was predicting growth rates in China of 8-10%.
Wall Street knows China's economic numbers are as phony as your cuog education
What are you talking about? It's history, not a prediction.
The Chinese economy grew an annual 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, slightly down from 6.9 percent in the previous quarter and the weakest since the first quarter of 2009. The figure was in line with market expectations as strength in services and consumption offset weaker manufacturing and exports. For full year of 2015, GDP expanded by 6.9 percent, lower than 7.3 percent in 2014 and the weakest growth in 25 years. The government targeted the economy to expand at around 7.0 percent for the year. GDP Annual Growth Rate in China averaged 9.88 percent from 1989 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 15.40 percent in the first quarter of 1993 and a record low of 3.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 1990. GDP Annual Growth Rate in China is reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
He could be right, but the people quoted in that article would never admit it. Same type of people that kept propping up investor confidence right until the bitter end the last time around. Fuck you are dense.
You don't even understand basic economics either. The comment from me isn't about whether we are going into a recession (I think we are going into one in the next year or two, but not for the reasons Trump stated).
Trump also doesn't get that 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which underneath that is consumer confidence.
Let me ask you something J. Serious question. When the president says the stock market is overinflated, we have 20% unemployment, and we are headed towards a massive recession, what happens to consumer confidence?
I would argue that more than 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending.
This is the one area that boggles my mind. Are we supposed to save our money or spend it? It's funny that when people save their money it hurts our economy, but isn't consumer spending in itself a giant bubble? When we eventually have a crash isn't it good for people to have reserves to live off of?
I've never understood why we get it from both sides. Is the real goal to have 85% of Americans spending every paycheck and for the lucky 15% to save and be better off when the REAL crash hits?
This is why I believe we need to have a stronger footnote in exports. When you need people to spend 90% of their disposable income to make the economy work, wouldn't you think there is something inherently wrong with the system?
Yeah that's exactly why we go from boom to bust. Typically 5-7 years of boom and 1 year of recession. The recessions kind of cleanse the economy.
Savings is actually one of the contributors of the slow recoveries we've had. People on average haven't been as willing to spend beyond their means.
That should be a good thing.
Our economy shouldn't be reliant on people spending beyond their means. Doesn't that exasperate economic crises even further?
It's messed up that we have an economy that's built on the mindset that an individual/family should save money while at the same time hoping other people/families don't.
Agreed. Our economy has always been based on consumer spending (except for during the wars, when government spending and borrowing fueled the economy).
Our economy is based on grow, grow, grow. When we appear to stop growing, everyone freaks out and stops spending money, which makes the recession worse.
I think fair trade would help that. China gets pissed when we tariff them, but they get to tariff us at will? I think we need to establish a trade policy that, if you tariff us 30%, we tariff you 30%. If you give us free trade, we give you free trade.
The FED... peddling fiction today said their Labor Market Conditions Index is at the lowest level since 2009.
The Labor Market Conditions Index being released by the Federal Reserve Monday condenses 19 different labor data points, including payrolls and unemployment, into an index that correlates strongly with the economic business cycle. Last month, the index dropped to negative 2.4 percent from the previous month; levels similar to or below this have only occurred in the months preceding and during the past two recessions, as well as during the 2002-2003 jobless recovery. In each of these periods, the Fed had either ended its hiking cycle (2000, 2007) or engaged in easing fiscal policy (2003 tax cut.)
Comments
To answer your question, of course a recession happens (mostly the investor confidence issue), which is another reason the fed is being very slow to raise rates. Along with the fact there isn't really inflation, which is what controlling interest rates is about.
But you've read the minutes of the fed meetings so you already know this.
Our economy shouldn't be reliant on people spending beyond their means. Doesn't that exasperate economic crises even further?
It's messed up that we have an economy that's built on the mindset that an individual/family should save money while at the same time hoping other people/families don't.
Our economy is based on grow, grow, grow. When we appear to stop growing, everyone freaks out and stops spending money, which makes the recession worse.
There is no easy solution, but I do agree that expanding exports will help our economy, if done right. And we hedge the expansion to decrease the effect of their economy on ours.
Wall Street knows China's economic numbers are as phony as your cuog education
Ty will win big at UW
Emmert is a football president
The Chinese economy grew an annual 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, slightly down from 6.9 percent in the previous quarter and the weakest since the first quarter of 2009. The figure was in line with market expectations as strength in services and consumption offset weaker manufacturing and exports. For full year of 2015, GDP expanded by 6.9 percent, lower than 7.3 percent in 2014 and the weakest growth in 25 years. The government targeted the economy to expand at around 7.0 percent for the year. GDP Annual Growth Rate in China averaged 9.88 percent from 1989 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 15.40 percent in the first quarter of 1993 and a record low of 3.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 1990. GDP Annual Growth Rate in China is reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual
So let me get this straight. You support an endless self-inflicted boom/bust cycle but are against political candidates predicting the next bust?
On Trump, the comment is making fun of his shitty use of statistics to predict a recession.
Like I said. Your reading comprehension is lacking.
The Labor Market Conditions Index being released by the Federal Reserve Monday condenses 19 different labor data points, including payrolls and unemployment, into an index that correlates strongly with the economic business cycle. Last month, the index dropped to negative 2.4 percent from the previous month; levels similar to or below this have only occurred in the months preceding and during the past two recessions, as well as during the 2002-2003 jobless recovery. In each of these periods, the Fed had either ended its hiking cycle (2000, 2007) or engaged in easing fiscal policy (2003 tax cut.)
source: Bloomberg