Since 1998, election polls in U.S. presidential, House, Senate, and governor races have typically missed the final vote margin by about 6 points on average, according to FiveThirtyEight's analysis.
For example, in 2020, polls showed President Joe Biden with a strong lead over then President Trump. Just before the election, Biden led by 8.4 points in FiveThirtyEight's average. He ultimately won the popular vote by less than 4.5 points—just enough for an Electoral College victory.
Similarly, in 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of winning, but she ultimately lost the Electoral College despite winning the popular vote.
Comments
Did @dnc (retweeting) doxx @MelloDawg ??
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like I said
GA/AZ/NC are going Trump.
Watch WI and NH
VA and PA will take forever to sort out. MI will stay blue.
From that article:
Since 1998, election polls in U.S. presidential, House, Senate, and governor races have typically missed the final vote margin by about 6 points on average, according to FiveThirtyEight's analysis.
For example, in 2020, polls showed President Joe Biden with a strong lead over then President Trump. Just before the election, Biden led by 8.4 points in FiveThirtyEight's average. He ultimately won the popular vote by less than 4.5 points—just enough for an Electoral College victory.
Similarly, in 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of winning, but she ultimately lost the Electoral College despite winning the popular vote.
Wait! Bearswin is a dude?
Pipes of all kinds really seem to hate elections
But not crack pipes. Weird.
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After work is usually GOP too
Fuck off, Barry. You’re not my dad
Lolo
*poles