Leveling Down Update
Comments
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Long ways to go, but I am beginning to see the possibility of the mold being broken
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I've mostly put on the recruiting board that the 4 star west coast and especially WA recruits really seemed to have fallen off a cliff. As has under the radar guys. We're seeing way less missed instate guys blowing up at WSU or OSU or even like Cal or Boise. I think demographic shifts are killing the region. Hopefully Landen Hatchett, Denzel Boston, Tristan Dunn, and Jacob Lane types prove me wrong. Stand by JTT being pretty overrated too.chuck said:
At most positions, and in most cases, 3* from anywhere in the country > 4* from the west coast (not just Wa). It's harder for great prospects to hide out in the West so you don't get as many underrated, surprise 3*. This staff seems to do a great job of finding and recruiting guys from the Midwest and South and are building some good depth on the DL and D backfield that way.YellowSnow said:
I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.PineapplePirate said:I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck. -
Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?YellowSnow said:
I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.PineapplePirate said:I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck. -
Shaq was and generally played like one. I think Reggie was.DoogmanRefund said:
Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?YellowSnow said:
I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.PineapplePirate said:I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck. -
Shaq played like one. Good call. Those teams were mostly forgettable. Could have used him during the Manu/Wellington era.YellowSnow said:
Shaq was and generally played like one. I think Reggie was.DoogmanRefund said:
Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?YellowSnow said:
I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.PineapplePirate said:I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.
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Does the 40 4* magic number still matter in the portal era? I don't think it does. How do you star rate the transfers? Their original star rating?
The 40 4* came about because you had to have a baseline talent level to compete for natty. Transfers were rare and made up a very small percentage of the roster. Predicting successful college production from teen bois is an activity where you want as many rolls of the dice as possible, so you need 40 assuming enough will hit. With say 10% of 3*s, 25% of 4*s and 50% of 5*s becoming high end players, gotta have the odds on hitting enough of those high end players.
In transfer era, the transfers you are taking have assumed to already hit, or have a much higher probability of hitting the big time than the 4* teen boi. Their 3* rating from being 18 is no longer relevant; their probability of being a high end college player is a much higher known. At that point it is 60-95% depending on the player, with a Caleb Williams at 100% and a Penix at 80% when he transferred. His 3* rating isn't relevant; he had proven to be high-end when healthy and the probability shifted to whether he could stay healthy. -
I agree with everything you said. I'm just not comfortable with relying on the portal too heavily. If you aren't building good depth via HS recruiting and miss on just one or two important portal guys you're just fucked.whlinder said:Does the 40 4* magic number still matter in the portal era? I don't think it does. How do you star rate the transfers? Their original star rating?
The 40 4* came about because you had to have a baseline talent level to compete for natty. Transfers were rare and made up a very small percentage of the roster. Predicting successful college production from teen bois is an activity where you want as many rolls of the dice as possible, so you need 40 assuming enough will hit. With say 10% of 3*s, 25% of 4*s and 50% of 5*s becoming high end players, gotta have the odds on hitting enough of those high end players.
In transfer era, the transfers you are taking have assumed to already hit, or have a much higher probability of hitting the big time than the 4* teen boi. Their 3* rating from being 18 is no longer relevant; their probability of being a high end college player is a much higher known. At that point it is 60-95% depending on the player, with a Caleb Williams at 100% and a Penix at 80% when he transferred. His 3* rating isn't relevant; he had proven to be high-end when healthy and the probability shifted to whether he could stay healthy. -
West coast basically cancelled high school and junior high sports for a year and half. Development of players was stunted more than other areas of the country.WoolleyDoog said:
I've mostly put on the recruiting board that the 4 star west coast and especially WA recruits really seemed to have fallen off a cliff. As has under the radar guys. We're seeing way less missed instate guys blowing up at WSU or OSU or even like Cal or Boise. I think demographic shifts are killing the region. Hopefully Landen Hatchett, Denzel Boston, Tristan Dunn, and Jacob Lane types prove me wrong. Stand by JTT being pretty overrated too.chuck said:
At most positions, and in most cases, 3* from anywhere in the country > 4* from the west coast (not just Wa). It's harder for great prospects to hide out in the West so you don't get as many underrated, surprise 3*. This staff seems to do a great job of finding and recruiting guys from the Midwest and South and are building some good depth on the DL and D backfield that way.YellowSnow said:
I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.PineapplePirate said:I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck. -
Hurtful.YellowSnow said:
If we win the Pac 12 and make it the Natty game, it will be the biggest indictment of TBS cult in human history.DerekJohnson said:We have something the 5 star factories don't: Big Penix Energy!
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Shaq and Reggie are the only clearcut 5-5 guys signed by UW. Was ASJ a 5 star in the end? If so I think he can be added.DoogmanRefund said:
Shaq played like one. Good call. Those teams were mostly forgettable. Could have used him during the Manu/Wellington era.YellowSnow said:
Shaq was and generally played like one. I think Reggie was.DoogmanRefund said:
Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?YellowSnow said:
I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.PineapplePirate said:I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.
Instate during recruiting rankings I feel like a lot haven't panned out or at least underwhelmed:
Heaps - Bust. Original JT Daniels.
Max Browne - Massive bust
Eason - Underwhelmed.
Jonathan Stewart - 5*-5*
Reggie - 5*-5*
Emeka - 5*-5*
Kavario - Bust
ASJ - 5*-5* but still kind of underwhelming
Schilling - 5*-4*
Garnett - 5*-5* I guess but I'll stand by that he was kind of just decent and McCaffrey was making plays and with Stanford's OLine pedigree at the time he slotted into a bunch of accolades then Chipper reached for him like way before anyone else would have.
Sarrell - underwhelmed big time
Taylor Mays - 5*-5*
JTT - Jury is out. Let's see how the next 1-2 years actually go
Sam Huard - Yikes fucking yikes - has there ever been a five star recruit and that high of a five star who ended up in FCS, and that quickly?
Smalls - More yikes - can't crack the two deeps on Colorado's atrocious Line
Locker and Budda should have been 5*-5*s
