Leveling Down Update

YellowSnow

Looks like we're down to 27 x 4 Stars "In Progress"

https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/

Only Clempson has won the whole thing in the CFP era with less than the magic number or 40 (they had 39 in 2016).

TCU has 17 last year. I don't recall were Oregon was in 2014 but it was low 30's, right?

Can UW be the first to do it with well below 40? We had 21 in 2016 including 4 star QB Jake Browning.

DerekJohnson

We have something the 5 star factories don't: Big Penix Energy!

YellowSnow

DerekJohnson said:

We have something the 5 star factories don't: Big Penix Energy!

If we win the Pac 12 and make it the Natty game, it will be the biggest indictment of TBS cult in human history.

chuck

Some of the best players on offense were 4*:

Rosengarten
Fautanu
Odunze
McMillan

I think Penix and Polk were originally 3* recruits out of HS. A lot of the OL were 4* and they all seem to be pretty good. Brailsford was 3*.

The only 4* on the defense I can think of who is a key player is Tuli L. He's surrounded by 4* Pete recruits at DT who haven't really distinguished themselves. Trice and ZTF were 3*. All of the LBs and DBs I can think of, aside from Asa, were 3*.

PineapplePirate

I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.

WoolleyDoog

I think I'm not the only one to concede this year is fine. It's a great mix of development, some breaks, and having legit four stars like Odunze, McMillan, Fautanu, Trice (should have been a 4), Tuli and Rosengarten the Penix who was basically a 5* transfer at key positions.

I'm worried long term though, the portal isn't a great source for more than like one top end guy a cycle and Penix was a rare convergence of a bunch of breaks for UW.

YellowSnow

PineapplePirate said:

I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.

I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.

RaceBannon

Florida State played 17 transfers, Clemson 0

This is college football

If you get REAL 5 stars out of high school there is a far greater chance you will lose them in the portal. What if UW had a stud 5 star freshman receiver this year - he'd be gone after never seeing the field

I actually do trust DeBoer to do both and do both well. But I think Portal acquisition is more important

chuck

YellowSnow said:

PineapplePirate said:

I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.

I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.

At most positions, and in most cases, 3* from anywhere in the country > 4* from the west coast (not just Wa). It's harder for great prospects to hide out in the West so you don't get as many underrated, surprise 3*. This staff seems to do a great job of finding and recruiting guys from the Midwest and South and are building some good depth on the DL and D backfield that way.

YellowSnow

RaceBannon said:

Florida State played 17 transfers, Clemson 0

This is college football

If you get REAL 5 stars out of high school there is a far greater chance you will lose them in the portal. What if UW had a stud 5 star freshman receiver this year - he'd be gone after never seeing the field

I actually do trust DeBoer to do both and do both well. But I think Portal acquisition is more important

Fats going out and snagging BPE will likely end up the greatest big dick move in the history of Washington Football.

I still hate NIL and transfer portal unless it helps Washington.

fivehundredmileDAWG

This staff has the portal dialed …

They will recruit to the system and then supplement with high talent in portal that also fits system. Then tilt the system slightly to meet talent if necessary …

fivehundredmileDAWG

Long ways to go, but I am beginning to see the possibility of the mold being broken

WoolleyDoog

chuck said:

YellowSnow said:

PineapplePirate said:

I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.

I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.

At most positions, and in most cases, 3* from anywhere in the country > 4* from the west coast (not just Wa). It's harder for great prospects to hide out in the West so you don't get as many underrated, surprise 3*. This staff seems to do a great job of finding and recruiting guys from the Midwest and South and are building some good depth on the DL and D backfield that way.

I've mostly put on the recruiting board that the 4 star west coast and especially WA recruits really seemed to have fallen off a cliff. As has under the radar guys. We're seeing way less missed instate guys blowing up at WSU or OSU or even like Cal or Boise. I think demographic shifts are killing the region. Hopefully Landen Hatchett, Denzel Boston, Tristan Dunn, and Jacob Lane types prove me wrong. Stand by JTT being pretty overrated too.

DoogmanRefund

YellowSnow said:

PineapplePirate said:

I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.

I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.

Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?

YellowSnow

DoogmanRefund said:

YellowSnow said:

PineapplePirate said:

I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.

I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.

Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?

Shaq was and generally played like one. I think Reggie was.

DoogmanRefund

YellowSnow said:

DoogmanRefund said:

YellowSnow said:

PineapplePirate said:

I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.

I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.

Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?

Shaq was and generally played like one. I think Reggie was.

Shaq played like one. Good call. Those teams were mostly forgettable. Could have used him during the Manu/Wellington era.

whlinder

Does the 40 4* magic number still matter in the portal era? I don't think it does. How do you star rate the transfers? Their original star rating?

The 40 4* came about because you had to have a baseline talent level to compete for natty. Transfers were rare and made up a very small percentage of the roster. Predicting successful college production from teen bois is an activity where you want as many rolls of the dice as possible, so you need 40 assuming enough will hit. With say 10% of 3*s, 25% of 4*s and 50% of 5*s becoming high end players, gotta have the odds on hitting enough of those high end players.

In transfer era, the transfers you are taking have assumed to already hit, or have a much higher probability of hitting the big time than the 4* teen boi. Their 3* rating from being 18 is no longer relevant; their probability of being a high end college player is a much higher known. At that point it is 60-95% depending on the player, with a Caleb Williams at 100% and a Penix at 80% when he transferred. His 3* rating isn't relevant; he had proven to be high-end when healthy and the probability shifted to whether he could stay healthy.

chuck

whlinder said:

Does the 40 4* magic number still matter in the portal era? I don't think it does. How do you star rate the transfers? Their original star rating?

The 40 4* came about because you had to have a baseline talent level to compete for natty. Transfers were rare and made up a very small percentage of the roster. Predicting successful college production from teen bois is an activity where you want as many rolls of the dice as possible, so you need 40 assuming enough will hit. With say 10% of 3*s, 25% of 4*s and 50% of 5*s becoming high end players, gotta have the odds on hitting enough of those high end players.

In transfer era, the transfers you are taking have assumed to already hit, or have a much higher probability of hitting the big time than the 4* teen boi. Their 3* rating from being 18 is no longer relevant; their probability of being a high end college player is a much higher known. At that point it is 60-95% depending on the player, with a Caleb Williams at 100% and a Penix at 80% when he transferred. His 3* rating isn't relevant; he had proven to be high-end when healthy and the probability shifted to whether he could stay healthy.

I agree with everything you said. I'm just not comfortable with relying on the portal too heavily. If you aren't building good depth via HS recruiting and miss on just one or two important portal guys you're just fucked.

Bob_C

WoolleyDoog said:

chuck said:

YellowSnow said:

PineapplePirate said:

I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.

I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.

At most positions, and in most cases, 3* from anywhere in the country > 4* from the west coast (not just Wa). It's harder for great prospects to hide out in the West so you don't get as many underrated, surprise 3*. This staff seems to do a great job of finding and recruiting guys from the Midwest and South and are building some good depth on the DL and D backfield that way.

I've mostly put on the recruiting board that the 4 star west coast and especially WA recruits really seemed to have fallen off a cliff. As has under the radar guys. We're seeing way less missed instate guys blowing up at WSU or OSU or even like Cal or Boise. I think demographic shifts are killing the region. Hopefully Landen Hatchett, Denzel Boston, Tristan Dunn, and Jacob Lane types prove me wrong. Stand by JTT being pretty overrated too.

West coast basically cancelled high school and junior high sports for a year and half. Development of players was stunted more than other areas of the country.

dirtysouwfdawg

YellowSnow said:

DerekJohnson said:

We have something the 5 star factories don't: Big Penix Energy!

If we win the Pac 12 and make it the Natty game, it will be the biggest indictment of TBS cult in human history.

Hurtful.

WoolleyDoog

DoogmanRefund said:

YellowSnow said:

DoogmanRefund said:

YellowSnow said:

PineapplePirate said:

I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.

I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.

Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?

Shaq was and generally played like one. I think Reggie was.

Shaq played like one. Good call. Those teams were mostly forgettable. Could have used him during the Manu/Wellington era.

Shaq and Reggie are the only clearcut 5-5 guys signed by UW. Was ASJ a 5 star in the end? If so I think he can be added.

Instate during recruiting rankings I feel like a lot haven't panned out or at least underwhelmed:

Heaps - Bust. Original JT Daniels.
Max Browne - Massive bust
Eason - Underwhelmed.
Jonathan Stewart - 5*-5*
Reggie - 5*-5*
Emeka - 5*-5*
Kavario - Bust
ASJ - 5*-5* but still kind of underwhelming
Schilling - 5*-4*
Garnett - 5*-5* I guess but I'll stand by that he was kind of just decent and McCaffrey was making plays and with Stanford's OLine pedigree at the time he slotted into a bunch of accolades then Chipper reached for him like way before anyone else would have.
Sarrell - underwhelmed big time
Taylor Mays - 5*-5*
JTT - Jury is out. Let's see how the next 1-2 years actually go
Sam Huard - Yikes fucking yikes - has there ever been a five star recruit and that high of a five star who ended up in FCS, and that quickly?
Smalls - More yikes - can't crack the two deeps on Colorado's atrocious Line

Locker and Budda should have been 5*-5*s