Leveling Down Update
https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
Only Clempson has won the whole thing in the CFP era with less than the magic number or 40 (they had 39 in 2016).
TCU has 17 last year. I don't recall were Oregon was in 2014 but it was low 30's, right?
Can UW be the first to do it with well below 40? We had 21 in 2016 including 4 star QB Jake Browning.
Comments
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We have something the 5 star factories don't: Big Penix Energy!
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If we win the Pac 12 and make it the Natty game, it will be the biggest indictment of TBS cult in human history.DerekJohnson said:We have something the 5 star factories don't: Big Penix Energy!
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Some of the best players on offense were 4*:
Rosengarten
Fautanu
Odunze
McMillan
I think Penix and Polk were originally 3* recruits out of HS. A lot of the OL were 4* and they all seem to be pretty good. Brailsford was 3*.
The only 4* on the defense I can think of who is a key player is Tuli L. He's surrounded by 4* Pete recruits at DT who haven't really distinguished themselves. Trice and ZTF were 3*. All of the LBs and DBs I can think of, aside from Asa, were 3*. -
I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
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I think I'm not the only one to concede this year is fine. It's a great mix of development, some breaks, and having legit four stars like Odunze, McMillan, Fautanu, Trice (should have been a 4), Tuli and Rosengarten the Penix who was basically a 5* transfer at key positions.
I'm worried long term though, the portal isn't a great source for more than like one top end guy a cycle and Penix was a rare convergence of a bunch of breaks for UW. -
I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.PineapplePirate said:I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck. -
Florida State played 17 transfers, Clemson 0
This is college football
If you get REAL 5 stars out of high school there is a far greater chance you will lose them in the portal. What if UW had a stud 5 star freshman receiver this year - he'd be gone after never seeing the field
I actually do trust DeBoer to do both and do both well. But I think Portal acquisition is more important -
At most positions, and in most cases, 3* from anywhere in the country > 4* from the west coast (not just Wa). It's harder for great prospects to hide out in the West so you don't get as many underrated, surprise 3*. This staff seems to do a great job of finding and recruiting guys from the Midwest and South and are building some good depth on the DL and D backfield that way.YellowSnow said:
I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.PineapplePirate said:I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck. -
Fats going out and snagging BPE will likely end up the greatest big dick move in the history of Washington Football.RaceBannon said:Florida State played 17 transfers, Clemson 0
This is college football
If you get REAL 5 stars out of high school there is a far greater chance you will lose them in the portal. What if UW had a stud 5 star freshman receiver this year - he'd be gone after never seeing the field
I actually do trust DeBoer to do both and do both well. But I think Portal acquisition is more important
I still hate NIL and transfer portal unless it helps Washington. -
This staff has the portal dialed …
They will recruit to the system and then supplement with high talent in portal that also fits system. Then tilt the system slightly to meet talent if necessary … -
Long ways to go, but I am beginning to see the possibility of the mold being broken
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I've mostly put on the recruiting board that the 4 star west coast and especially WA recruits really seemed to have fallen off a cliff. As has under the radar guys. We're seeing way less missed instate guys blowing up at WSU or OSU or even like Cal or Boise. I think demographic shifts are killing the region. Hopefully Landen Hatchett, Denzel Boston, Tristan Dunn, and Jacob Lane types prove me wrong. Stand by JTT being pretty overrated too.chuck said:
At most positions, and in most cases, 3* from anywhere in the country > 4* from the west coast (not just Wa). It's harder for great prospects to hide out in the West so you don't get as many underrated, surprise 3*. This staff seems to do a great job of finding and recruiting guys from the Midwest and South and are building some good depth on the DL and D backfield that way.YellowSnow said:
I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.PineapplePirate said:I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck. -
Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?YellowSnow said:
I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.PineapplePirate said:I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck. -
Shaq was and generally played like one. I think Reggie was.DoogmanRefund said:
Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?YellowSnow said:
I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.PineapplePirate said:I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck. -
Shaq played like one. Good call. Those teams were mostly forgettable. Could have used him during the Manu/Wellington era.YellowSnow said:
Shaq was and generally played like one. I think Reggie was.DoogmanRefund said:
Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?YellowSnow said:
I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.PineapplePirate said:I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.
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Does the 40 4* magic number still matter in the portal era? I don't think it does. How do you star rate the transfers? Their original star rating?
The 40 4* came about because you had to have a baseline talent level to compete for natty. Transfers were rare and made up a very small percentage of the roster. Predicting successful college production from teen bois is an activity where you want as many rolls of the dice as possible, so you need 40 assuming enough will hit. With say 10% of 3*s, 25% of 4*s and 50% of 5*s becoming high end players, gotta have the odds on hitting enough of those high end players.
In transfer era, the transfers you are taking have assumed to already hit, or have a much higher probability of hitting the big time than the 4* teen boi. Their 3* rating from being 18 is no longer relevant; their probability of being a high end college player is a much higher known. At that point it is 60-95% depending on the player, with a Caleb Williams at 100% and a Penix at 80% when he transferred. His 3* rating isn't relevant; he had proven to be high-end when healthy and the probability shifted to whether he could stay healthy. -
I agree with everything you said. I'm just not comfortable with relying on the portal too heavily. If you aren't building good depth via HS recruiting and miss on just one or two important portal guys you're just fucked.whlinder said:Does the 40 4* magic number still matter in the portal era? I don't think it does. How do you star rate the transfers? Their original star rating?
The 40 4* came about because you had to have a baseline talent level to compete for natty. Transfers were rare and made up a very small percentage of the roster. Predicting successful college production from teen bois is an activity where you want as many rolls of the dice as possible, so you need 40 assuming enough will hit. With say 10% of 3*s, 25% of 4*s and 50% of 5*s becoming high end players, gotta have the odds on hitting enough of those high end players.
In transfer era, the transfers you are taking have assumed to already hit, or have a much higher probability of hitting the big time than the 4* teen boi. Their 3* rating from being 18 is no longer relevant; their probability of being a high end college player is a much higher known. At that point it is 60-95% depending on the player, with a Caleb Williams at 100% and a Penix at 80% when he transferred. His 3* rating isn't relevant; he had proven to be high-end when healthy and the probability shifted to whether he could stay healthy. -
West coast basically cancelled high school and junior high sports for a year and half. Development of players was stunted more than other areas of the country.WoolleyDoog said:
I've mostly put on the recruiting board that the 4 star west coast and especially WA recruits really seemed to have fallen off a cliff. As has under the radar guys. We're seeing way less missed instate guys blowing up at WSU or OSU or even like Cal or Boise. I think demographic shifts are killing the region. Hopefully Landen Hatchett, Denzel Boston, Tristan Dunn, and Jacob Lane types prove me wrong. Stand by JTT being pretty overrated too.chuck said:
At most positions, and in most cases, 3* from anywhere in the country > 4* from the west coast (not just Wa). It's harder for great prospects to hide out in the West so you don't get as many underrated, surprise 3*. This staff seems to do a great job of finding and recruiting guys from the Midwest and South and are building some good depth on the DL and D backfield that way.YellowSnow said:
I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.PineapplePirate said:I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck. -
Hurtful.YellowSnow said:
If we win the Pac 12 and make it the Natty game, it will be the biggest indictment of TBS cult in human history.DerekJohnson said:We have something the 5 star factories don't: Big Penix Energy!
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Shaq and Reggie are the only clearcut 5-5 guys signed by UW. Was ASJ a 5 star in the end? If so I think he can be added.DoogmanRefund said:
Shaq played like one. Good call. Those teams were mostly forgettable. Could have used him during the Manu/Wellington era.YellowSnow said:
Shaq was and generally played like one. I think Reggie was.DoogmanRefund said:
Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?YellowSnow said:
I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.PineapplePirate said:I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.
Instate during recruiting rankings I feel like a lot haven't panned out or at least underwhelmed:
Heaps - Bust. Original JT Daniels.
Max Browne - Massive bust
Eason - Underwhelmed.
Jonathan Stewart - 5*-5*
Reggie - 5*-5*
Emeka - 5*-5*
Kavario - Bust
ASJ - 5*-5* but still kind of underwhelming
Schilling - 5*-4*
Garnett - 5*-5* I guess but I'll stand by that he was kind of just decent and McCaffrey was making plays and with Stanford's OLine pedigree at the time he slotted into a bunch of accolades then Chipper reached for him like way before anyone else would have.
Sarrell - underwhelmed big time
Taylor Mays - 5*-5*
JTT - Jury is out. Let's see how the next 1-2 years actually go
Sam Huard - Yikes fucking yikes - has there ever been a five star recruit and that high of a five star who ended up in FCS, and that quickly?
Smalls - More yikes - can't crack the two deeps on Colorado's atrocious Line
Locker and Budda should have been 5*-5*s -
There are 4 teams in the AP Top-15 that are not Top-15 in 2023 composite talent.
UNC-17
FSU-20
UW-26
Utah-33
Three are Top-10 with UNC #15.
Miami and Florida are the Top-15 composite talent teams currently outside the Top-15.
TAM and Clempson are by far the biggest busts with the #4 & #5 composite talent and currently unranked.
LIPO.
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I will take proven commodities via the portal over the 50/50 crapshoot that the 4 & 5* kids are. Put more money into NIL, less in dinners at the Space Needle.
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It's not really a question of whether you'd want to take the current UW route. The answer is no, for me at least.. I'd rather have 50+ blue chip HS recruits on the roster supplemented by the portal.46XiJCAB said:
There are 4 teams in the AP Top-15 that are not Top-15 in 2023 composite talent.
UNC-17
FSU-20
UW-26
Utah-33
Three are Top-10 with UNC #15.
Miami and Florida are the Top-15 composite talent teams currently outside the Top-15.
TAM and Clempson are by far the biggest busts with the #4 & #5 composite talent and currently unranked.
LIPO.
It's really about whether or not it will stay this way and whether Deboer can sustain top 10 performance by recruiting top 25 HS talent. Most seem to think so. I think so too but agree with lipo (not that there's a choice). -
That theory will be tested in the next couple of years for uw. I'm on the side of top HS talent playing early and having them for 3 years, while sprinkling in solid players from the portal to fill gaps. Oregon's best LB is most likely a portal guy who hasn't seen the field due to injury so it's a gamble too. Hasn't hurt them, yet.chuck said:
It's not really a question of whether you'd want to take the current UW route. The answer is no, for me at least.. I'd rather have 50+ blue chip HS recruits on the roster supplemented by the portal.46XiJCAB said:
There are 4 teams in the AP Top-15 that are not Top-15 in 2023 composite talent.
UNC-17
FSU-20
UW-26
Utah-33
Three are Top-10 with UNC #15.
Miami and Florida are the Top-15 composite talent teams currently outside the Top-15.
TAM and Clempson are by far the biggest busts with the #4 & #5 composite talent and currently unranked.
LIPO.
It's really about whether or not it will stay this way and whether Deboer can sustain top 10 performance by recruiting top 25 HS talent. Most seem to think so. I think so too but agree with lipo (not that there's a choice). -
It will be chinteresting to see how many high school recruits don’t end up portaling. Seems like the odds are stacked against them sticking to their commitment.
And it’s probably not even close.
Good progrums will have to use the portal bigly to stay good. -
How does the #16 stack up?chuck said:
It's not really a question of whether you'd want to take the current UW route. The answer is no, for me at least.. I'd rather have 50+ blue chip HS recruits on the roster supplemented by the portal.46XiJCAB said:
There are 4 teams in the AP Top-15 that are not Top-15 in 2023 composite talent.
UNC-17
FSU-20
UW-26
Utah-33
Three are Top-10 with UNC #15.
Miami and Florida are the Top-15 composite talent teams currently outside the Top-15.
TAM and Clempson are by far the biggest busts with the #4 & #5 composite talent and currently unranked.
LIPO.
It's really about whether or not it will stay this way and whether Deboer can sustain top 10 performance by recruiting top 25 HS talent. Most seem to think so. I think so too but agree with lipo (not that there's a choice). -
Kewg at 57 but had a tough 4th quarter against Beav who is 67.Kaepsknee said:
How does the #16 stack up?chuck said:
It's not really a question of whether you'd want to take the current UW route. The answer is no, for me at least.. I'd rather have 50+ blue chip HS recruits on the roster supplemented by the portal.46XiJCAB said:
There are 4 teams in the AP Top-15 that are not Top-15 in 2023 composite talent.
UNC-17
FSU-20
UW-26
Utah-33
Three are Top-10 with UNC #15.
Miami and Florida are the Top-15 composite talent teams currently outside the Top-15.
TAM and Clempson are by far the biggest busts with the #4 & #5 composite talent and currently unranked.
LIPO.
It's really about whether or not it will stay this way and whether Deboer can sustain top 10 performance by recruiting top 25 HS talent. Most seem to think so. I think so too but agree with lipo (not that there's a choice). -
This is pro-football. Hth.
The portal>recruiting. Never would have thought it would have come to this but here we are, Recruit the top kids, keep in touch if they sign somewhere else. Roster mgmt.
Penix, Muhammad, Bernard (took him back). Keep winning and there will be more kids--college game ready--desirous to plug in with winning coaches.
Looks like we're getting top WRs. Huff's recruits--hard working athletes--keep the QB upright. Defensively the coaches have upgraded where needed.
We still need better players across the bored but don't see the holes --LB, QB, and most of the time WRS-- the Peterman (FTG) teams had -
You want as many good players from all avenues. Saying that the portal is more important is unsustainable. Coaches knowing what their next season is going to look like for getting a couple of players is much more realistic than every single year hoping they hit perfect in the portal.Baseman said:This is pro-football. Hth.
The portal>recruiting. Never would have thought it would have come to this but here we are, Recruit the top kids, keep in touch if they sign somewhere else. Roster mgmt.
Penix, Muhammad, Bernard (took him back). Keep winning and there will be more kids--college game ready--desirous to plug in with winning coaches.
Looks like we're getting top WRs. Huff's recruits--hard working athletes--keep the QB upright. Defensively the coaches have upgraded where needed.
We still need better players across the bored but don't see the holes --LB, QB, and most of the time WRS-- the Peterman (FTG) teams had
Two kicks at the can > one
