Mariners baby, hot stove edition
Comments
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Short answer: Yes. That is what the DH is for. If you get the right fit, you've gotta pay to play.
It is impossible to out-perform a free agent, long-term contract. There will be decline, but is it slow, or fast? If a SS slows down or blows a knee out, he becomes a 3B. If he blows an arm out, he becomes a 2B/CF/LF. If he stops hitting, you are fucked.
The guys that become big FAs have track record, and they have performed a a very high level while being "grossly" underpaid for their production. The first big contract is pretty fair, the second one usually never is fair, for the club.
The years on these contracts are ridiculous, but short of offering 60-70 million a year for shorter years, that is the going rate for 5-6 good years at a premium position...My 2 cents -
I just don't see where any of them mash or carry a team offensively enough to get paid like that. Certainly not Correa or Bogarts.Fishpo31 said:Short answer: Yes. That is what the DH is for. If you get the right fit, you've gotta pay to play.
It is impossible to out-perform a free agent, long-term contract. There will be decline, but is it slow, or fast? If a SS slows down or blows a knee out, he becomes a 3B. If he blows an arm out, he becomes a 2B/CF/LF. If he stops hitting, you are fucked.
The guys that become big FAs have track record, and they have performed a a very high level while being "grossly" underpaid for their production. The first big contract is pretty fair, the second one usually never is fair, for the club.
The years on these contracts are ridiculous, but short of offering 60-70 million a year for shorter years, that is the going rate for 5-6 good years at a premium position...My 2 cents
That's not the only way to get it done either, and all the Ms need are two guys with dangerous bats to rotate and they're right there with the best offenses in the league. -
You can draft, trade, or FA sign. That is the order of preference, btw. If your young guys hit (Julio, Big, Dumper, Kirby, Gilbert...) it's all good. When you get down to one piece being the difference, FA / trade are the only options. Correa just got 350MM, and the guy that replaced him and was the WS MVP made $700,000 this year. As Michael Lewis said, it is the art of winning an unfair game...chuck said:
I just don't see where any of them mash or carry a team offensively enough to get paid like that. Certainly not Correa or Bogarts.Fishpo31 said:Short answer: Yes. That is what the DH is for. If you get the right fit, you've gotta pay to play.
It is impossible to out-perform a free agent, long-term contract. There will be decline, but is it slow, or fast? If a SS slows down or blows a knee out, he becomes a 3B. If he blows an arm out, he becomes a 2B/CF/LF. If he stops hitting, you are fucked.
The guys that become big FAs have track record, and they have performed a a very high level while being "grossly" underpaid for their production. The first big contract is pretty fair, the second one usually never is fair, for the club.
The years on these contracts are ridiculous, but short of offering 60-70 million a year for shorter years, that is the going rate for 5-6 good years at a premium position...My 2 cents
That's not the only way to get it done either, and all the Ms need are two guys with dangerous bats to rotate and they're right there with the best offenses in the league. -
Just listened to JP Morosi on the way to the store. Nelson Cruz’s name popped up, also mentioned Bennitendi. Also, said that Correa’s deal penciled out to about 27Mm per year, which is a pretty good value going forward…nice work, if you can get it…
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In LF, I think I'd rather have Trammell / Kelenic as the LH bat and Pollock on a 1 year or 2 year rental as the RH bat in LF. Benintendi is certainly less risky than running with Trammell / Kelenic and D. Moore could be the RH bat in LF when needed.Fishpo31 said:Just listened to JP Morosi on the way to the store. Nelson Cruz’s name popped up, also mentioned Bennitendi. Also, said that Correa’s deal penciled out to about 27Mm per year, which is a pretty good value going forward…nice work, if you can get it…
If Trader Jerry calls me, I'll tell him that I'm ok with either. -
@Fishpo31 @chuck @HFNY
Good chit fellas, you are my go to off-season news and analysis source at this point. You guys are pretty fucking good at breaking down the different tradeoffs in roster construction and club strategy. I’m
not a big enough baseball/Ms guy to know what else is out there covering the ins and outs, but I pop on here every couple days to catch up and feel like I learn something almost every time. -
I stopped paying attention for almost 10 years and got hooked back in last year. Still catching up. I'm full of ideas, but it's pretty obvious who really knows their shit here. @Fishpo31 is the one with the real world experience and real baseball nerd syndrome.FireTheJanitor said:@Fishpo31 @chuck @HFNY
Good chit fellas, you are my go to off-season news and analysis source at this point. You guys are pretty fucking good at breaking down the different tradeoffs in roster construction and club strategy. I’m
not a big enough baseball/Ms guy to know what else is out there covering the ins and outs, but I pop on here every couple days to catch up and feel like I learn something almost every time.
There are other guys who only stop in once in a while who know the game at least as well as me and follow just as closely too. They just don't lead boring enough lives to be in a Mariners thread in mid December.
I'm glad you're into it. We're not a big group. -
Yeah I love learning new things or ways at looking at the game from others. Baseball is a great sport for kids too (I don't have any yet) because it works on their attention spans, which is every more needed in a tech-driven world.chuck said:
I stopped paying attention for almost 10 years and got hooked back in last year. Still catching up. I'm full of ideas, but it's pretty obvious who really knows their shit here. @Fishpo31 is the one with the real world experience and real baseball nerd syndrome.FireTheJanitor said:@Fishpo31 @chuck @HFNY
Good chit fellas, you are my go to off-season news and analysis source at this point. You guys are pretty fucking good at breaking down the different tradeoffs in roster construction and club strategy. I’m
not a big enough baseball/Ms guy to know what else is out there covering the ins and outs, but I pop on here every couple days to catch up and feel like I learn something almost every time.
There are other guys who only stop in once in a while who know the game at least as well as me and follow just as closely too. They just don't lead boring enough lives to be in a Mariners thread in mid December.
I'm glad you're into it. We're not a big group. -
How about the M's trade Marco back to the Cards along with $3 million in 2023 and $6 million in 2024 for Tyler O'Neill? As Divish said, it would be amazing to have Hans and Franz in LF.
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https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2022/12/19/23500662/seattle-mariners-spoiling-an-opportunity-not-their-fans-greedy-payroll-free-agency
The new Ms are still the old Ms. Boring. All I'm hearing from Dip is arrogance and excuse making.
They clawed their way into the playoffs with this roster, essentially, and with Texas still rebuilding. I don't think it will work this year. All of last year's playoff teams and contenders except Seattle have made moves to get better. Assuming improvement from young guys who have only one good, full year under their belts (or none, like Kelenic) is risky.
Of course this lineup can be good enough assuming repeat or better years from everyone but that's unlikely. Suarez is a good candidate to drop off, as are Julio, Gilbert, Kirby and Raleigh. You can't count the bullpen holding so many one run leads or ties like they did to win key series against Cleveland, the Yanks and Atlanta last year. You're not likely to go 7-1 against a playoff team like Toronto.
They haven't improved much on paper while a lot of other teams have. I see them as a fringe playoff contender with this lineup unless a couple of pitchers are in the Cy Young conversation and someone like France or Kelenic puts it together for a whole season.
