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Housing market crash – why hasn’t it happened yet?
Comments
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If my house drops by 20% the houses in Texas probably drop by 40%. Granted, that wipes out a large chunk of my equity, but I will take the much cheaper housing in another state as a consolation prize. Local realtors I know here still say no correction until 2023 or 2024.
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I have been telling myself this very thing lately. It helps me justify my procrastination.doogie said:Doesn’t it make better financial sense to wait for rates to rise and pay Much a lower price on the house so you can take advantage of the refi market down the road when rates fall into negative territory?
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@pawz true?BleachedAnusDawg said:If my house drops by 20% the houses in Texas probably drop by 40%. Granted, that wipes out a large chunk of my equity, but I will take the much cheaper housing in another state as a consolation prize. Local realtors I know here still say no correction until 2023 or 2024.
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True. Island are different. Go look at home prices in Key West before the recession, after the recession, and now. They never really went down. They just leveled off in 2008 for a bit, then started climbing again.EwaDawg said:doogie said
doogie said:"Doesn’t it make better financial sense to wait for rates to rise and pay Much a lower price on the house so you can take advantage of the refi market down the road when rates fall into negative territory?"
In Hawaii prices will not dip to your target point. I assume it is the same in a few other places. Seattle comes to mind, as well.
The tequilla version is provided below:
Oahu is different because it is an island. You can't move to the suburbs and buy cheaper. Well you can, but it is still not cheap enough.
Acreage is naturally scarce and there are way too many artificial limits on development.
Prices occasionally drop but not far and not often. (yes, I've been underwater at one point on all but one of my properties). The cash purchase was never underwater. Go figure.
The big dip that you are waiting for occurred twenty years ago (or twenty years before that) - likely never to be seen again.
A lot of creepy rich people have vacation/second homes here which props up prices in what should be down times.
Makes sense to leverage to the hilt when you have a down payment and buy as much as you can and rent them out to the pours who will eventually move (back) to the mainland because of the cost of living. (you can't ignore the ESPPs or IRAs or 401ks but, do invest the leftovers and bonuses in real estate.)
Its a good plan until, ya know, a pandemic hits. And renters can't be evicted.
Might be time to sell or at least consider it.
As you age equity seems to magically appear. -
Huh? Texas has a ton of land and cheap labor...because of that prices here have gone up but not to the extreme of the coasts. No clue how they could fall 40%*BleachedAnusDawg said:If my house drops by 20% the houses in Texas probably drop by 40%. Granted, that wipes out a large chunk of my equity, but I will take the much cheaper housing in another state as a consolation prize. Local realtors I know here still say no correction until 2023 or 2024.
*Some exclusive areas like Rice Village and River Oaks in Houston being the exception...
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When credit dries up, prices will fall. Period.
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When credit dries up, prices will fall. Period.
The American, or the Banana Republican, consumer makes purchase decisions almost entirely based on the "payments" mentality. How long it will take to pay it off, if ever, is not how most people go about it making a buy decision.
So I agree with you but would expect them to drop not just when borrowing tightens up; but when it gets more expensive and people can't choke down the monthly. -
Guys: By 2030 nobody will own anything (except the overlords) and everyone will be safe, happy and prosperous. Haven't you heard?
We are executing on the dream of Collectivism. Where everyone is equal and work is pleasant, simple and fulfilling.
And with any luck, I'll be feeding worms and avoiding the entire shit-show before it explodes and melts down into a sea of dead dreams and bodies. -
The American, or the Banana Republican, consumer makes purchase decisions almost entirely based on the "payments" mentality. How long it will take to pay it off, if ever, is not how most people go about it making a buy decision.creepycoug said:When credit dries up, prices will fall. Period.
So I agree with you but would expect them to drop not just when borrowing tightens up; but when it gets more expensive and people can't choke down the monthly.
Don’t forget all the easy credit currently available to all the Pretend real estate Investors out there as well as the warehouse credit lines to the Mortgage companies.
