Housing market crash – why hasn’t it happened yet?

Doog_de_Jour

YellowSnow said:

PurpleThrobber said:

YellowSnow said:

RaceBannon said:

Our Seattle home topped out at 525 K in 2004. Bought it for 90

Sold in 2011 or 348K

Paper is paper. It is worth what someone will pay when you want or need to sell

Right now it is positive. Supply is low and people want to flee to the burbs or another state

But you really can't ignore what is out there. People thought it was insane to short the "good" mortgage securities in 07 until it made billionaires out of the guys that did

I'm not rooting for a collapse just learning from history

I think we're in some sort of a bubble nationally. And the potential for foreclosures data is very much concerning.

I placed my bet, personally, on more and more people having some sort of virtual hustle and PDX, SEA, SFO, LAX, etc. continuing to suck ass. My market took a 50% haircut in 2008. One of the worst in the US. Could it happen like that again? Sure, anything is possible. More likely I think is 10% to 20% if things got really bad with the US economy as a whole.

The major markets are going to get whacked. Might be a good tim to pick something up on the cheap before the occupied Chinese state takes over and the new overlords seek housing (Hi OBK).

The second tier cities (in the NW, Spokane/CDA, Bend, Missoula, Tri Cities, a little bit of Boise - though that's getting played out) are blowing up. If you can swing a hammer or do anything related to home construction, you'll have as much work as you'd like. It's essentially name your price if you want to see your home.

Pray for Yella. This kitchen remodel will probably lead to divorce.

At last, that blonde Amazonian goddess will be MINE!

DerekJohnson

YellowSnow said:

RaceBannon said:

We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever

Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley

I don’t know. My 1927 Seattle house was a piece of shit. My 2003 Wakanda house probably is too. At least I live in a desert and there’s only so much water can do to fuck me.

YellowSnow

DerekJohnson said:

YellowSnow said:

RaceBannon said:

We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever

Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley

I don’t know. My 1927 Seattle house was a piece of shit. My 2003 Wakanda house probably is too. At least I live in a desert and there’s only so much water can do to fuck me.

The Jif that keeps giving. Buy in New Mexico. That dry climate is good for houses.

DerekJohnson

YellowSnow said:

DerekJohnson said:

YellowSnow said:

RaceBannon said:

We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever

Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley

I don’t know. My 1927 Seattle house was a piece of shit. My 2003 Wakanda house probably is too. At least I live in a desert and there’s only so much water can do to fuck me.

The Jif that keeps giving. Buy in New Mexico. That dry climate is good for houses.

I have an overall plan of which I will tell you privately sometime in the coming weeks

YellowSnow

DerekJohnson said:

YellowSnow said:

DerekJohnson said:

YellowSnow said:

RaceBannon said:

We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever

Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley

I don’t know. My 1927 Seattle house was a piece of shit. My 2003 Wakanda house probably is too. At least I live in a desert and there’s only so much water can do to fuck me.

The Jif that keeps giving. Buy in New Mexico. That dry climate is good for houses.

I have an overall plan of which I will tell you privately sometime in the coming weeks

#politburosneakpreview

TurdBomber

RaceBannon said:

We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever

Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley

True Story: Former Cali GC neighbor of mine didn't know how to splice Romex into Knob & Tube.

He informed me of this after disconnecting every wiring nut in the junction box. Took me about 2 hours to reconnect it all and splice into the proper wires.

He later built a wall for me without laying out any dimensions, and when it was done, he said, "Okay. Ready to Rock!"

I tore the whole fucking wall down and rebuilt it after he left. Could not believe the shit quality that hack thought was great.

YellowSnow said:

DerekJohnson said:

YellowSnow said:

RaceBannon said:

We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever

Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley

I don’t know. My 1927 Seattle house was a piece of shit. My 2003 Wakanda house probably is too. At least I live in a desert and there’s only so much water can do to fuck me.

The Jif that keeps giving. Buy in New Mexico. That dry climate is good for houses.

New Mexico? Pass.

EwaDawg

Well. It is coming. . . . . .Hurry up and buy before rates increase. . . . . . I'm just saying. . . .

https://www.khon2.com/local-news/single-family-home-listings-reach-record-low-on-oahu/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=referral&fbclid=IwAR3tUMmxRlVmxle7GsswKkh8M0OO4KgJ_-UnbyvRs1huYdre9u42tbYML70

doogie

Doesn’t it make better financial sense to wait for rates to rise and pay Much a lower price on the house so you can take advantage of the refi market down the road when rates fall into negative territory?

EwaDawg

doogie said

doogie said:

"Doesn’t it make better financial sense to wait for rates to rise and pay Much a lower price on the house so you can take advantage of the refi market down the road when rates fall into negative territory?"

In Hawaii prices will not dip to your target point. I assume it is the same in a few other places. Seattle comes to mind, as well.


The tequilla version is provided below:

















Oahu is different because it is an island. You can't move to the suburbs and buy cheaper. Well you can, but it is still not cheap enough.

Acreage is naturally scarce and there are way too many artificial limits on development.

Prices occasionally drop but not far and not often. (yes, I've been underwater at one point on all but one of my properties). The cash purchase was never underwater. Go figure.

The big dip that you are waiting for occurred twenty years ago (or twenty years before that) - likely never to be seen again.

A lot of creepy rich people have vacation/second homes here which props up prices in what should be down times.

Makes sense to leverage to the hilt when you have a down payment and buy as much as you can and rent them out to the pours who will eventually move (back) to the mainland because of the cost of living. (you can't ignore the ESPPs or IRAs or 401ks but, do invest the leftovers and bonuses in real estate.)

Its a good plan until, ya know, a pandemic hits. And renters can't be evicted.

Might be time to sell or at least consider it.

As you age equity seems to magically appear.

doogie

and there are way too many artificial limits on development... stood out