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Housing market crash – why hasn’t it happened yet?

DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 60,548
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edited May 2022 in Tug Tavern
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    RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 102,286
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    And the answer is obvious. Moritoriums
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    1to392831weretaken1to392831weretaken Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 7,350
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    It's because my remodel isn't yet 99% finished. Duh.
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    FireCohenFireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
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    Uh, I’m not playing this. The dude in the preview image looks like some creeper that going to expose himself to some female jogger in the park.

    He will disappoint at least it would have Ben interesting
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    BleachedAnusDawgBleachedAnusDawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 10,695
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    Supply and demand. There is nowhere near a sufficient level of supply out there right now. Even if demand dropped by 50% right now there still would not be enough supply available to satisfy the remaining demand and cause a big correction in the market.

    Is there any data on pent up numbers of foreclosures waiting to happen? I haven't heard of anything like that on the horizon. If homeowners aren't at risk of foreclosure I don't see how there's any large-scale increase in supply on the horizon.
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    RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 102,286
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    Supply and demand. There is nowhere near a sufficient level of supply out there right now. Even if demand dropped by 50% right now there still would not be enough supply available to satisfy the remaining demand and cause a big correction in the market.

    Is there any data on pent up numbers of foreclosures waiting to happen? I haven't heard of anything like that on the horizon. If homeowners aren't at risk of foreclosure I don't see how there's any large-scale increase in supply on the horizon.

    That data is on this board and it isn't pretty
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    BleachedAnusDawgBleachedAnusDawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 10,695
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    Supply and demand. There is nowhere near a sufficient level of supply out there right now. Even if demand dropped by 50% right now there still would not be enough supply available to satisfy the remaining demand and cause a big correction in the market.

    Is there any data on pent up numbers of foreclosures waiting to happen? I haven't heard of anything like that on the horizon. If homeowners aren't at risk of foreclosure I don't see how there's any large-scale increase in supply on the horizon.

    That data is on this board and it isn't pretty
    Pretty low of you to imply that all of the posters here are poor, gas-pumpers and can't afford their mortgages, Race.
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    RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 102,286
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    It's around 23 million in some sort of behind payment situation and growing. Renters or owner and of course renters effect owners eventually

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    RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 102,286
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    Our Seattle home topped out at 525 K in 2004. Bought it for 90

    Sold in 2011 or 348K

    Paper is paper. It is worth what someone will pay when you want or need to sell

    Right now it is positive. Supply is low and people want to flee to the burbs or another state

    But you really can't ignore what is out there. People thought it was insane to short the "good" mortgage securities in 07 until it made billionaires out of the guys that did

    I'm not rooting for a collapse just learning from history
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    YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 34,258
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    Our Seattle home topped out at 525 K in 2004. Bought it for 90

    Sold in 2011 or 348K

    Paper is paper. It is worth what someone will pay when you want or need to sell

    Right now it is positive. Supply is low and people want to flee to the burbs or another state

    But you really can't ignore what is out there. People thought it was insane to short the "good" mortgage securities in 07 until it made billionaires out of the guys that did

    I'm not rooting for a collapse just learning from history

    I think we're in some sort of a bubble nationally. And the potential for foreclosures data is very much concerning.

    I placed my bet, personally, on more and more people having some sort of virtual hustle and PDX, SEA, SFO, LAX, etc. continuing to suck ass. My market took a 50% haircut in 2008. One of the worst in the US. Could it happen like that again? Sure, anything is possible. More likely I think is 10% to 20% if things got really bad with the US economy as a whole.
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    KaepskneeKaepsknee Member Posts: 14,753
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    Supply and demand. There is nowhere near a sufficient level of supply out there right now. Even if demand dropped by 50% right now there still would not be enough supply available to satisfy the remaining demand and cause a big correction in the market.

    Is there any data on pent up numbers of foreclosures waiting to happen? I haven't heard of anything like that on the horizon. If homeowners aren't at risk of foreclosure I don't see how there's any large-scale increase in supply on the horizon.

    There isn’t any data because, number one, forbearance and number 2, banks don’t want that info out there.
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    PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Member Posts: 42,218
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    Our Seattle home topped out at 525 K in 2004. Bought it for 90

    Sold in 2011 or 348K

    Paper is paper. It is worth what someone will pay when you want or need to sell

    Right now it is positive. Supply is low and people want to flee to the burbs or another state

    But you really can't ignore what is out there. People thought it was insane to short the "good" mortgage securities in 07 until it made billionaires out of the guys that did

    I'm not rooting for a collapse just learning from history

    I think we're in some sort of a bubble nationally. And the potential for foreclosures data is very much concerning.

    I placed my bet, personally, on more and more people having some sort of virtual hustle and PDX, SEA, SFO, LAX, etc. continuing to suck ass. My market took a 50% haircut in 2008. One of the worst in the US. Could it happen like that again? Sure, anything is possible. More likely I think is 10% to 20% if things got really bad with the US economy as a whole.
    The major markets are going to get whacked. Might be a good tim to pick something up on the cheap before the occupied Chinese state takes over and the new overlords seek housing (Hi OBK).

    The second tier cities (in the NW, Spokane/CDA, Bend, Missoula, Tri Cities, a little bit of Boise - though that's getting played out) are blowing up. If you can swing a hammer or do anything related to home construction, you'll have as much work as you'd like. It's essentially name your price if you want to see your home.



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    RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 102,286
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    We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever

    Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley
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    YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 34,258
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    We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever

    Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley

    I don’t know. My 1927 Seattle house was a piece of shit. My 2003 Wakanda house probably is too. At least I live in a desert and there’s only so much water can do to fuck me.
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