Housing market crash – why hasn’t it happened yet?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EV_kOs-YU3UComments
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Uh, I’m not playing this. The dude in the preview image looks like some creeper that going to expose himself to some female jogger in the park.
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And the answer is obvious. Moritoriums
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It's because my remodel isn't yet 99% finished. Duh.
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He will disappoint at least it would have Ben interestingDoog_de_Jour said:Uh, I’m not playing this. The dude in the preview image looks like some creeper that going to expose himself to some female jogger in the park.
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Doog_de_Jour said:
Uh, I’m not playing this. The dude in the preview image looks like some creeper that going to expose himself to some female jogger in the park.
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I can confirm two things. First, that's me. Second, I did expose myself to a female jogger.Doog_de_Jour said:Uh, I’m not playing this. The dude in the preview image looks like some creeper that going to expose himself to some female jogger in the park.
I cannot be blamed for this. -
It's called positioning yourself in the marketplaceDoog_de_Jour said:Uh, I’m not playing this. The dude in the preview image looks like some creeper that going to expose himself to some female jogger in the park.
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Supply and demand. There is nowhere near a sufficient level of supply out there right now. Even if demand dropped by 50% right now there still would not be enough supply available to satisfy the remaining demand and cause a big correction in the market.
Is there any data on pent up numbers of foreclosures waiting to happen? I haven't heard of anything like that on the horizon. If homeowners aren't at risk of foreclosure I don't see how there's any large-scale increase in supply on the horizon. -
That data is on this board and it isn't prettyBleachedAnusDawg said:Supply and demand. There is nowhere near a sufficient level of supply out there right now. Even if demand dropped by 50% right now there still would not be enough supply available to satisfy the remaining demand and cause a big correction in the market.
Is there any data on pent up numbers of foreclosures waiting to happen? I haven't heard of anything like that on the horizon. If homeowners aren't at risk of foreclosure I don't see how there's any large-scale increase in supply on the horizon. -
Pretty low of you to imply that all of the posters here are poor, gas-pumpers and can't afford their mortgages, Race.RaceBannon said:
That data is on this board and it isn't prettyBleachedAnusDawg said:Supply and demand. There is nowhere near a sufficient level of supply out there right now. Even if demand dropped by 50% right now there still would not be enough supply available to satisfy the remaining demand and cause a big correction in the market.
Is there any data on pent up numbers of foreclosures waiting to happen? I haven't heard of anything like that on the horizon. If homeowners aren't at risk of foreclosure I don't see how there's any large-scale increase in supply on the horizon. -
It's around 23 million in some sort of behind payment situation and growing. Renters or owner and of course renters effect owners eventually
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Fuck all you mother fuckers and your negativity! My Zestimate is up $125K in 7 month. Think I'm gonna plant some tulips this spring in the front.
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Our Seattle home topped out at 525 K in 2004. Bought it for 90
Sold in 2011 or 348K
Paper is paper. It is worth what someone will pay when you want or need to sell
Right now it is positive. Supply is low and people want to flee to the burbs or another state
But you really can't ignore what is out there. People thought it was insane to short the "good" mortgage securities in 07 until it made billionaires out of the guys that did
I'm not rooting for a collapse just learning from history -
I think we're in some sort of a bubble nationally. And the potential for foreclosures data is very much concerning.RaceBannon said:Our Seattle home topped out at 525 K in 2004. Bought it for 90
Sold in 2011 or 348K
Paper is paper. It is worth what someone will pay when you want or need to sell
Right now it is positive. Supply is low and people want to flee to the burbs or another state
But you really can't ignore what is out there. People thought it was insane to short the "good" mortgage securities in 07 until it made billionaires out of the guys that did
I'm not rooting for a collapse just learning from history
I placed my bet, personally, on more and more people having some sort of virtual hustle and PDX, SEA, SFO, LAX, etc. continuing to suck ass. My market took a 50% haircut in 2008. One of the worst in the US. Could it happen like that again? Sure, anything is possible. More likely I think is 10% to 20% if things got really bad with the US economy as a whole. -
There isn’t any data because, number one, forbearance and number 2, banks don’t want that info out there.BleachedAnusDawg said:Supply and demand. There is nowhere near a sufficient level of supply out there right now. Even if demand dropped by 50% right now there still would not be enough supply available to satisfy the remaining demand and cause a big correction in the market.
Is there any data on pent up numbers of foreclosures waiting to happen? I haven't heard of anything like that on the horizon. If homeowners aren't at risk of foreclosure I don't see how there's any large-scale increase in supply on the horizon. -
The major markets are going to get whacked. Might be a good tim to pick something up on the cheap before the occupied Chinese state takes over and the new overlords seek housing (Hi OBK).YellowSnow said:
I think we're in some sort of a bubble nationally. And the potential for foreclosures data is very much concerning.RaceBannon said:Our Seattle home topped out at 525 K in 2004. Bought it for 90
Sold in 2011 or 348K
Paper is paper. It is worth what someone will pay when you want or need to sell
Right now it is positive. Supply is low and people want to flee to the burbs or another state
But you really can't ignore what is out there. People thought it was insane to short the "good" mortgage securities in 07 until it made billionaires out of the guys that did
I'm not rooting for a collapse just learning from history
I placed my bet, personally, on more and more people having some sort of virtual hustle and PDX, SEA, SFO, LAX, etc. continuing to suck ass. My market took a 50% haircut in 2008. One of the worst in the US. Could it happen like that again? Sure, anything is possible. More likely I think is 10% to 20% if things got really bad with the US economy as a whole.
The second tier cities (in the NW, Spokane/CDA, Bend, Missoula, Tri Cities, a little bit of Boise - though that's getting played out) are blowing up. If you can swing a hammer or do anything related to home construction, you'll have as much work as you'd like. It's essentially name your price if you want to see your home.
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Everywhere. I've said it before, but $5600 bid for a plumbing job that took me (a plumbing moron) eight hours and cost $200 in fittings, pipe, tools, and solvent. $29 for a 2x8 that cost $10 four years ago. $30 for a sheet of OSB that cost $12 four years ago. My brother just had his house re-sided, and it cost $80K. That was the lowest of five bids. Some friends of mine had a 600 square foot ground level addition built onto their house, and it cost $275K. Unreal.PurpleThrobber said:
The major markets are going to get whacked. Might be a good tim to pick something up on the cheap before the occupied Chinese state takes over and the new overlords seek housing (Hi OBK).YellowSnow said:
I think we're in some sort of a bubble nationally. And the potential for foreclosures data is very much concerning.RaceBannon said:Our Seattle home topped out at 525 K in 2004. Bought it for 90
Sold in 2011 or 348K
Paper is paper. It is worth what someone will pay when you want or need to sell
Right now it is positive. Supply is low and people want to flee to the burbs or another state
But you really can't ignore what is out there. People thought it was insane to short the "good" mortgage securities in 07 until it made billionaires out of the guys that did
I'm not rooting for a collapse just learning from history
I placed my bet, personally, on more and more people having some sort of virtual hustle and PDX, SEA, SFO, LAX, etc. continuing to suck ass. My market took a 50% haircut in 2008. One of the worst in the US. Could it happen like that again? Sure, anything is possible. More likely I think is 10% to 20% if things got really bad with the US economy as a whole.
The second tier cities (in the NW, Spokane/CDA, Bend, Missoula, Tri Cities, a little bit of Boise - though that's getting played out) are blowing up. If you can swing a hammer or do anything related to home construction, you'll have as much work as you'd like. It's essentially name your price if you want to see your home.
What's saddest is that builders are naming their price and doing shitty work, building houses that will rot in under a decade. When I bought my house, it backed up to thousands of acres of woods (Galbraith Mountain mountain biking system, actually), but since then, two different developments have gone up up the hill to either side, eventually connecting together in the middle (the house on 10 acres behind us will eventually sell and get developed, and we'll be completely surrounded by suburbia, which is sad). Anyway, I walk or bike up that hill, looking at these McMansions as they're being built, and I just shake my head. Windows aren't taped and flashed properly, neither are doors, cheap materials, etc. Sign in the front lawn says "sale pending" before they're even built, and they're going for three-quarters of a million. Very few builders actually take the time to keep up with advances in construction techniques and are doing the same shitty stuff that led to houses built in the 90s just falling apart a decade later. -
We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever
Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley -
Pray for Yella. This kitchen remodel will probably lead to divorce.PurpleThrobber said:
The major markets are going to get whacked. Might be a good tim to pick something up on the cheap before the occupied Chinese state takes over and the new overlords seek housing (Hi OBK).YellowSnow said:
I think we're in some sort of a bubble nationally. And the potential for foreclosures data is very much concerning.RaceBannon said:Our Seattle home topped out at 525 K in 2004. Bought it for 90
Sold in 2011 or 348K
Paper is paper. It is worth what someone will pay when you want or need to sell
Right now it is positive. Supply is low and people want to flee to the burbs or another state
But you really can't ignore what is out there. People thought it was insane to short the "good" mortgage securities in 07 until it made billionaires out of the guys that did
I'm not rooting for a collapse just learning from history
I placed my bet, personally, on more and more people having some sort of virtual hustle and PDX, SEA, SFO, LAX, etc. continuing to suck ass. My market took a 50% haircut in 2008. One of the worst in the US. Could it happen like that again? Sure, anything is possible. More likely I think is 10% to 20% if things got really bad with the US economy as a whole.
The second tier cities (in the NW, Spokane/CDA, Bend, Missoula, Tri Cities, a little bit of Boise - though that's getting played out) are blowing up. If you can swing a hammer or do anything related to home construction, you'll have as much work as you'd like. It's essentially name your price if you want to see your home. -
I don’t know. My 1927 Seattle house was a piece of shit. My 2003 Wakanda house probably is too. At least I live in a desert and there’s only so much water can do to fuck me.RaceBannon said:We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever
Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley -
YellowSnow said:
Pray for Yella. This kitchen remodel will probably lead to divorce.PurpleThrobber said:
The major markets are going to get whacked. Might be a good tim to pick something up on the cheap before the occupied Chinese state takes over and the new overlords seek housing (Hi OBK).YellowSnow said:
I think we're in some sort of a bubble nationally. And the potential for foreclosures data is very much concerning.RaceBannon said:Our Seattle home topped out at 525 K in 2004. Bought it for 90
Sold in 2011 or 348K
Paper is paper. It is worth what someone will pay when you want or need to sell
Right now it is positive. Supply is low and people want to flee to the burbs or another state
But you really can't ignore what is out there. People thought it was insane to short the "good" mortgage securities in 07 until it made billionaires out of the guys that did
I'm not rooting for a collapse just learning from history
I placed my bet, personally, on more and more people having some sort of virtual hustle and PDX, SEA, SFO, LAX, etc. continuing to suck ass. My market took a 50% haircut in 2008. One of the worst in the US. Could it happen like that again? Sure, anything is possible. More likely I think is 10% to 20% if things got really bad with the US economy as a whole.
The second tier cities (in the NW, Spokane/CDA, Bend, Missoula, Tri Cities, a little bit of Boise - though that's getting played out) are blowing up. If you can swing a hammer or do anything related to home construction, you'll have as much work as you'd like. It's essentially name your price if you want to see your home.
At last, that blonde Amazonian goddess will be MINE! -
YellowSnow said:
I don’t know. My 1927 Seattle house was a piece of shit. My 2003 Wakanda house probably is too. At least I live in a desert and there’s only so much water can do to fuck me.RaceBannon said:We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever
Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley
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The Jif that keeps giving. Buy in New Mexico. That dry climate is good for houses.DerekJohnson said:YellowSnow said:
I don’t know. My 1927 Seattle house was a piece of shit. My 2003 Wakanda house probably is too. At least I live in a desert and there’s only so much water can do to fuck me.RaceBannon said:We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever
Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley -
I have an overall plan of which I will tell you privately sometime in the coming weeksYellowSnow said:
The Jif that keeps giving. Buy in New Mexico. That dry climate is good for houses.DerekJohnson said:YellowSnow said:
I don’t know. My 1927 Seattle house was a piece of shit. My 2003 Wakanda house probably is too. At least I live in a desert and there’s only so much water can do to fuck me.RaceBannon said:We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever
Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley -
#politburosneakpreviewDerekJohnson said:
I have an overall plan of which I will tell you privately sometime in the coming weeksYellowSnow said:
The Jif that keeps giving. Buy in New Mexico. That dry climate is good for houses.DerekJohnson said:YellowSnow said:
I don’t know. My 1927 Seattle house was a piece of shit. My 2003 Wakanda house probably is too. At least I live in a desert and there’s only so much water can do to fuck me.RaceBannon said:We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever
Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley -
True Story: Former Cali GC neighbor of mine didn't know how to splice Romex into Knob & Tube.RaceBannon said:We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever
Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley
He informed me of this after disconnecting every wiring nut in the junction box. Took me about 2 hours to reconnect it all and splice into the proper wires.
He later built a wall for me without laying out any dimensions, and when it was done, he said, "Okay. Ready to Rock!"
I tore the whole fucking wall down and rebuilt it after he left. Could not believe the shit quality that hack thought was great.YellowSnow said:
The Jif that keeps giving. Buy in New Mexico. That dry climate is good for houses.DerekJohnson said:YellowSnow said:
I don’t know. My 1927 Seattle house was a piece of shit. My 2003 Wakanda house probably is too. At least I live in a desert and there’s only so much water can do to fuck me.RaceBannon said:We rent a 2007 California special. The worst construction ever
Folks that were here back in the early oughts say the sound of nail guns echoed throughout the valley
New Mexico? Pass. -
Well. It is coming. . . . . .Hurry up and buy before rates increase. . . . . . I'm just saying. . . .
https://www.khon2.com/local-news/single-family-home-listings-reach-record-low-on-oahu/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=referral&fbclid=IwAR3tUMmxRlVmxle7GsswKkh8M0OO4KgJ_-UnbyvRs1huYdre9u42tbYML70 -
Doesn’t it make better financial sense to wait for rates to rise and pay Much a lower price on the house so you can take advantage of the refi market down the road when rates fall into negative territory?
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doogie saiddoogie said:
"Doesn’t it make better financial sense to wait for rates to rise and pay Much a lower price on the house so you can take advantage of the refi market down the road when rates fall into negative territory?"
In Hawaii prices will not dip to your target point. I assume it is the same in a few other places. Seattle comes to mind, as well.
The tequilla version is provided below:
Oahu is different because it is an island. You can't move to the suburbs and buy cheaper. Well you can, but it is still not cheap enough.
Acreage is naturally scarce and there are way too many artificial limits on development.
Prices occasionally drop but not far and not often. (yes, I've been underwater at one point on all but one of my properties). The cash purchase was never underwater. Go figure.
The big dip that you are waiting for occurred twenty years ago (or twenty years before that) - likely never to be seen again.
A lot of creepy rich people have vacation/second homes here which props up prices in what should be down times.
Makes sense to leverage to the hilt when you have a down payment and buy as much as you can and rent them out to the pours who will eventually move (back) to the mainland because of the cost of living. (you can't ignore the ESPPs or IRAs or 401ks but, do invest the leftovers and bonuses in real estate.)
Its a good plan until, ya know, a pandemic hits. And renters can't be evicted.
Might be time to sell or at least consider it.
As you age equity seems to magically appear.
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and there are way too many artificial limits on development... stood out
