Latest polls say Landslide!

doogie · November 2020

for Biden...

No matter the polling method Biden is ahead

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden#no-matter-the-polling-method-biden-is-ahead

GrundleStiltzkin · November 2020

If he’s going to win, that’s the best way. Get it over with Tuesday night. Brush your teeth & move on.

Dude61 · November 2020

Trump is so far behind, it reminds me of the night he won the election in 2016.

GrundleStiltzkin · November 2020

Fuck me

https://twitter.com/_StephanieMyers/status/1323302669289627648

Swaye · November 2020

I gotta admit, even as a Trump voter, it's looking pretty grim.

RaceBannon · November 2020

Exit polls tomorrow confirm the Biden landslide

#Script

PurpleThrobber · November 2020

Watched Chuck fucking Todd this morning with his magic punch board predicting a MASSIVE Biden landslide, winning FL, winning GA, winning AZ, winning MI and PA.

Then he walked it all the way back to a tie - in which case SCOTUS! PANIC!!! TRUMP WON'T LEAVE!!!

These guys are so in the bag it's not even funny.

PurpleThrobber · November 2020

GrundleStiltzkin said:
Fuck me
https://twitter.com/_StephanieMyers/status/1323302669289627648

And WOOD Stephanie Myers.

brb, yo.

GreenRiverGatorz · November 2020

The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to ~~get their guys in~~ improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.

RoadTrip · November 2020

Swaye said:
I gotta admit, even as a Trump voter, it's looking pretty grim.

Why? Your eyes don't lie to you at least what you can actually see (massive crowds no Biden support anywhere). EVERYONE is telling you Trump is going down but is that what you see? The only way Trump loses this is if the RATs and media lie cheat and steal AGAIN.

NorthwestFresh · November 2020

GreenRiverGatorz said:
The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to ~~get their guys in~~ improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.

I don’t know. Rasmussen and Trafalgar were mostly accurate in 2016 and are showing completely different results than that mainstream media poles.

Polling seems like a crapshoot anymore, and the Democrats are in a lather today talking about Trump declaring victory tomorrow night. Seems like an odd talking point the day before a “landslide” for Biden.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-leading-swing-states-in-us-election-poll/2028249

ANKARA

US President Donald Trump is ahead of his Democratic contender Joe Biden in some key swing states in the upcoming 2020 presidential election on Tuesday, according to a polling company.

Trafalgar Group, which predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, shows he is leading Biden in many swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Arizona, unlike most other nationwide polls that predict a Biden victory.

The Atlanta-based opinion polling and survey company's latest poll indicates Trump is leading Biden by 2.7 points in the state of Florida, while the New York Times' poll projects a 3-point win by the former vice president for the 29 electoral votes in Sunshine State.

In Pennsylvania, Trafalgar Group shows a 0.8 point lead for Trump, while a poll by ABC News and the Washington Post predicts a 7-point win for Biden for the 20 electoral votes in Keystone State.

Trafalgar Group's poll in Michigan also favors Trump by 2.5 points, whereas research firm Ipsos anticipates a 10-point win by Biden for 16 electoral votes in the Great Lake State.

The firm's latest poll in North Carolina forecasts 2.1 points of lead by Trump over his opponent for 15 electoral votes in Old North State, while think tank Data for Progress shows a 2-point lead by Biden.

Trafalgar Group's poll in Arizona also favors Trump by 2.5 points against the New York Times' 6-point lead by Biden for 11 electoral votes in the Grand Canyon State.

In Wisconsin and Minnesota, however, the company sees Biden ahead of Trump, for the 10 electoral votes in each of these states.

Trafalgar Group explains delivering its polling questionnaires in a mix of different methods, such as live calling, integrated voice response, text messages, emails, and two other proprietary digital methods they say they do not share publicly.

"The firm’s polls last one to two minutes and are designed to quickly get opinions from those who would not typically participate in political polls," according to Robert Cahaly, senior strategist and pollster.

PurpleThrobber · November 2020

GreenRiverGatorz said:
The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to ~~get their guys in~~ improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.

It's pretty fucking simple. Phone rings - number you don't recognize but answer anyway. They ask who you're voting for.

Given the bullshit that Antifa and BLM has caused this summer, are you even going to give them any HINT that you might be voting for Trump? If you have my phone number and how I'm voting - you pretty well have all you need to show up on my doorstep, ruin my business, destroy my property.

Fuck, no I"m not answering the question. I'm probably not even answering the phone. So you're naturally going to get more Biden people picking up and blabbing how they plan to vote.

GreenRiverGatorz · November 2020

PurpleThrobber said:

GreenRiverGatorz said:
The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to ~~get their guys in~~ improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.
It's pretty fucking simple. Phone rings - number you don't recognize but answer anyway. They ask who you're voting for.

Given the bullshit that Antifa and BLM has caused this summer, are you even going to give them any HINT that you might be voting for Trump? If you have my phone number and how I'm voting - you pretty well have all you need to show up on my doorstep, ruin my business, destroy my property.

Fuck, no I"m not answering the question. I'm probably not even answering the phone. So you're naturally going to get more Biden people picking up and blabbing how they plan to vote.

To the extent that this dynamic is true, it's exactly what the pollsters are trying to build in to their sample weighting. That and 1000 others factors. Naturally, you have to LIPO for the accuracy of that sample weighting.

PurpleThrobber · November 2020

GreenRiverGatorz said:

PurpleThrobber said:

GreenRiverGatorz said:
The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to ~~get their guys in~~ improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.
It's pretty fucking simple. Phone rings - number you don't recognize but answer anyway. They ask who you're voting for.

Given the bullshit that Antifa and BLM has caused this summer, are you even going to give them any HINT that you might be voting for Trump? If you have my phone number and how I'm voting - you pretty well have all you need to show up on my doorstep, ruin my business, destroy my property.

Fuck, no I"m not answering the question. I'm probably not even answering the phone. So you're naturally going to get more Biden people picking up and blabbing how they plan to vote.

To the extent that this dynamic is true, it's exactly what the pollsters are trying to build in to their sample weighting. That and 1000 others factors. Naturally, you have to LIPO for the accuracy of that sample weighting.

Pollster: Hey - can I ask you? If i pinky swear I won't leak your info to Antifa, will you tell me the truth?

Yeah....they are factoring that one. For sure.

Houhusky · November 2020

GreenRiverGatorz said:
The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to ~~get their guys in~~ improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.

I think that is a generous assumption. You dont get graphs like this unless there is something fucky going on with your pole...

They aren't (publicly) changing their methodology mid election season and the electorate isn't wildly swinging its opinion in 3-5 days. The only way you get this type of data generated is if you are trying to create a certain perception and still get close to the correct answer at the only time accuracy matters (Nov. 3rd).

It allows polestars to say dumb shit like "Texas is in play" or "Biden up 17 points over Trump in Wisconsin" for months up to the election (hype up the wave!) and then still get the poles into the margin of error on election night and claim the polls were "technically correct" on election night.

doogie · November 2020

Pollsters are paid to get the results their clients want to publicize. Period.

GreenRiverGatorz · November 2020

NorthwestFresh said:

GreenRiverGatorz said:
The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to ~~get their guys in~~ improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.
I don’t know. Rasmussen and Trafalgar were mostly accurate in 2016 and are showing completely different results than that mainstream media poles.

Polling seems like a crapshoot anymore, and the Democrats are in a lather today talking about Trump declaring victory tomorrow night. Seems like an odd talking point the day before a “landslide” for Biden.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-leading-swing-states-in-us-election-poll/2028249

ANKARA

US President Donald Trump is ahead of his Democratic contender Joe Biden in some key swing states in the upcoming 2020 presidential election on Tuesday, according to a polling company.

Trafalgar Group, which predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, shows he is leading Biden in many swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Arizona, unlike most other nationwide polls that predict a Biden victory.

The Atlanta-based opinion polling and survey company's latest poll indicates Trump is leading Biden by 2.7 points in the state of Florida, while the New York Times' poll projects a 3-point win by the former vice president for the 29 electoral votes in Sunshine State.

In Pennsylvania, Trafalgar Group shows a 0.8 point lead for Trump, while a poll by ABC News and the Washington Post predicts a 7-point win for Biden for the 20 electoral votes in Keystone State.

Trafalgar Group's poll in Michigan also favors Trump by 2.5 points, whereas research firm Ipsos anticipates a 10-point win by Biden for 16 electoral votes in the Great Lake State.

The firm's latest poll in North Carolina forecasts 2.1 points of lead by Trump over his opponent for 15 electoral votes in Old North State, while think tank Data for Progress shows a 2-point lead by Biden.

Trafalgar Group's poll in Arizona also favors Trump by 2.5 points against the New York Times' 6-point lead by Biden for 11 electoral votes in the Grand Canyon State.

In Wisconsin and Minnesota, however, the company sees Biden ahead of Trump, for the 10 electoral votes in each of these states.

Trafalgar Group explains delivering its polling questionnaires in a mix of different methods, such as live calling, integrated voice response, text messages, emails, and two other proprietary digital methods they say they do not share publicly.

"The firm’s polls last one to two minutes and are designed to quickly get opinions from those who would not typically participate in political polls," according to Robert Cahaly, senior strategist and pollster.

You're right regarding Trafalgar and Rasmussen, they're definitely the outliers in the sea of pollsters. Rasmussen has a solid track record, so I give them credence. Trafalgar is too Johnny come Lately for me to pay much attention to. If they can hit on '16 and '20 then I'll buy in.