Latest polls say Landslide!
Comments
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Can we? all admit the polling was fucking garbage solely meant to create a narrative.GreenRiverGatorz said:
To the extent that this dynamic is true, it's exactly what the pollsters are trying to build in to their sample weighting. That and 1000 others factors. Naturally, you have to LIPO for the accuracy of that sample weighting.PurpleThrobber said:
It's pretty fucking simple. Phone rings - number you don't recognize but answer anyway. They ask who you're voting for.GreenRiverGatorz said:The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to
get their guys inimprove the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.
All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.
Given the bullshit that Antifa and BLM has caused this summer, are you even going to give them any HINT that you might be voting for Trump? If you have my phone number and how I'm voting - you pretty well have all you need to show up on my doorstep, ruin my business, destroy my property.
Fuck, no I"m not answering the question. I'm probably not even answering the phone. So you're naturally going to get more Biden people picking up and blabbing how they plan to vote.
Even Fat Frank Luntz was apologizing today for it. -
Trafalgar nailed it
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Create a narrative and influence campaign donations. How many races that ended up being won by a the GOP or were way closer than the polling were impacted by the polling that said they were down double digits? If you think a candidate is really down 10 points are you going to be so quick to open up the check book?NorthwestFresh said:
Can we? all admit the polling was fucking garbage solely meant to create a narrative.GreenRiverGatorz said:
To the extent that this dynamic is true, it's exactly what the pollsters are trying to build in to their sample weighting. That and 1000 others factors. Naturally, you have to LIPO for the accuracy of that sample weighting.PurpleThrobber said:
It's pretty fucking simple. Phone rings - number you don't recognize but answer anyway. They ask who you're voting for.GreenRiverGatorz said:The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to
get their guys inimprove the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.
All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.
Given the bullshit that Antifa and BLM has caused this summer, are you even going to give them any HINT that you might be voting for Trump? If you have my phone number and how I'm voting - you pretty well have all you need to show up on my doorstep, ruin my business, destroy my property.
Fuck, no I"m not answering the question. I'm probably not even answering the phone. So you're naturally going to get more Biden people picking up and blabbing how they plan to vote.
Even Fat Frank Luntz was apologizing today for it.
