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Latest polls say Landslide!

doogie
doogie Member Posts: 15,072
in Tug Tavern
for Biden...

No matter the polling method Biden is ahead




https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden#no-matter-the-polling-method-biden-is-ahead
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  • Dude61
    Dude61 Member Posts: 1,254
    Trump is so far behind, it reminds me of the night he won the election in 2016.
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 115,552 Founders Club
    Exit polls tomorrow confirm the Biden landslide

    #Script
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  • PurpleThrobber
    PurpleThrobber Member Posts: 48,545 Standard Supporter
    Watched Chuck fucking Todd this morning with his magic punch board predicting a MASSIVE Biden landslide, winning FL, winning GA, winning AZ, winning MI and PA.

    Then he walked it all the way back to a tie - in which case SCOTUS! PANIC!!! TRUMP WON'T LEAVE!!!

    These guys are so in the bag it's not even funny.



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  • GreenRiverGatorz
    GreenRiverGatorz Member Posts: 10,168
    The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to get their guys in improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

    All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.
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  • RoadTrip
    RoadTrip Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 8,251 Founders Club
    Swaye said:

    I gotta admit, even as a Trump voter, it's looking pretty grim.

    Why? Your eyes don't lie to you at least what you can actually see (massive crowds no Biden support anywhere). EVERYONE is telling you Trump is going down but is that what you see? The only way Trump loses this is if the RATs and media lie cheat and steal AGAIN.
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  • NorthwestFresh
    NorthwestFresh Member Posts: 7,972
    edited November 2020
    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to get their guys in improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

    All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.

    I don’t know. Rasmussen and Trafalgar were mostly accurate in 2016 and are showing completely different results than that mainstream media poles.

    Polling seems like a crapshoot anymore, and the Democrats are in a lather today talking about Trump declaring victory tomorrow night. Seems like an odd talking point the day before a “landslide” for Biden.

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-leading-swing-states-in-us-election-poll/2028249

    ANKARA

    US President Donald Trump is ahead of his Democratic contender Joe Biden in some key swing states in the upcoming 2020 presidential election on Tuesday, according to a polling company.

    Trafalgar Group, which predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, shows he is leading Biden in many swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Arizona, unlike most other nationwide polls that predict a Biden victory.

    The Atlanta-based opinion polling and survey company's latest poll indicates Trump is leading Biden by 2.7 points in the state of Florida, while the New York Times' poll projects a 3-point win by the former vice president for the 29 electoral votes in Sunshine State.

    In Pennsylvania, Trafalgar Group shows a 0.8 point lead for Trump, while a poll by ABC News and the Washington Post predicts a 7-point win for Biden for the 20 electoral votes in Keystone State.

    Trafalgar Group's poll in Michigan also favors Trump by 2.5 points, whereas research firm Ipsos anticipates a 10-point win by Biden for 16 electoral votes in the Great Lake State.

    The firm's latest poll in North Carolina forecasts 2.1 points of lead by Trump over his opponent for 15 electoral votes in Old North State, while think tank Data for Progress shows a 2-point lead by Biden.

    Trafalgar Group's poll in Arizona also favors Trump by 2.5 points against the New York Times' 6-point lead by Biden for 11 electoral votes in the Grand Canyon State.

    In Wisconsin and Minnesota, however, the company sees Biden ahead of Trump, for the 10 electoral votes in each of these states.

    Trafalgar Group explains delivering its polling questionnaires in a mix of different methods, such as live calling, integrated voice response, text messages, emails, and two other proprietary digital methods they say they do not share publicly.

    "The firm’s polls last one to two minutes and are designed to quickly get opinions from those who would not typically participate in political polls," according to Robert Cahaly, senior strategist and pollster.
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