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Latest polls say Landslide!

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  • Dude61Dude61 Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 1,254 Swaye's Wigwam
    Trump is so far behind, it reminds me of the night he won the election in 2016.
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 106,842 Founders Club
    Exit polls tomorrow confirm the Biden landslide

    #Script
  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Member Posts: 44,536 Standard Supporter
    Watched Chuck fucking Todd this morning with his magic punch board predicting a MASSIVE Biden landslide, winning FL, winning GA, winning AZ, winning MI and PA.

    Then he walked it all the way back to a tie - in which case SCOTUS! PANIC!!! TRUMP WON'T LEAVE!!!

    These guys are so in the bag it's not even funny.



  • GreenRiverGatorzGreenRiverGatorz Member Posts: 10,165
    The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to get their guys in improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

    All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.
  • RoadTripRoadTrip Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 7,871 Founders Club
    Swaye said:

    I gotta admit, even as a Trump voter, it's looking pretty grim.

    Why? Your eyes don't lie to you at least what you can actually see (massive crowds no Biden support anywhere). EVERYONE is telling you Trump is going down but is that what you see? The only way Trump loses this is if the RATs and media lie cheat and steal AGAIN.
  • NorthwestFreshNorthwestFresh Member Posts: 7,972
    edited November 2020

    The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to get their guys in improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

    All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.

    I don’t know. Rasmussen and Trafalgar were mostly accurate in 2016 and are showing completely different results than that mainstream media poles.

    Polling seems like a crapshoot anymore, and the Democrats are in a lather today talking about Trump declaring victory tomorrow night. Seems like an odd talking point the day before a “landslide” for Biden.

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-leading-swing-states-in-us-election-poll/2028249

    ANKARA

    US President Donald Trump is ahead of his Democratic contender Joe Biden in some key swing states in the upcoming 2020 presidential election on Tuesday, according to a polling company.

    Trafalgar Group, which predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, shows he is leading Biden in many swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Arizona, unlike most other nationwide polls that predict a Biden victory.

    The Atlanta-based opinion polling and survey company's latest poll indicates Trump is leading Biden by 2.7 points in the state of Florida, while the New York Times' poll projects a 3-point win by the former vice president for the 29 electoral votes in Sunshine State.

    In Pennsylvania, Trafalgar Group shows a 0.8 point lead for Trump, while a poll by ABC News and the Washington Post predicts a 7-point win for Biden for the 20 electoral votes in Keystone State.

    Trafalgar Group's poll in Michigan also favors Trump by 2.5 points, whereas research firm Ipsos anticipates a 10-point win by Biden for 16 electoral votes in the Great Lake State.

    The firm's latest poll in North Carolina forecasts 2.1 points of lead by Trump over his opponent for 15 electoral votes in Old North State, while think tank Data for Progress shows a 2-point lead by Biden.

    Trafalgar Group's poll in Arizona also favors Trump by 2.5 points against the New York Times' 6-point lead by Biden for 11 electoral votes in the Grand Canyon State.

    In Wisconsin and Minnesota, however, the company sees Biden ahead of Trump, for the 10 electoral votes in each of these states.

    Trafalgar Group explains delivering its polling questionnaires in a mix of different methods, such as live calling, integrated voice response, text messages, emails, and two other proprietary digital methods they say they do not share publicly.

    "The firm’s polls last one to two minutes and are designed to quickly get opinions from those who would not typically participate in political polls," according to Robert Cahaly, senior strategist and pollster.
  • GreenRiverGatorzGreenRiverGatorz Member Posts: 10,165

    The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to get their guys in improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

    All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.

    It's pretty fucking simple. Phone rings - number you don't recognize but answer anyway. They ask who you're voting for.

    Given the bullshit that Antifa and BLM has caused this summer, are you even going to give them any HINT that you might be voting for Trump? If you have my phone number and how I'm voting - you pretty well have all you need to show up on my doorstep, ruin my business, destroy my property.

    Fuck, no I"m not answering the question. I'm probably not even answering the phone. So you're naturally going to get more Biden people picking up and blabbing how they plan to vote.



    To the extent that this dynamic is true, it's exactly what the pollsters are trying to build in to their sample weighting. That and 1000 others factors. Naturally, you have to LIPO for the accuracy of that sample weighting.
  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Member Posts: 44,536 Standard Supporter

    The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to get their guys in improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

    All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.

    It's pretty fucking simple. Phone rings - number you don't recognize but answer anyway. They ask who you're voting for.

    Given the bullshit that Antifa and BLM has caused this summer, are you even going to give them any HINT that you might be voting for Trump? If you have my phone number and how I'm voting - you pretty well have all you need to show up on my doorstep, ruin my business, destroy my property.

    Fuck, no I"m not answering the question. I'm probably not even answering the phone. So you're naturally going to get more Biden people picking up and blabbing how they plan to vote.



    To the extent that this dynamic is true, it's exactly what the pollsters are trying to build in to their sample weighting. That and 1000 others factors. Naturally, you have to LIPO for the accuracy of that sample weighting.
    Pollster: Hey - can I ask you? If i pinky swear I won't leak your info to Antifa, will you tell me the truth?

    Yeah....they are factoring that one. For sure.

  • GreenRiverGatorzGreenRiverGatorz Member Posts: 10,165

    The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to get their guys in improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

    All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.

    I don’t know. Rasmussen and Trafalgar were mostly accurate in 2016 and are showing completely different results than that mainstream media poles.

    Polling seems like a crapshoot anymore, and the Democrats are in a lather today talking about Trump declaring victory tomorrow night. Seems like an odd talking point the day before a “landslide” for Biden.

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-leading-swing-states-in-us-election-poll/2028249

    ANKARA

    US President Donald Trump is ahead of his Democratic contender Joe Biden in some key swing states in the upcoming 2020 presidential election on Tuesday, according to a polling company.

    Trafalgar Group, which predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, shows he is leading Biden in many swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Arizona, unlike most other nationwide polls that predict a Biden victory.

    The Atlanta-based opinion polling and survey company's latest poll indicates Trump is leading Biden by 2.7 points in the state of Florida, while the New York Times' poll projects a 3-point win by the former vice president for the 29 electoral votes in Sunshine State.

    In Pennsylvania, Trafalgar Group shows a 0.8 point lead for Trump, while a poll by ABC News and the Washington Post predicts a 7-point win for Biden for the 20 electoral votes in Keystone State.

    Trafalgar Group's poll in Michigan also favors Trump by 2.5 points, whereas research firm Ipsos anticipates a 10-point win by Biden for 16 electoral votes in the Great Lake State.

    The firm's latest poll in North Carolina forecasts 2.1 points of lead by Trump over his opponent for 15 electoral votes in Old North State, while think tank Data for Progress shows a 2-point lead by Biden.

    Trafalgar Group's poll in Arizona also favors Trump by 2.5 points against the New York Times' 6-point lead by Biden for 11 electoral votes in the Grand Canyon State.

    In Wisconsin and Minnesota, however, the company sees Biden ahead of Trump, for the 10 electoral votes in each of these states.

    Trafalgar Group explains delivering its polling questionnaires in a mix of different methods, such as live calling, integrated voice response, text messages, emails, and two other proprietary digital methods they say they do not share publicly.

    "The firm’s polls last one to two minutes and are designed to quickly get opinions from those who would not typically participate in political polls," according to Robert Cahaly, senior strategist and pollster.
    You're right regarding Trafalgar and Rasmussen, they're definitely the outliers in the sea of pollsters. Rasmussen has a solid track record, so I give them credence. Trafalgar is too Johnny come Lately for me to pay much attention to. If they can hit on '16 and '20 then I'll buy in.
  • greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,484
    Why do these pollsters remind of the Dawgman staff every recruiting cycle?
  • BleachedAnusDawgBleachedAnusDawg Member Posts: 11,756
    doogie said:

    Pollsters are paid to get the results their clients want to publicize. Period.

    Having paid for polling, this is definitely half of it.
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