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Latest polls say Landslide!

13

Comments

  • thechatch
    thechatch Member Posts: 7,488 Standard Supporter
    The media and the DNC will not allow Biden to lose on ED. This will get stretched out for weeks, and we will be seeing massive protests/riots/ballet harvesting.

    Big winners? The MSM(think of the advertising dollars at stake here) and people who like to set fire to public buildings in cities.
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  • PurpleThrobber
    PurpleThrobber Member Posts: 48,542 Standard Supporter
    thechatch said:

    The media and the DNC will not allow Biden to lose on ED. This will get stretched out for weeks, and we will be seeing massive protests/riots/ballet harvesting.

    Big winners? The MSM(think of the advertising dollars at stake here) and people who like to set fire to public buildings in cities.

    So go long on oil/gas stocks or vodka bottlers?

    #molotov

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  • LebamDawg
    LebamDawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 8,843 Swaye's Wigwam
    I am going to wait until all the ballot gatherers are finished finding the box of ballots that they left in the drivers seat of their car to decide what to believe
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  • Purple_Pills
    Purple_Pills Member Posts: 2,110
    thechatch said:

    The media and the DNC will not allow Biden to lose on ED.

    That’s their final strategy. Right now the idea is to suppress the GOP Election Day vote by making it seem an overwhelming Biden advantage when the opposite is true. After that fails, they go to this. If/when places like NH and MN flip, they can’t play this game anymore either.
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  • Pitchfork51
    Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,679
    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to get their guys in improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

    All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.

    All the stats in the world can't make up for the fact no one answers their fucking phone in 2020
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  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,223
    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to get their guys in improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

    All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.

    I actually disagree with this big time

    I think a lot of the pollsters view 2016 as a bit of a mirage and while you're right that they've attempted to change their methodology they are falling into a trap that anybody that works with data knows is the biggest issue of all ... terrible data quality

    In the current environment of "cancel culture" and an inability to agree to disagree, there's very little incentive out there for Trump voters to tell anybody that they are a Trump voter. Yes, some will fly flags and be in your face about it. But most will subscribe to anonymity. So unless you materially change how you go about identifying a "likely Trump voter" versus a "likey Biden voter," you'll continue to miss the mark.

    I suspect that what a lot of pollsters are doing is trying to quantify the "error factor" that they have for underestimating Trump and applying that to their numbers. In the end, it's a flat out guess.

    I feel like old school polling is gradually becoming an outdated method and there are likely far better leading indicators out there.
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  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,223
    Houhusky said:

    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to get their guys in improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

    All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.

    I think that is a generous assumption. You dont get graphs like this unless there is something fucky going on with your pole...



    They aren't (publicly) changing their methodology mid election season and the electorate isn't wildly swinging its opinion in 3-5 days. The only way you get this type of data generated is if you are trying to create a certain perception and still get close to the correct answer at the only time accuracy matters (Nov. 3rd).

    It allows polestars to say dumb shit like "Texas is in play" or "Biden up 17 points over Trump in Wisconsin" for months up to the election (hype up the wave!) and then still get the poles into the margin of error on election night and claim the polls were "technically correct" on election night.
    Bingo

    It's also leading to create a false narrative for Democratic leadership in thinking that they are safer than they actually are as well as allowing them to focus resources into areas that they think they have a shot but don't have a shot.

    Any conversations that I've heard about Texas going blue I just laugh at ... I'd be SHOCKED if Biden won it in this election.
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  • Pitchfork51
    Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,679
    Tequilla said:

    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    The Tug is quick to dismiss the polls, and given their 2016 performance, that's not an unfair reflex. But the fact remains that the stats nerds have been working tirelessly to get their guys in improve the methodology that led to 2016's massive polling failure. Namely, the improper weighting given to non-college whites, who were the biggest factor in driving that error.

    All that's to say that if Trump does win, it's not going to be because of the same polling mistakes that were made four years ago. It's going to be because of an unforeseen miss in the polls that is new to this election. A "silent majority" that was silent for a reason that the analytics guys are still missing.

    I actually disagree with this big time

    I think a lot of the pollsters view 2016 as a bit of a mirage and while you're right that they've attempted to change their methodology they are falling into a trap that anybody that works with data knows is the biggest issue of all ... terrible data quality

    In the current environment of "cancel culture" and an inability to agree to disagree, there's very little incentive out there for Trump voters to tell anybody that they are a Trump voter. Yes, some will fly flags and be in your face about it. But most will subscribe to anonymity. So unless you materially change how you go about identifying a "likely Trump voter" versus a "likey Biden voter," you'll continue to miss the mark.

    I suspect that what a lot of pollsters are doing is trying to quantify the "error factor" that they have for underestimating Trump and applying that to their numbers. In the end, it's a flat out guess.

    I feel like old school polling is gradually becoming an outdated method and there are likely far better leading indicators out there.
    Tldr no one picks up the phone.
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  • NorthwestFresh
    NorthwestFresh Member Posts: 7,972
    Yes Tapper, we know you create news with poles and DNC narratives instead of deleting on it.

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  • NorthwestFresh
    NorthwestFresh Member Posts: 7,972
    Fuck the Poll-eece.
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