Maximum Carnage Week Game Thread

Game time fuckers.

edit: Making it the official game thread and pinning so you can get all your piles of plague bodies updates throughout this week of ULTIMATE DEATH!

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RaceBannon

Sounds like a one size fits all approach isn't a good thing

Houhusky

4.75%

7 day rolling deaths still less than 1, with incomplete data.
4.69%

rolling deaths still less than one.

I'm a bit perplexed that the death data is on a lag. I mean, if someone is in the hospital due to complications to covid, why does that data take so long to report? Makes you wonder. Buddies grandfather died about a month ago, was positive for covid in March. I'd venture he has counted towards a positive covid death despite his heart just stopping, and being 98 or something.
Has anyone out there published what the baseline positive rate is?

Not just the tests technical constraints but the observed or estimated false positive rate when you take into account misreporting, sampling error, contamination, and countless other little hiccups that occur in the real world. I dont understand why the positive rate (still pointless), as it appears to approach an asymptote doesn't have confidence intervals or uncertainty bars included.

The baseline positive rate is a >0 number...
@huskyhooligan

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1311343789550776331?s=20

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext

Operational false positives is exactly what I was trying to get at... glad someone out there atleast attempted a scientific estimate.

For reference;

Washington "Safe Start" requires Counties have fewer than 25 new cases per 100,000 residents over a 14-day span.

This estimate would indicate a false positive rate of 8-40 per 1,000 tests... 800-4000 false positives per 100,000 tests

More on the subject of False positives... Twitter thread with a bunch of examples.

https://twitter.com/FrankfurtZack/status/1299762933073838082?s=20

No one wants to actually study this because it might reveal certain percent positive thresholds may be impossible to achieve.

RaceBannon

4.75%

7 day rolling deaths still less than 1, with incomplete data.
4.69%

rolling deaths still less than one.

I'm a bit perplexed that the death data is on a lag. I mean, if someone is in the hospital due to complications to covid, why does that data take so long to report? Makes you wonder. Buddies grandfather died about a month ago, was positive for covid in March. I'd venture he has counted towards a positive covid death despite his heart just stopping, and being 98 or something.
Has anyone out there published what the baseline positive rate is?

Not just the tests technical constraints but the observed or estimated false positive rate when you take into account misreporting, sampling error, contamination, and countless other little hiccups that occur in the real world. I dont understand why the positive rate (still pointless), as it appears to approach an asymptote doesn't have confidence intervals or uncertainty bars included.

The baseline positive rate is a >0 number...
@huskyhooligan

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1311343789550776331?s=20

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext

Operational false positives is exactly what I was trying to get at... glad someone out there atleast attempted a scientific estimate.

For reference;

Washington "Safe Start" requires Counties have fewer than 25 new cases per 100,000 residents over a 14-day span.

This estimate would indicate a false positive rate of 8-40 per 1,000 tests... 800-4000 false positives per 100,000 tests
More on the subject of False positives... Twitter thread with a bunch of examples.

https://twitter.com/FrankfurtZack/status/1299762933073838082?s=20

No one wants to actually study this because it might reveal certain percent positive thresholds may be impossible to achieve.

I prefer to give a pithy one sentence reply showing my intellectual superiority over you

Houhusky

4.75%

7 day rolling deaths still less than 1, with incomplete data.
4.69%

rolling deaths still less than one.

I'm a bit perplexed that the death data is on a lag. I mean, if someone is in the hospital due to complications to covid, why does that data take so long to report? Makes you wonder. Buddies grandfather died about a month ago, was positive for covid in March. I'd venture he has counted towards a positive covid death despite his heart just stopping, and being 98 or something.
Has anyone out there published what the baseline positive rate is?

Not just the tests technical constraints but the observed or estimated false positive rate when you take into account misreporting, sampling error, contamination, and countless other little hiccups that occur in the real world. I dont understand why the positive rate (still pointless), as it appears to approach an asymptote doesn't have confidence intervals or uncertainty bars included.

The baseline positive rate is a >0 number...
@huskyhooligan

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1311343789550776331?s=20

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext

Operational false positives is exactly what I was trying to get at... glad someone out there atleast attempted a scientific estimate.

For reference;

Washington "Safe Start" requires Counties have fewer than 25 new cases per 100,000 residents over a 14-day span.

This estimate would indicate a false positive rate of 8-40 per 1,000 tests... 800-4000 false positives per 100,000 tests
More on the subject of False positives... Twitter thread with a bunch of examples.

https://twitter.com/FrankfurtZack/status/1299762933073838082?s=20

No one wants to actually study this because it might reveal certain percent positive thresholds may be impossible to achieve.
I prefer to give a pithy one sentence reply showing my intellectual superiority over you

brevity is the soul of wit...

‘Brevity is the soul of wit’ is a Shakespeare quote that has become one of his most enduring idioms. It is spoken by Polonius, in act 2, scene 2 of Hamlet.

In modern times we talk about someone as being witty, and by that we mean a person who uses language to say something funny or amusing. But we also say things like, ‘she has her wits about her,’ which means that she’s pretty bright, and although we are not allowed to say ‘half-witted’ about anyone, people still use the term. In those senses we get to what the word actually means, which is about how brainy one is and how one uses language as a reflection of that.

‘Brevity’ is the soul of wit’ means that one can say a lot more by using the minimum of language to convey something. In other words, being brief is the essence of intelligence.

In scene 2 Polonius is talking to the king and queen, Claudius and Gertrude, and says:

“My liege, and madam, to expostulate
What majesty should be, what duty is,
What day is day, night night, and time is time,
Were nothing but to waste night, day, and time;
Therefore, since brevity is the soul of wit,
And tediousness the limbs and outward flourishes,
I will be brief. Your noble son is mad…”
We can see that although he is saying that using few words to say something shows intelligence, he is going on and on, round and round, using a lot of words just to declare that in his opinion Hamlet is mad.

In spite of its deeply serious themes Hamlet is quite a funny play. Hamlet is himself amusing as he has a strong sense of humour and often brings out the humour of things. That is often at the expense of inadequate people, and is quite cruel, which amounts almost to bullying.

Polonius is the main target of Hamlet’s cruel humour and, much to the delight of his friend, Horatio, mercilessly goads him. We are on Hamlet’s and Horatio’s side though, and also laugh at Polonius: he is a contemptible individual. He’s a hypocrite but it’s his sycophantic nature that attracts Hamlet’s attention.

In this scene we see him bowing and scraping to the royal couple. The queen, Gertrude, is used to his garrulous delivery, having been married to the previous king, Hamlet’s father, for decades, with Polonius as their chief minister, and has no difficulty in telling him to get on with it.

Play productions usually make the most of that scene, with Gertrude yawning exaggeratedly, or rolling her eyes, as he speaks. In modern stagings, she may look at her watch repeatedly. He’s weaving it, saying that Hamlet has gone crazy and that he thinks he knows why. She interrupts him with, ‘More matter and less art.’ She’s telling him to stop embroidering it and to get to the point.

So Shakespeare uses the line ‘brevity is the soul of wit’ ironically, in that it comes from the most long-winded character in all of his plays. It is also ironic – unintentionally on Shakespeare’s part – in that it has become one of the greatest bits of wisdom among English idioms although it comes from one of Shakespeare’s fools.

RaceBannon

https://msn.com/en-us/news/politics/alarming-poll-majority-of-republicans-say-was-just-bad-luck-trump-got-covid-and-he-should-keep-doing-rallies/ar-BB19NplR?ocid=msedgdhp

It's "alarming" that people don't want to live in fear anymore

WestlinnDuck

https://msn.com/en-us/news/politics/alarming-poll-majority-of-republicans-say-was-just-bad-luck-trump-got-covid-and-he-should-keep-doing-rallies/ar-BB19NplR?ocid=msedgdhp

It's "alarming" that people don't want to live in fear anymore

What's more alarming is the number of Americans who are living in fear from something that is no more deadly to anyone under 60 than the flu. Trump in spite of being 74 and overweight is as healthy as a horse with the energy that Joe Biden NEVER EVER had.

theknowledge

https://msn.com/en-us/news/politics/alarming-poll-majority-of-republicans-say-was-just-bad-luck-trump-got-covid-and-he-should-keep-doing-rallies/ar-BB19NplR?ocid=msedgdhp

It's "alarming" that people don't want to live in fear anymore
What's more alarming is the number of Americans who are living in fear from something that is no more deadly to anyone under 60 than the flu. Trump in spite of being 74 and overweight is as healthy as a horse with the energy that Joe Biden NEVER EVER had.

Nope. Media sources told me he feels great because he’s on a steroid. Once that wears off it could be grim. GRIM. Why won’t Trump release his lung samples? Hiding something, I’m sure if it.

People actually believe this shit. Still after seven months of this nonsense there has been more Cases of shingles in my grocery store than Covid. Can my kids go back to school yet? Kriest.

WestlinnDuck

4.75%

7 day rolling deaths still less than 1, with incomplete data.
4.69%

rolling deaths still less than one.

I'm a bit perplexed that the death data is on a lag. I mean, if someone is in the hospital due to complications to covid, why does that data take so long to report? Makes you wonder. Buddies grandfather died about a month ago, was positive for covid in March. I'd venture he has counted towards a positive covid death despite his heart just stopping, and being 98 or something.
Has anyone out there published what the baseline positive rate is?

Not just the tests technical constraints but the observed or estimated false positive rate when you take into account misreporting, sampling error, contamination, and countless other little hiccups that occur in the real world. I dont understand why the positive rate (still pointless), as it appears to approach an asymptote doesn't have confidence intervals or uncertainty bars included.

The baseline positive rate is a >0 number...
@huskyhooligan

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1311343789550776331?s=20

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext

Operational false positives is exactly what I was trying to get at... glad someone out there atleast attempted a scientific estimate.

For reference;

Washington "Safe Start" requires Counties have fewer than 25 new cases per 100,000 residents over a 14-day span.

This estimate would indicate a false positive rate of 8-40 per 1,000 tests... 800-4000 false positives per 100,000 tests
More on the subject of False positives... Twitter thread with a bunch of examples.

https://twitter.com/FrankfurtZack/status/1299762933073838082?s=20

No one wants to actually study this because it might reveal certain percent positive thresholds may be impossible to achieve.

US chicom crud tests detect much lower viral loads than the European tests. This means more false positives than the Lancet hypothesis.

RaceBannon

http://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1313733782235680768?s=19

Permanent lockdown required

Houhusky

http://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1313733782235680768?s=19

Permanent lockdown required

Also they said; "Herd immunity is still not achievable. There is increasing evidence that a significant number of carriers of the SARS-CoV-2 virus do not fall ill or that the virus very quickly prevents it from spreading in the body. This should in principle accelerate the development of herd immunity. Nevertheless, according to current estimates, including the number of unreported cases, we cannot achieve herd immunity in the medium term without placing a heavy burden on the health system."

Sounds like it is achievable to me and the "health system" has had 8+ months to get its fucking shit together, Its almost as if some prefer to run prisons rather than free countries.

If immunity wasn't carried than there would be plenty of people re-infected at this point... there isn't.

LoneStarDawg

http://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1313733782235680768?s=19

Permanent lockdown required

Might as well not play the pandemic

WestlinnDuck

If only we had a real world example like Sweden. That would be nice.

Top German scientists:
1. Herd immunity not possible bc immunity too short. News to me.
2. Not feasible to go 'shield vulnerable' approach bc impossible to fully identify & isolate them. If it saves one life. Phuck this guy.
3. Potential serious, long-term damage to young/healthy also from this virus.

Sledog

Socialists want more socialism. Even the fucking doctors!

Sledog

Amazon proves lockdowns are wrong:

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/10/06/amazon_thoroughly_wrecks_narrative_about_lockdowns_being_necessary_579797.html

huskyhooligan

doogie

https://msn.com/en-us/news/politics/alarming-poll-majority-of-republicans-say-was-just-bad-luck-trump-got-covid-and-he-should-keep-doing-rallies/ar-BB19NplR?ocid=msedgdhp

It's "alarming" that people don't want to live in fear anymore
What's more alarming is the number of Americans who are living in fear from something that is no more deadly to anyone under 60 than the flu. Trump in spite of being 74 and overweight is as healthy as a horse with the energy that Joe Biden NEVER EVER had.
Nope. Media sources told me he feels great because he’s on a steroid. Once that wears off it could be grim. GRIM. Why won’t Trump release his lung samples? Hiding something, I’m sure if it.

People actually believe this shit. Still after seven months of this nonsense there has been more Cases of shingles in my grocery store than Covid. Can my kids go back to school yet? Kriest.

Nailed it

LebamDawg

https://www.aier.org/article/the-pandemic-that-killed-debate/

GrundleStiltzkin

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1314558787534106624

RaceBannon

Thats how deadly it is

We didn't even know it was here

Sledog

We must have lost millions!

Oh no we didn't even notice. How odd....................................