Mariners are playing .500 ball bitches!

CuntWaffle said:

dnc said:

HeretoBeatmyChest said:

Other than Cano, the rest of the lineup is batting 255 or worse. Thats a fucking horrible offense. No way they win 80 games.

For someone who is so good with advanced metrics in other sports, gotta admit I'm shocked to see you site something as meaningless as batting average.

This offense is a dreckfest as always, but not because of it's batting average.

They are 26th in OBP. 23rd in team BA. 25th OPS. That is fucking awful no matter how you look at it. Especially considering they have scored 4 runs or more in their last 8 games so they were even lower before that.

"This offense is a dreckfest as always"

CuntWaffle said:

I fail to see how batting average doesn't play a part in the dreckfest.

If they could take a walk or hit for real pop they could still score runs despite their low average.

Minnesota, for example, is just two spots ahead of the M's in batting average with a team BA of .244. We would all say that sucks. But they have an OBP of .335 (7th). Even with their SLG of .373 (21st, just one spot above the M's), they're 7th in runs scored.

OBP has a higher correlation to runs scored than any other stat. Batting average has a pretty weak correlation to run scored.

TL;DR, NOC, etc

CuntWaffle said:

And the Mariners have a worse OBP than they do Average.

No one is arguing otherwise.

"This offense is a dreckfest as always"

CuntWaffle said:

I am more commenting on the being "cautiously optimistic" part. There is no reason to be even slightly optimistic. The pitching is pretty good but you won't win unless you consistently score runs. The Mariners have been swinging the bats better but they always do this, it is all in the script.

They will go back to being the team that loses 2-1. 3-0, 4-2 etc. soon enough.

Looking more deeply into it, you're probably right. My thinking was 1) most of their year to date performances seem sustainable on an individual level and 2) on a team level their run differential is right in line with their record so they haven't been getting lucky by squeeking out fluky one run games.

What I failed to notice, and this discussion illuminates, is that the offense is getting real lucky when it comes to run scored. Their team OBP and OPS are not capable of sustaining a 17th place in runs scored. They are simply getting lucky with RISP, and we know that won't continue. They are going to fall back towards 23-27, and that regression is going to hurt.

I still think they're ultimately better than the team we've seen this far with Cano sure to hit for power at some point, Almonte 86'd and Iwakuma back, but those improvements will probably only make up for the luck they've had in runs scored so far.

I still like my over 8.5 wins in June, though.