NBA Free Agency thread

Tequilla said:

Some random thoughts and what could be long (non Nets/Lakers centric) ...

Philly: Big losers today IMO. Losing Butler hurts (and I don't like them). Losing JJ hurts more (can't replace his shooting or threat thereof). Harris to a monster contract doesn't make a ton of sense to me and is at a level that I don't think you can move it. Josh Richardson to replace Butler at the 2 is another example of a guy that I'm not sure is a good shooter. Their other young wings (Thybulle and Zhaire Smith) aren't known to be shooters. Then you add Horford at this stage of his career that is another guy that is a decent but not great shooter. Just strikes me as a team that is embracing an identify of being big and defensive minded. But it also puts all of their eggs on Embiid staying healthy and being a dominant scorer because we know what Ben Simmons is as a scorer when the going gets tough. Just feels like a really incomplete team to me at this point.

Indy: I really like what they've done so far this offseason and this is a team that I think is a massive dark horse in the East next year. Their biggest move is simply getting Victor Oladipo back healthy. I don't think the casual NBA fan realizes how good he is. Getting Brogdon away from the Bucks is tremendous (more on this later from a Bucks standpoint). Simply put the guy is an efficient shooter that plays solid defense and for all the talk about how good he is playing next to Giannis, it'll be the same with Oladipo. Adding Jeremy Lamb will make their bench better and give them depth. The move I really like for them is getting TJ Warren for essentially nothing from Phoenix. The dude can score the basketball. He's someone that if you slot him in playing on the bench as the key scorer on the 2nd unit, he's going to be an absolute load. I think they still need to get a PG (someone like TJ McConnell would be a nice fit for them) but when you look at a roster of (Oladipo, Brogdon, Myler Turner, Doma Sabonis, Jeremy Lamb, TJ Warren, and Dougie McBuckets), you've got a foundation for a pretty interesting team full of guys that can shoot the basketball with a bunch of decent defenders on it. This is absolutely a team that I could see in the East Semi's next year pretty easily.

Milwaukee: I think they really screwed the pooch today. They were basically in a spot where they needed to go into a massive luxury tax range to run it all back and running it back wasn't good enough last year. Problem is that running it back basically means that you're counting on Giannis to take the next leap and shoulder even more of the load. I'm not a huge Middleton guy and he's really only worth the max with the Bucks. That contract is going to look bad. Brook Lopez is a nice player and will be 31 next season. If they were going to pay a guy the guy to pay was Brogdon. And they failed. I know that the idea is that Giannis is going to stay there but what happens if they fall short in the East Semi's next year? This will be a really interesting thing to keep track of next year and how the Bucks go.

Boston: Getting Kemba to replace Kyrie is tremendous. Far better fit all the way around. The only downside of the sign and trade is that you're looking at a semi-hard cap for them this year. But when you look at a core of Kemba + Jaylen Brown + Jason Tatum + Gordon Hayward + Marcus Smart + Center (potentially Kevon Looney?), that's a pretty reasonable core to go with ... particularly if Hayward is able to rebound (the injury he had is probably a 1 year to return + 1 year to get your strength back kind of injury). Ultimately, their future is all dependent upon Brown/Tatum continuing to up their game and what they are able to get with the Memphis pick coming up.

Knicks: Let's just be 100% honest at this point, the Knicks aren't getting anybody as long as Dolan owns that team as anybody worth a damn knows that it's an incompetent organization. I actually like Julius Randle but as I believe Rex Chapman said on NBATV, he's a bench player on a Championship team. It's true and fair. And then to have Brooklyn (with no history other than selling Dr J upon entering the NBA) turn you into their bitch ... let's see how long it takes for Dolan to sell ... it's the only thing interesting about the Knicks at this point.

Utah: With Indiana, this is really my big winner of the offseason at this point (non Nets/Lakers division). The Conley trade is a major upgrade for them over Rubio. Getting Bojan is another massive upgrade as well. He's super underrated as a player and will be a great fit for what they are as a team. It's not great that they are losing Derrick Favors but all in all it is what it is. I don't think most people realize how relatively close that they are to being a legit contender. It wouldn't shock me at all if this is a team playing in the West Finals next year.

Warriors: Getting Russell back after losing KD is about as good as they could have hoped for. The downside is that they are hard capped and they've already had to move Iggy to cover it and almost assuredly won't be able to bring back Looney, Cousins, etc. It's still going to be a thin team next year and the Playoffs will still be a pretty good year for them. But the upside to all of this is that I think with the way the Cap works that with them being hard capped because of the sign and trade it will help out their future tax bills once Draymond's extension kicks in. The other benefit to all of this is that Russell is still a super young, and still improving. The big challenge that the Warriors needed to address at some point with Steph/Klay, etc, would be how to get a young star into the fold to pick up the load as they aged. Russell has the ability and pedigree to do that. It's really intriguing to think that the Warriors may emerge from some rotten lemons with some lemonade.

The rest of the West has largely stayed status quo and it's really a situation where IMO you've got 11 really solid squads that are going to compete for 8 playoff spots as the Lakers obviously are going to be moving into the Top 8 and both the Kings and Mavs are ascending teams. That's not even including New Orleans who I thought has done well in fleecing the Lakers, adding JJ, and in potentially adding Favors, this is all of a sudden a really intriguing team. The West is going to continue to be absolutely brutal night in and night out mess.

I'll conclude with we obviously don't know where Kawhi is going but if it turns out to be the Lakers instead of the Clippers, that's going to be an absolutely bitter pill to swallow for Ballmer. It also might turn out to be a great day for Seattle because it may finally lead Ballmer to realize that being the 3rd tenant at Staples + being so far relatively unable to gain traction on their own building means that their livelihood in Los Angeles is always as a bastard whereas coming to Seattle could position him in a far better long-term position.

A lot of what you are saying I agree with, but... Horford and Josh Richardson are better 3pt shooters than Jimmy Butler. Butler's fit was questioned for that reason initially. Richardson is a great catch and shoot guy, but when asked to do a lot on a crap team, he wasn't as efficient.

The sixers lineup will be better on defense without question. The question is how the offense operates, particularly when it comes to crunch time.

The Sixers didn't come out perfect but I think big losers is a stretch there. Got younger, got a good amount better defensively, lost a little on the offensive end. Their flaw will again be the bench. -94 with Embiid off the floor vs the Raptors was literally the difference between a championship and Kawhi's buzzer beater. Remedy that and you have a true title contender.