Nowell goes pro

He can still stay until May 29th. I doubt he will. Would be huge if he did.

Should have stayed, but we knew he was gone. Not a huge surprise and I'm not that upset. He was a huge piece of this program's rise.

HillsboroDuck said:

Completely the right move, all this should have stayed stuff is pure doogery. His stock isn't getting better, he had to prove he could shoot from outside, he did. It's the obvious move, and the right one for him.

Good luck to him.

Yep, he's not going to grow into elite athleticism, which is his biggest knock, by staying another year. His game is well-rounded and polished, and therefore he's pretty tapped out as far as pro potential goes. Strike now.

UWhuskytskeet said:

Rapeculturedawg said:

He'll be back unless he's projected to the 1st round.

He could have said he was testing the waters. This looks like goodbye.

It's been clear goodbye since before Senior Day. The decision has been made for awhile.

GreenRiverGatorz said:

HillsboroDuck said:

Completely the right move, all this should have stayed stuff is pure doogery. His stock isn't getting better, he had to prove he could shoot from outside, he did. It's the obvious move, and the right one for him.

Good luck to him.

Yep, he's not going to grow into elite athleticism, which is his biggest knock, by staying another year. His game is well-rounded and polished, and therefore he's pretty tapped out as far as pro potential goes. Strike now.

Yes, Nowell has below average athleticism for a 2 guard in the NBA. That isn't going to change.

But it's why he should return and try to increase his draft position by improving his scoring ability further and his ball handling on a much better team that should receive better exposure.

There are papers/studies showing the even NBA teams fall into the sunk cost fallacy; giving more playing time, larger contracts, additional contracts and more opportunities to higher drafted players even if their on-court efficiency is lower than another player. Nowell isnt going to command developmental attention and patience because the NBA loves to jerk off about potential (particularly athletic), BUT if he can improve his way into a top 20 pick (possible IMO) then a team that spends those much higher draft resources to get him is much more likely to invest more into him after the draft and give him the opportunities his game requires to be successful.

Nowell should give Joe Young and Nick Johnson (recent Pac12 POYs) a call and chat with about what it's like being drafted around 45ish.

I suppose all this changes if someone is projecting him as a 1st rounder... but I dont think thats the case? Most boards Ive seen have him as a mid second, if on the board at all.

HillsboroDuck said:

Tequilla said:

My guess is that Nowell is in the 25-35 range

I'll take the under on 30.

i think he goes 2nd round. pac-12 was a fucking dreck. Not sure many teams watched it.

Houhusky said:

GreenRiverGatorz said:

HillsboroDuck said:

Completely the right move, all this should have stayed stuff is pure doogery. His stock isn't getting better, he had to prove he could shoot from outside, he did. It's the obvious move, and the right one for him.

Good luck to him.

Yep, he's not going to grow into elite athleticism, which is his biggest knock, by staying another year. His game is well-rounded and polished, and therefore he's pretty tapped out as far as pro potential goes. Strike now.

Yes, Nowell has below average athleticism for a 2 guard in the NBA. That isn't going to change.

But it's why he should return and try to increase his draft position by improving his scoring ability further and his ball handling on a much better team that should receive better exposure.

There are papers/studies showing the even NBA teams fall into the sunk cost fallacy; giving more playing time, larger contracts, additional contracts and more opportunities to higher drafted players even if their on-court efficiency is lower than another player. Nowell isnt going to command developmental attention and patience because the NBA loves to jerk off about potential (particularly athletic), BUT if he can improve his way into a top 20 pick (possible IMO) then a team that spends those much higher draft resources to get him is much more likely to invest more into him after the draft and give him the opportunities his game requires to be successful.

Nowell should give Joe Young and Nick Johnson (recent Pac12 POYs) a call and chat with about what it's like being drafted around 45ish.

I suppose all this changes if someone is projecting him as a 1st rounder... but I dont think thats the case? Most boards Ive seen have him as a mid second, if on the board at all.

Most boards now have him creeping near or into the first round. As for coming back, that's just way too big of a risk. His stock increased dramatically this year and his productivity certainly appeared to be maxed (POY seasons are hard to repeat). I suppose it's possible that he could come back and rise another ten spots with a Naismith kind of year, but I think there's an equal chance of him falling short of expectations and seeing his stock plummet. Better for him to leave now when he has the guaranteed payday and not over play his hand.

.

GreenRiverGatorz said:

Houhusky said:

GreenRiverGatorz said:

HillsboroDuck said:

Completely the right move, all this should have stayed stuff is pure doogery. His stock isn't getting better, he had to prove he could shoot from outside, he did. It's the obvious move, and the right one for him.

Good luck to him.

Yep, he's not going to grow into elite athleticism, which is his biggest knock, by staying another year. His game is well-rounded and polished, and therefore he's pretty tapped out as far as pro potential goes. Strike now.

Yes, Nowell has below average athleticism for a 2 guard in the NBA. That isn't going to change.

But it's why he should return and try to increase his draft position by improving his scoring ability further and his ball handling on a much better team that should receive better exposure.

There are papers/studies showing the even NBA teams fall into the sunk cost fallacy; giving more playing time, larger contracts, additional contracts and more opportunities to higher drafted players even if their on-court efficiency is lower than another player. Nowell isnt going to command developmental attention and patience because the NBA loves to jerk off about potential (particularly athletic), BUT if he can improve his way into a top 20 pick (possible IMO) then a team that spends those much higher draft resources to get him is much more likely to invest more into him after the draft and give him the opportunities his game requires to be successful.

Nowell should give Joe Young and Nick Johnson (recent Pac12 POYs) a call and chat with about what it's like being drafted around 45ish.

I suppose all this changes if someone is projecting him as a 1st rounder... but I dont think thats the case? Most boards Ive seen have him as a mid second, if on the board at all.

Most boards now have him creeping near or into the first round. As for coming back, that's just way too big of a risk. His stock increased dramatically this year and his productivity certainly appeared to be maxed (POY seasons are hard to repeat). I suppose it's possible that he could come back and rise another ten spots with a Naismith kind of year, but I think there's an equal chance of him falling short of expectations and seeing his stock plummet. Better for him to leave now when he has the guaranteed payday and not over play his hand.

Im with @Tequilla on this line of thinking, if you have to leave college to protect your position you have no business being the in NBA. Particularly for Nowell who will receive great coaching and be on a better team next year.

As for the draft boards? which ones are people looking at? hoopshype is pretty good at keeping an updated aggregate for the paid websites and NBAdraft has Nowell at 39.

https://hoopshype.com/2019/03/19/nba-mock-draft-big-board-deandre-hunter-cameron-johnson-jordan-nwora/

https://www.nbadraft.net/2019mock_draft

greenblood said:

Tequilla said:

Let’s cut through one thing here really quick

If you can’t come back to college, improve as a player, and climb the boards the following year by being more NBA ready, then you probably aren’t good enough to be in the NBA to start with

Nothing irritates me more on this kind of topic than the protect what you have argument ... fucking stupid logic

Now might be the best time. Is it next year when high schoolers can again enter the draft? That could make for a very crowded draft class.

I’d be the 2021 draft at the earliest, s/o @PaoloBanchero

backthepack said:

Tequilla said:

HillsboroDuck said:

Tequilla said:

My guess is that Nowell is in the 25-35 range

I'll take the under on 30.

Let’s see the final list of those that go

Another thing to consider is the 2020 Draft isn’t considered a particularly strong one

If he is in the top 20 it’s a no brained.

If on the edge hard decisions to make

No wrong. It’s this draft that is considered horrible out of Zion, Ja, and maybe Reddish/Barrett.

Yep, this is the much better draft for Nowell to be in.

Go read articles ... there was an article on The Athletic about the McDonald’s All American that talked about how light the 2020 draft was going to be

NEsnake12 said:

RJ Barrett will probably go the way of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Well rounded but doesn’t do any one thing particularly well, including shooting. Journeyman starter at best.

Wouldn’t bank on anyone besides Zion/Ja being an All Star calibur player

Barrett is a ball hog. He actually has good vision when he does pass. I think he has a chance if he can improve his shot and be less selfish.