So yah; so many moving parts right now... to be brief, my view is that the market players have fallen in love with the idea of theme investing since the beginning of 2020 before the market crash
As 2020 opened, tech was hot as well as a lot of breadth in the market
Then we saw the COVID crash and the new theme was throw your hands in the air and run for the hills
Next we saw the fed and central banks intervene and the new theme was believe in the power of the fed
Next it was everyone was stuck at home so buy biotech, and the technology, entertainment food booze and ammunition that you need to hang out at home
Then after the first move, investors thought about what else might move in the earlier phases of recovery
Then investors started buying into the reopening concept of the new economic order
Then investors jumped into energy as oil finally started to make a move, and jumped into second stage countries like Brazil, India, Mexico and Australia as their currencies started to surge...
Meanwhile tech continued to surge and Tesla moved up 1200 percent in 15 months
On 2/15/21 the tech market broke down and since then the market has looked for new leadership
The market now lacks a new theme to believe in; the second wave of COVID is shutting down lots of locations around the world, China, the Soviet Union and other international providers have admitted their vacination is a bust with 50 percent efficacy, interest rates are rising with long treasuries down 12 percent recently, Biden is proposing profound changes to taxation and people are now wondering how long the protection from vaccinations will be good for while lots of folks are not even going to be vaccinated, and substantial parts of the world have less than 10 percent of the population vaccinated if you even believe in that
virus mutation is probably the next theme
The market now lacks the opportunity theme that they crave
News reports this morning are that the US will not get to herd immunity because the virus mutates too fast. Gee, no kidding.
If this drags out another 1-2 years people will have already spent their saved vacation money/Biden funny money and everyone will be broke, suffering the effects of 10% inflation, sitting around asking what to do now that the gazebos and pools are all built, etc. Booze and weed seems like the strong long-term play.
So yah; so many moving parts right now... to be brief, my view is that the market players have fallen in love with the idea of theme investing since the beginning of 2020 before the market crash
As 2020 opened, tech was hot as well as a lot of breadth in the market
Then we saw the COVID crash and the new theme was throw your hands in the air and run for the hills
Next we saw the fed and central banks intervene and the new theme was believe in the power of the fed
Next it was everyone was stuck at home so buy biotech, and the technology, entertainment food booze and ammunition that you need to hang out at home
Then after the first move, investors thought about what else might move in the earlier phases of recovery
Then investors started buying into the reopening concept of the new economic order
Then investors jumped into energy as oil finally started to make a move, and jumped into second stage countries like Brazil, India, Mexico and Australia as their currencies started to surge...
Meanwhile tech continued to surge and Tesla moved up 1200 percent in 15 months
On 2/15/21 the tech market broke down and since then the market has looked for new leadership
The market now lacks a new theme to believe in; the second wave of COVID is shutting down lots of locations around the world, China, the Soviet Union and other international providers have admitted their vacination is a bust with 50 percent efficacy, interest rates are rising with long treasuries down 12 percent recently, Biden is proposing profound changes to taxation and people are now wondering how long the protection from vaccinations will be good for while lots of folks are not even going to be vaccinated, and substantial parts of the world have less than 10 percent of the population vaccinated if you even believe in that
virus mutation is probably the next theme
The market now lacks the opportunity theme that they crave
News reports this morning are that the US will not get to herd immunity because the virus mutates too fast. Gee, no kidding.
If this drags out another 1-2 years people will have already spent their saved vacation money/Biden funny money and everyone will be broke, suffering the effects of 10% inflation, sitting around asking what to do now that the gazebos and pools are all built, etc. Booze and weed seems like the strong long-term play.
It won't happen. At some point literally everyone will say 'fuck it' and move on. It has to happen. The national and global economy don't work like this even though it's good for a few companies.
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If this drags out another 1-2 years people will have already spent their saved vacation money/Biden funny money and everyone will be broke, suffering the effects of 10% inflation, sitting around asking what to do now that the gazebos and pools are all built, etc. Booze and weed seems like the strong long-term play.