Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

Are We in the Early Stages of Baseman's Pull-Back?

creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 22,706
First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes Photogenic
edited May 2022 in Tug Tavern
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-20-2021-221508218.html


Investors dumped equities at an impressive clip last week, with the negative fund flows suggesting the recent drop in equities could continue in the near-term, according to an analysis from Bank of America.

"Last week marked the fifth biggest weekly net sales (-$5.2B) by clients in history (since 2008) and the largest since November," Bank of America equity strategist Savita Subramanian wrote in a note Tuesday. "Market weakness could continue near-term. In the prior times weekly flows were this (or more) negative, the subsequent week's returns were -1% on avg/median ... with negative returns 75% of the time."

By type of investor, Bank of America also noted that retail clients were the only net buyers of equities last week, while institutional and hedge fund clients sold.


Do you want to be trading against the Hedge Fund current? Maybe @oregonblitzkrieg can let us know what's really going on.
«1

Comments

  • BasemanBaseman Member Posts: 12,365
    First Anniversary First Comment 5 Up Votes Combo Breaker
    30% cash after exiting my Travelers and VNQ positions this morning in IRAs.

    The knock out earnings by the banks followed by the fade trade last week suggests trouble ahead.

    Time to pump the brakes when everybody is talking about the difference between Cryptos and $43B Palantir and 2000. Keeping my 10 shares of Coinbase. Glad I went small

    Hold on to your good companies in your taxable accounts. Have dry powder.
  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 22,706
    First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes Photogenic
    Baseman said:

    30% cash after exiting my Travelers and VNQ positions this morning in IRAs.

    The knock out earnings by the banks followed by the fade trade last week suggests trouble ahead.

    Time to pump the brakes when everybody is talking about the difference between Cryptos and $43B Palantir and 2000. Keeping my 10 shares of Coinbase. Glad I went small

    Hold on to your good companies in your taxable accounts. Have dry powder.

    I'm sitting on mine, but will go all in on a sharp decline. College tuitions are behind me, 2 kids employed, one in grad school on the school's nickel, so cash squeeze is less of a risk for me going forward (knock on wood).

    I just don't want to be the chucklehead who dumps in today only to watch it take a nose dive that takes four years to recover from ... then again, I don't want to be the guy on the sideline watching this bull continue his run.

    I'm going conservative ... unless I can get in on Doogcoin. That's another matter altogether.
  • HHuskyHHusky Member Posts: 18,954
    First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes First Comment
    Put some cash in today. Not a ton, but I almost can't resist when the phone app is solid red for everything I monitor.
  • SourcesSources Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 3,793
    First Anniversary 5 Awesomes First Comment 5 Up Votes
    Swaye's Wigwam
    HHusky said:

    Put some cash in today. Not a ton, but I almost can't resist when the phone app is solid red for everything I monitor.

    Buying the dip is tempting, but be careful of catching a falling knife. Best to phase in rather than going in all at once. I'd also look to buy at a golden cross (i.e., 50 SMA crosses 200 SMA). It'll signal a potential rally and help prevent you from going red immediately and panic selling into a loss.
  • ntxduckntxduck Member Posts: 5,512
    5 Awesomes First Anniversary 5 Up Votes First Comment
    HHusky said:

    Put some cash in today. Not a ton, but I almost can't resist when the phone app is solid red for everything I monitor.

    Drip it in 5% at a time
  • godawgstgodawgst Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 2,405
    First Anniversary 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes First Comment
    Swaye's Wigwam
    I believe so. Price action of banks since reporting has been Aful.

    Did average down with Viac and Disca, but sitting tight to see what happens.

    This market last 6-8 months has been bi-polar. Either the reopening trade is working and those stocks go higher why the Nasdaq underperforms, or the opposite happens.

    Today was a day where everything except pharmaceuticals was thrown out.
  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 22,706
    First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes Photogenic
    Market rallying today. Maybe premature.

    I'll leave it to @DawgsCanDance , our resident Mensa on market data and patterns to sort this out. He's the guy who has the historical perspective and can translate timing with micro trends and turn it into a reasonable macro picture for those of us with Speed Limit IQs (credit to @HoustonHusky with that beauty, that is going into the rotation).

    Creep
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 100,717
    First Anniversary First Comment 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes
    Swaye's Wigwam
    So the Dow is at 34,000 plus or minus today. It boggles the mind

    Just did a quick google and the Dow on Dec 31 1999 was 11,497

    Going back to 26K would be a big haircut

    Dropping to 20K would be a panic unseen since the 30's

    The 1989 crash came with a market at a "record high" of 2,791. It dropped 190 and is still recalled to this day.

    No point really.
  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 22,706
    First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes Photogenic

    So the Dow is at 34,000 plus or minus today. It boggles the mind

    Just did a quick google and the Dow on Dec 31 1999 was 11,497

    Going back to 26K would be a big haircut

    Dropping to 20K would be a panic unseen since the 30's

    The 1989 crash came with a market at a "record high" of 2,791. It dropped 190 and is still recalled to this day.

    No point really.

    Well, one point: the basic predicate for a crash is a red-hot market.
  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 26,538
    First Anniversary First Comment 5 Up Votes Combo Breaker
    He's always been a pussy so prob
  • TheRoarOfTheCrowdTheRoarOfTheCrowd Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 1,550
    5 Awesomes First Anniversary First Comment 5 Up Votes
    Founders Club

    Market rallying today. Maybe premature.

    I'll leave it to @DawgsCanDance , our resident Mensa on market data and patterns to sort this out. He's the guy who has the historical perspective and can translate timing with micro trends and turn it into a reasonable macro picture for those of us with Speed Limit IQs (credit to @HoustonHusky with that beauty, that is going into the rotation).

    Creep

    I will comment later, doing a webinar later today on market rotation characteristics of the current cycle so accumulating and formatting material now....
  • EwaDawgEwaDawg Member Posts: 3,989
    First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes First Comment

    Market rallying today. Maybe premature.

    I'll leave it to @DawgsCanDance , our resident Mensa on market data and patterns to sort this out. He's the guy who has the historical perspective and can translate timing with micro trends and turn it into a reasonable macro picture for those of us with Speed Limit IQs (credit to @HoustonHusky with that beauty, that is going into the rotation).

    Creep

    I will comment later, doing a webinar later today on market rotation characteristics of the current cycle so accumulating and formatting material now....
    Okay. inquiring minds want to know.
  • TheRoarOfTheCrowdTheRoarOfTheCrowd Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 1,550
    5 Awesomes First Anniversary First Comment 5 Up Votes
    Founders Club
    edited April 2021
    So yah; so many moving parts right now... to be brief, my view is that the market players have fallen in love with the idea of theme investing since the beginning of 2020 before the market crash

    As 2020 opened, tech was hot as well as a lot of breadth in the market

    Then we saw the COVID crash and the new theme was throw your hands in the air and run for the hills

    Next we saw the fed and central banks intervene and the new theme was believe in the power of the fed

    Next it was everyone was stuck at home so buy biotech, and the technology, entertainment food booze and ammunition that you need to hang out at home

    Then after the first move, investors thought about what else might move in the earlier phases of recovery

    Then investors started buying into the reopening concept of the new economic order

    Then investors jumped into energy as oil finally started to make a move, and jumped into second stage countries like Brazil, India, Mexico and Australia as their currencies started to surge...

    Meanwhile tech continued to surge and Tesla moved up 1200 percent in 15 months

    On 2/15/21 the tech market broke down and since then the market has looked for new leadership

    The market now lacks a new theme to believe in; the second wave of COVID is shutting down lots of locations around the world, China, the Soviet Union and other international providers have admitted their vacination is a bust with 50 percent efficacy, interest rates are rising with long treasuries down 12 percent recently, Biden is proposing profound changes to taxation and people are now wondering how long the protection from vaccinations will be good for while lots of folks are not even going to be vaccinated, and substantial parts of the world have less than 10 percent of the population vaccinated if you even believe in that

    virus mutation is probably the next theme

    The market now lacks the opportunity theme that they crave
  • TheRoarOfTheCrowdTheRoarOfTheCrowd Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 1,550
    5 Awesomes First Anniversary First Comment 5 Up Votes
    Founders Club
    edited April 2021
    meanwhile the market is trading at all time highs versus earnings, revenue, cash flow, net income and debt Levels and is frankly counting on the presumed good news of the pending restoration of normalized inventory levels at higher pricing to justify the short term valuation during highly challenging economic disruption times
  • FireCohenFireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    First Anniversary 5 Awesomes Combo Breaker 5 Up Votes
    We all know baseman’s pull out game is not strong. Lol
  • BasemanBaseman Member Posts: 12,365
    First Anniversary First Comment 5 Up Votes Combo Breaker
    FireCohen said:

    We all know baseman’s pull out game is not strong. Lol




  • SwayeSwaye Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 41,044
    First Anniversary Combo Breaker 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes
    Founders Club
    Baseman said:

    30% cash after exiting my Travelers and VNQ positions this morning in IRAs.

    The knock out earnings by the banks followed by the fade trade last week suggests trouble ahead.

    Time to pump the brakes when everybody is talking about the difference between Cryptos and $43B Palantir and 2000. Keeping my 10 shares of Coinbase. Glad I went small

    Hold on to your good companies in your taxable accounts. Have dry powder.

    What should I do in the sock drawer? Transfer some to the underoos section?
  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 26,538
    First Anniversary First Comment 5 Up Votes Combo Breaker
    Swaye said:

    Baseman said:

    30% cash after exiting my Travelers and VNQ positions this morning in IRAs.

    The knock out earnings by the banks followed by the fade trade last week suggests trouble ahead.

    Time to pump the brakes when everybody is talking about the difference between Cryptos and $43B Palantir and 2000. Keeping my 10 shares of Coinbase. Glad I went small

    Hold on to your good companies in your taxable accounts. Have dry powder.

    What should I do in the sock drawer? Transfer some to the underoos section?
    I switched from white no show socks to black.
  • dirtysouwfdawgdirtysouwfdawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 11,704
    5 Awesomes First Comment 5 Up Votes First Anniversary
    Swaye's Wigwam
    FireCohen said:

    We all know baseman’s pull out game is not strong. Lol

    Ummm... if we’re talking poor pull out came I’m probably the winner here.
  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 22,706
    First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes Photogenic
    So kick ass earnings reports and the market pulls back.

    The stock market is not only detached from the economy at large. It’s detached from reality. It seems to operate completely of its own internally-derived forces.

    It’s not even black jack. It’s the roulette wheel.
Sign In or Register to comment.