Are We In a Housing Bubble? (And Will It Burst?!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8B-Com5Z2kComments
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Who's the hot blonde?
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Stream of Uhauls leaving California @Doogles
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My problem is Sacramento is one of the places the "California Cash Buyers" are flocking towards.YellowSnow said:Stream of Uhauls leaving California @Doogles
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I'm a simple, low IQ Hispanic man with communist tendencies ( @SFGbob ), so I look for the simple answer first: what could happen to cause prices to go down?
Whether it's a bubble - the definition of which eludes me (see comment re low IQ) - is not the key question. The key question is what are the key drivers for home demand? One of the key drivers is availability of financing (available credit); and a sibling of that driver is the cost of credit.
I see nothing that tells me credit is going to tighten; that's usually driven by a high default rate. Maybe.
But the cost of credit ... that's the discussion. As I've said elsewhere, Americans buy things on the basis of affordable monthly payments. They're not old school like @RaceBannon and think about, you know, paying the fucking thing off. Just so long as the monthly doesn't interfere with life too much, Americans are in! When you really think about it, it's not an entirely irrational m/o.
Anyway, any serious uptick in the mortgage rates are what will fundamentally affect demand for housing and what people are willing to pay.
Not sure I'd bet the farm on Dave's simple "it's not going to go down during the next ten years." We live in economically uncertain times. -
No kidding? What's the reason for Sac town?Doogles said:
My problem is Sacramento is one of the places the "California Cash Buyers" are flocking towards.YellowSnow said:Stream of Uhauls leaving California @Doogles
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I’m so fucking tired of hearing about housing bubbles. Articles like this keep appearing in the Seattle Times every week:
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-extends-a-streak-home-prices-again-rise-faster-than-almost-any-other-major-city/
And this shit is happening all over the world.
https://www.biznews.com/premium/2021/03/29/house-prices-2
I thought for years that the market would crash, or at least cool down, here in Seattle but I’ve been wrong every goddamn time.
@creepycoug is right, long as there’s cheap credit nothing is changing. And the powers that be know if they raise interest rates it might derail the recovery from COVID / cause this house of cards to come crashing down.
Nothing is going to change. -
I guess we're all plaigairism @HoustonHusky 's shit at this point.Doog_de_Jour said:I’m so fucking tired of hearing about housing bubbles. Articles like this keep appearing in the Seattle Times every week:
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-extends-a-streak-home-prices-again-rise-faster-than-almost-any-other-major-city/
And this shit is happening all over the world.
https://www.biznews.com/premium/2021/03/29/house-prices-2
I thought for years that the market would crash, or at least cool down, here in Seattle but I’ve been wrong every goddamn time.
@creepycoug is right, long as there’s cheap credit nothing is changing. And the powers that be know if they raise interest rates it might derail the recovery from COVID / cause this house of cards to come crashing down.
Nothing is going to change. -
It’s appalling. I understand that an affordable Seattle is never coming back. It’s SanFran North...we’ve known this for awhile now. But when we’re talking about housing in more remote areas of the Midwest and they’re experience this trend, it’s not a simple supply and demand issue.
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The simplest answer is Bay Area run off. I will sound like a homer here, but Sacramento is a pretty quality central location. It should be the Nashville of the west coast, party city on the river, but we know who runs this state and we'll just keep that in the tug.creepycoug said:
No kidding? What's the reason for Sac town?Doogles said:
My problem is Sacramento is one of the places the "California Cash Buyers" are flocking towards.YellowSnow said:Stream of Uhauls leaving California @Doogles
I live 1.5 hours from Tahoe (world Class)
1.5 hours from Oakland/SF (world Class)
50 minutes to Napa (world Class)
3.5 hours from El Cap and Yosemite (world Class)
Hell, I could have lunch with @BearsWiin in Santa Cruz in 2.5 hours and throw him into Big Sur by 3.
You get the point, the city of Sac itself is small potatoes, but a stones throw away from destinations people visit from all over the world.
Getting the Golden 1 center and the kings to stay was huge, more buildings are going up. Billboards are visible on the freeway which is weird to see. It's embraced bullshit hipster culture but with that comes fancy bars and restaurants. We're still a cowtown, but It's growing fast and bigly.
As a kid, Several of my friends parents were SF commuters (100k in sac or 200k in SF?, makes the 5am drive to beat the traffic worth it). Work from home has greatly increased the desirability of the area. You cannot buy a house in El Dorado Hills without a bay area cash offer 50k over asking. The nicer homes are 100-200k over asking with 20ish bids. It's insanity.
Some one can crunch the actual numbers of it all, but i've lived here pretty much all my life and it's just what i'm hearing/experiencing.
The remodeling company I work for is 17-22 weeks out on installation. We can't keep up. -
Appreciate the shout-out. The main thing I see crashing the party is when the Fed loses control of interest rates...ie they try to hold them down but are printing so much money that everyone realizes the Fed are a bunch of buffoons and ignores them.creepycoug said:I'm a simple, low IQ Hispanic man with communist tendencies ( @SFGbob ), so I look for the simple answer first: what could happen to cause prices to go down?
Whether it's a bubble - the definition of which eludes me (see comment re low IQ) - is not the key question. The key question is what are the key drivers for home demand? One of the key drivers is availability of financing (available credit); and a sibling of that driver is the cost of credit.
I see nothing that tells me credit is going to tighten; that's usually driven by a high default rate. Maybe.
But the cost of credit ... that's the discussion. As I've said elsewhere, Americans buy things on the basis of affordable monthly payments. They're not old school like @RaceBannon and think about, you know, paying the fucking thing off. Just so long as the monthly doesn't interfere with life too much, Americans are in! When you really think about it, it's not an entirely irrational m/o.
Anyway, any serious uptick in the mortgage rates are what will fundamentally affect demand for housing and what people are willing to pay.
Not sure I'd bet the farm on Dave's simple "it's not going to go down during the next ten years." We live in economically uncertain times.
I do think it is coming, but I don’t think we are anywhere near that point yet. The govt and economy can’t afford higher interest rates, and there are many more tricks the Fed can use to prop up this house of cards. There may be some bumps, but the money supply is only going one direction right now and that is up. Looking at the Central Bank balance sheets we are just at the inflection point of an exponential curve.
Funny side story...was in Oklahoma City this week for work. Talking to a guy up there and he was talking about house prices up there being $250/sqft in the nice areas and $150/sqft in the burbs. I was stunned...even more so when I looked at Zillow and he was lowballing reality there.
