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Recruiting presser tidbit
Tailgater
Member Posts: 1,389
Coach Petersen mentioned something in his presser on Wednesday that I think is truly amazing and has become almost legendary here in Boise. In reference to the Q&A on the business of star ratings for recruits and how some 2 or 3-star recruits would probably be higher rated if the recruiting process was different, Petersen mentioned a recruiting class he had years ago when he and his BSU staff signed only eight(8) recruits on LOI day....... and all eight of those players are in the NFL! It's not about Mountain West versus Pac-12 caliber football playing athletes, it's always been about the coaches as recruiters and mentors signing the athletes they know or believe can be developed into a team that wins at the level they compete in. Obviously, the higher the level of competition, the higher the recruits will be rated as defined by conference strength and from that comes most of the consideration for how many stars a recruit receives.
The recruiting experts know which athletes the coaches are most interested in by the time the kids are juniors in high school or before and assign the recruit rating stars accordingly. The more talented and athletic the recruit, the more they are sought by the big schools with the best coaching and the habit of always being in the Top-10 or Top-25. It's the mass of average recruits with 3-star or lower rating where the recruiting experts are mostly guessing and on which the best recruiters work the hardest to eliminate guess work. The coaches who most every year recruit the best classes cannot guess and typically rely on their own evaluations. If Petersen is the head football coach we think he is, Husky Football can only get better in the win column and I expect his recruiting classes will be higher rated starting next year. This will not just be the result of better athletes with greater potential wanting to be Huskies, but also because UW recruits will be more esteemed by the recruiting experts simply because they've been offered by Petersen. The rise in Husky Football will more directly lift the star-ratings for local in-state recruits as UW once again becomes what we should of always been...... a football power on the west coast and nationally.
For those who are hung up on star-ratings for recruits and the fact that the more stars a recruiting class accumulates the higher it must be rated by the recruiting experts,....... the reality is that any class can be better or worse than expected in terms of future contribution depending on how it's members develop as football playing athletes in the 3-5 years before graduation. The experts who assign a 5 thru 2-star or no-star rating to each recruit actually don't know enough about football or what makes a football player good, great, or otherwise to predict how well recruits might turn out as they develop from prep teenagers into collegiate men. But the good coaches do know because their livelyhood depends on it and that's the true relevance of OKGs.
The recruiting experts know which athletes the coaches are most interested in by the time the kids are juniors in high school or before and assign the recruit rating stars accordingly. The more talented and athletic the recruit, the more they are sought by the big schools with the best coaching and the habit of always being in the Top-10 or Top-25. It's the mass of average recruits with 3-star or lower rating where the recruiting experts are mostly guessing and on which the best recruiters work the hardest to eliminate guess work. The coaches who most every year recruit the best classes cannot guess and typically rely on their own evaluations. If Petersen is the head football coach we think he is, Husky Football can only get better in the win column and I expect his recruiting classes will be higher rated starting next year. This will not just be the result of better athletes with greater potential wanting to be Huskies, but also because UW recruits will be more esteemed by the recruiting experts simply because they've been offered by Petersen. The rise in Husky Football will more directly lift the star-ratings for local in-state recruits as UW once again becomes what we should of always been...... a football power on the west coast and nationally.
For those who are hung up on star-ratings for recruits and the fact that the more stars a recruiting class accumulates the higher it must be rated by the recruiting experts,....... the reality is that any class can be better or worse than expected in terms of future contribution depending on how it's members develop as football playing athletes in the 3-5 years before graduation. The experts who assign a 5 thru 2-star or no-star rating to each recruit actually don't know enough about football or what makes a football player good, great, or otherwise to predict how well recruits might turn out as they develop from prep teenagers into collegiate men. But the good coaches do know because their livelyhood depends on it and that's the true relevance of OKGs.
Comments
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Disagree. Any fat fuck with a computer and an internet connection can evaluate teen boy hips, length, body lean, and pad level. I quit playing football after 8th grade and I have this dialed in. Coach Pete would be wise to call me. I can also tell him which kids are too edgy and which ones are OKG.
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What I love is that they nab high-ceiling guys / NFL guys the star-fuckers miss.
On the middle / low 3-star side, scout gets very lazy as it gets closer to signing day and increasingly mails it in on the evaluation side since they are too busy deep-throating 5 star guys to be the first to have the "scoop". -
Nice post tailgetter, but It is about stars often. Stringfellow will go on and be a legit all American at USC. Of course there are exceptions but a lot of 4-5 stars pan out, and their numbers are far lower than NR to 3 star kids.. I'm sure there's a basement dweller who can crunch star/success rates. Isnt there a consensus that 3 - star kids aren't considered scrubs?
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Meds dialed today. What a relief after witnessing last night's meltdown.puppylove_sugarsteel said:Nice post tailgetter, but It is about stars often. Stringfellow will go on and be a legit all American at USC. Of course there are exceptions but a lot of 4-5 stars pan out, and their numbers are far lower than NR to 3 star kids.. I'm sure there's a basement dweller who can crunch star/success rates. Isnt there a consensus that 3 - star kids aren't considered scrubs?
I vaguely remember someone doing some simple math. I think it was Yaledawg. 5* recruits panned out at about 20%. Too bad I can't remember how "panning out" was determined. I think it might have meant that they played in the NFL. 3* recruits were something like 2%-5%.
I could actually be pretty far off on those percentages, but the gap was that wide. -
Thanks. Yah, I'm too lazy these days to research what actually happens to the 5,4,3-star, etc recruits after they start their college careers, but it is an interesting subject. What I recall from the last time I looked into it, most recruiting classes have about 50% or less of the student-athletes who sign LOI's actually contribute something to the football programs they select. "Contribute" would mean they become part of the team core as starters and backups or the top 50 or less players in the program at any given time. If you spread that 50 over 5 classes assuming all new recruits will redshirt, the average real contribution for each class would be around 8, probably not more than 10 to 12. So, the collegiate football system is mathematically set up to keep perking along even when probably half of each recruiting class will not contribute fully to the program due to not making it in the classroom or even into school or due to attrition such as injury, drop-out, or being simply not good enough to ever get off the bench for some PT. That's not so bad when considering that only about 60% of the general student population survive academics far enough to graduate with a degree.
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Year in and year out I would trade for Alabama or USCs class staight accross. Coaching matters more, but year in an year out having that talent to work with sustains programs.
A great coach and highly rated recruits = abundance. -
Only if they bleed purple and gold!!1!!!!1!!MikeDamone said:Year in and year out I would trade for Alabama or USCs class staight accross. Coaching matters more, but year in an year out having that talent to work with sustains programs.
A great coach and highly rated recruits = abundance. -
And you forgot they must have feces in their throatDerekJohnson said:
Only if they bleed purple and gold!!1!!!!1!!MikeDamone said:Year in and year out I would trade for Alabama or USCs class staight accross. Coaching matters more, but year in an year out having that talent to work with sustains programs.
A great coach and highly rated recruits = abundance.
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Still got Sarks dick in your mouth. Shut up already. You're king of the fucking doogs. Sick of it.puppylove_sugarsteel said:Nice post tailgetter, but It is about stars often. Stringfellow will go on and be a legit all American at USC. Of course there are exceptions but a lot of 4-5 stars pan out, and their numbers are far lower than NR to 3 star kids.. I'm sure there's a basement dweller who can crunch star/success rates. Isnt there a consensus that 3 - star kids aren't considered scrubs?
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This is where politics come into play. Scout does fine with the 5 star guys (hard to miss), but the middle/low 3 star guys get rated because they go to camps, play ball with interviews, always answer texts/calls, etc. A kid I went to high school with was a three star TE and he didn't even start for our team and probably caught 5 balls all season. He was 6'4" 225 and ran a 4.7 at a camp, which was solely the reason he was a 3 star.HFNY said:What I love is that they nab high-ceiling guys / NFL guys the star-fuckers miss.
On the middle / low 3-star side, scout gets very lazy as it gets closer to signing day and increasingly mails it in on the evaluation side since they are too busy deep-throating 5 star guys to be the first to have the "scoop".
There are some guys who are better athletes that are two stars and unranked, but they don't want to drop the three star kids they have gotten to know even lower. Guys who get missed in earlier evaluations because they didn't go to all the camps get royally fucked by the ranking system. No matter how well they do in games, they aren't rising higher than three stars because the guys that know the other kids, don't want to drop them too far.
