What’s it going to take?
Comments
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It'll be interesting how much of the industries that are, by their nature, vulnerable to pandemic shutdown we'll see return.haie said:We artificially half shut down our economy. Different situation than a normal recession.
Some industries have skyrocketed when others have, again, been artificially killed.
There's still a great demand for some of those industries (restaurant, public house, gym).
Who in their right mind will invest capital in a restaurant? There will be great demand, but who will want to do it? -
It's my go-to line: where else you gonna go?HoustonHusky said:I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.
That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here. -
We? have kicked the can down the road to June now
https://patch.com/california/temecula/s/hell5/california-extends-eviction-moratorium-through-june
With the state's eviction moratorium set to expire at the end of January, California lawmakers passed two bills extending it through June.
An eviction moratorium extension and $2.6 billion in rental relief overwhelmingly passed both chambers of California's legislature Thursday amid questions from legislators over the efficacy of the state's rollout plan and the equity of the money's distribution among small, rural areas.
The state's eviction moratorium will be extended until June 30 if signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, who supported the legislation during last-minute negotiations among legislative leaders, tenant associations and the powerful California Apartment Association.
California's families need protections NOW from eviction.Today we're announcing an agreement to extend eviction moratorium through 6/30.We're ensuring that up to $2.6 billion in renter aid is administered quickly & equitably. #CaliforniaForAll https://t.co/g0xR3SYasv
— Office of the Governor of California (@CAgovernor) January 25, 2021
The Temecula Pea Patch is my source
Speaking of Husky Stadium......... -
My reading comprehension might not be the best, since it’s Friday and I’m skimming through these poasts in between seeing clients, but not a lot of answers to the OP’s question. We know what’s propping things up, but what’s the piece in this economic game of Jenga that will cause things to finally collapse?
Seems like one (or any combination) of these things might be it:
- As Race alluded to, COVID relief running out
- COVID vaccine not working/distributed as fast as we? hoped
- Loan or credit delinquencies finally get to be too much
- More Robinhood/GameStop-esque type bullshit causes investors to lose their damn minds
- The specter of inflation that has been discussed in other threads
- As HoustonHusky said, unemployment numbers getting worse
Again, maybe I’m stressing out for nothing, but it’s seems weird that after the huge dip in March of 2020, the year closed with this:
S&P 500 gained 15.6%.
Nasdaq gained 43.7%.
Dow Jones gained 6.6%. -
HoustonHusky said:
I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.
That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.
Recession is coming? We’ve been in a recession since February 2020.HoustonHusky said:I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.
That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.
The stock market is not the economy. -
somewhere not inherently evil. a place not founded on a history of racism and genocide. a place with no white people.creepycoug said:
It's my go-to line: where else you gonna go?HoustonHusky said:I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.
That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here. -
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Technically not in a recession since Q4 saw a 6% growth in real GDP and Q3 was a whopping 33% in real GDP. That’s two straight quarters of growth. Not a recession.FremontTroll said:HoustonHusky said:I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.
That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.
Recession is coming? We’ve been in a recession since February 2020.HoustonHusky said:I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.
That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.
The stock market is not the economy.
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@creepycoug
I would say larger gyms and corporate breweries (multiple locations, brew their own beer, distribution, godly covered outdoor areas like Heathen in downtown Van) will be just fine, and replicating them toward the end of this (whenever the fuck that is) is a decent investment.
Too drunk to quote you properly, so I apologise (since it's your fucking bored) -
The Fed giveth
The Fed taketh
